NGGPS NGGPS Priorities: the three legs of the stool

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Presentation transcript:

NGGPS - 2017 NGGPS Priorities: the three legs of the stool We’re making a lot of progress!!! NGGPS Priorities: the three legs of the stool Phase 3: Implement advanced dynamic core (FV3) for global weather forecast applications Highly scalable; non-hydrostatic; Extend forecast skill beyond 8 to 10 days; improve hurricane track and intensity forecast Physics (scale aware, etc.) Data Assimilation (JEDI, JCSDA) We will continue work to work in parallel on: Aerosols and Atmospheric Composition Marine Prediction (ocean, waves, sea ice, and marine data assimilation) Land surface prediction and land data assimilation Nesting (includes hurricanes and convective systems) Post-Processing Ensemble Development Overarching System (architecture/integration incl NEMS/ESMF) Verification and Validation Testbeds A research to operations (R2O) initiative is underway to design, develop and implement the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) by 2019. This will be a fully coupled system to extend useful forecast skill to 30 days. This system will be designed to utilize new high performance computing capabilities. This is not just an NWS effort, it is a community effort with participation of NOAA and other federal laboratories and universities. For example, the new dynamical core for NGGPS will be selected from several dynamical cores undergoing testing and evaluation. These dynamical cores are provided by: NCAR, NOAA/GFDL, NOAA/ESRL, Navy and NOAA/NWS/EMC.

Challenges Growth of “opportunities” Community – takes resources, effort, and attention New “groups” (boards, committees, teams, etc.; e.g. community planning group) Meetings Central role in NGGPS (“2-O” & “O-2”) A research to operations (R2O) initiative is underway to design, develop and implement the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) by 2019. This will be a fully coupled system to extend useful forecast skill to 30 days. This system will be designed to utilize new high performance computing capabilities. This is not just an NWS effort, it is a community effort with participation of NOAA and other federal laboratories and universities. For example, the new dynamical core for NGGPS will be selected from several dynamical cores undergoing testing and evaluation. These dynamical cores are provided by: NCAR, NOAA/GFDL, NOAA/ESRL, Navy and NOAA/NWS/EMC.

World’s Best Weather Prediction Capability NOAA Governance/Organization (including R20/O2R relationship) Reduce risk and expedite transition/implementation of most promising capability Develop a new community approach for model/component development External and Internal Employ Global Modeling Test Bed (GMTB)/Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) and a more robust Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) to encourage and facilitate community interaction Community modeling workshop planned Accelerate O2R & R2O Consider “DTG like” approach for targeted/accelerated development of physics and data assimilation capabilities Plans in place for development/implementation of Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) Investing in Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI)

World’s Best Weather Prediction Capability Extend Weather Forecast to 30 days Improved coordination and collaboration through ESPC Implement a fully-coupled NWP System Atmosphere, Ocean, Sea Ice, Land Surface, Waves, Aerosols and Atmospheric Composition Support development of products for weeks 3 and 4 Support unification of the NWS Numerical Weather Prediction Suite Across temporal and spatial scales Optimize all aspects of high performance computing (allocation, resourcing, and advanced architecture/algorithms) Increase effectiveness of product distribution Post-processing, assessments, and display