Demography: Population Studies Chapter 2

Lesson Aims: - Where in the World do People Live and Why - Why do populations rise or fall in places? - Why does population composition matter? - How do governments affect population change?

Population Stats Challenge With a partner, try to list the top ten highest country populations in the world. Please place in rank order: World’s Most Populous Countries 2011 China - 1,341,335,000 India - 1,224,614,000 United States - 310,384,000 Indonesia - 239,781,000 Brazil - 194,946,000 Pakistan - 173,593,000 Nigeria - 158,423,000 Bangladesh - 148,692,000 Russia - 142,958,000 Japan - 126,536,000 Source: http://www.worldatlas.com/aatlas/populations/ctypopls.htm

Population Stats Challenge Now try to list the top ten highest city populations in the world. Please place in rank order: There are actually a couple of ways you can define a city (by including suburbs or just the city proper), and therefore more than one list.

How do we measure Population? Population Density – measure of total population relative to land size (arithmetic population density). Which are the most densely populated countries? What about the least?

World Population Density What inquiry questions could you ask about this map?

Physiologic Population Density – number of people per unit area of agriculturally productive land (takes this map into account). What inquiry questions could you ask about this map?

Population Distribution – Descriptions of locations on the Earth’s surface where individuals or groups (depending on the scale) live. What inquiry questions could you ask about this map? Dot Map of World Population – On this map, one dot represents 100,000 people

Why do Populations Rise or Fall in Particular Places?

Population Growth The three main causes of population change: Births - usually measured using the birth rate (number of live births per 1,000 of the population per year). Deaths - usually measured using the death rate (number of deaths per 1,000 of the population per year). 3) Migration - the movement of people in and out of an area. What affects the rate of change? The difference between the birth rate and the death rate of a country or place is called the natural increase. The natural increase is calculated by subtracting the death rate from the birth rate. natural increase = birth rate - death rate

What inquiry questions could you ask about this map? World Birth Rate – number of births in a year per 1,000 people.

What inquiry questions could you ask about this map? World Mortality Rate – number of deaths in a year per 1,000 people.

Patterns of Population Growth Population will decline if death rate is greater than birth rate. Population will increase if death rate is less than birth rate.

A Population Bomb? Malthus (early 1800s) worried about population growing exponentially and resources growing linearly. Ehrlich (1960s) warned of a population bomb because the world’s population was outpacing food production.

The Demographic Transition in Great Britain Studied the change in birth rates, death rates, and natural growth rates over the course of British industrialization. Found a transition occurred when death rates decline and then birth rates decline, resulting in a low or sustained growth rate.

The Demographic Transition Model

The Demographic Transition Stage 1: Low Growth (pre-industrial) Stage 2: High Growth Stage 3: Moderate Growth Stage 4: Low Growth or Stationary Stage 5: Stationary population level (SPL)? Stage 6: A rebound? With high HDI? Study the Stages of the DTM worksheet and try to match the stages to countries today

Application of the DTM? Activity: try the DTM Living Graph activity Limitations of the DTM DTM has a questionable applicability to less economically developed countries (LEDCs), where wealth and information access are limited. DTM assumes that population changes are induced by industrial changes and increased wealth, without taking into account the role of social change in determining birth rates, e.g., the education of women.

Why does Population Composition Matter? Population Composition is concerned with: Sex distribution Age distribution Both within a country, region, or place. Why does Population Composition Matter?

Population Pyramids – Charts that show the percentages of each age group in the total population, divided by gender. For poorer countries, the chart is shaped like a pyramid. Infant mortality rates are high, life expectancy is shorter.

Affect of AIDS on population pyramid for South Africa. Predicted population for 2035, without and with AIDS. With AIDS, looks like a population “chimney.” What are the consequences for family structures if AIDS prevails in South Africa?

Population Pyramids – For wealthier countries, the chart is shaped like a lopsided vase. Population is aging, TFRs are declining.

Population Pyramids – Analyzing population pyramids What can a population pyramid tell us about a population? It gives us information about birth and death rates as well as life expectancy. A population pyramid tells us how many dependents there are. There are two groups of dependents; young dependents (aged below 15) and elderly dependents (aged over 65). Dependents rely upon the economically active for economic support. Many LEDCs have a high number of young dependents, whilst many MEDCs have a growing number of elderly dependents. How do pyramids change over time? A triangular pyramid shows a population with a high number of young dependents and a low life expectancy. A population pyramid that has fairly straight sides shows a population with a falling birth rate and a rising life expectancy. Over time, as a country develops, the shape changes from triangular to barrel-like. Places with an ageing population and a very low birth rate would have a structure that looks like an upside-down pyramid.

Population Pyramid Activity Compare the two population pyramids below: UK, 2000 Mozambique, 2000 What stage are these countries at in the DTM and why? What challenges and/or opportunities may each country face based on this information?

Population Pyramid Activity Now compare these population pyramids below: UK, 2025 Mozambique, 2025 What stages are these countries predicted to be at in the DTM and why? What has changed since the year 2000? Are the challenges and/or opportunities faced by each country still the same?

Aging Populations To replace the population, Total Fertility Rate (TFR) must be 2.1. Some places are far from this figure e.g. TFR in Bologna, Italy is 0.8 Discussion Questions So, why are some populations aging? What are the impacts of an aging population on a country? What are the “solutions” to an aging population?

Government Population Policies Expansive Population Policies - Encourages population growth, with large families Used in communist societies in the past (China, Soviet Union) Used today to combat ageing populations (France) Eugenic Population Policies - Favors one racial or cultural sector over others. (Nazi Germany, 1960s US) Restrictive Population Policies - range from toleration of unapproved birth control to outright prohibition of large families (China today)

China’s One Child Policy What are some of the limitations, unintended consequences, and contradictions found in government policies toward population growth?