Global Economy and Business MOBILITY AND MIGRATION Prof.ssa Luisa Natale http://www.docente.unicas.it/luisa_natale/ email oli59@mclink.it

MOBILITY AND MIGRATION 4a. MEASURES

Measures The study of migration focuses on: Intensity (absolute values, rate, …) Distance and direction of flow - that is, specifying the origin and destination of the migration flows C) The structure of the migrant population according to the main features of biodemographic, socio-economic, ethnic and cultural type

A) Intensity of migration Estimate of NET MIGRATION Net total of migrants during the period, that is, the total number of immigrants less the annual number of emigrants, including both citizens and noncitizens

NET MIGRATION ESTIMATE A. Direct estimate For example: Equation of Population: Italy 2010 (slide 6) Source →//demo.istat.it/index.html → Bilancio demografico 2010 B. Indirect estimate

Total Population Balance nPt = nPt-1+nB∆t - nD∆t +n I∆t - nE∆t B = births D = deaths I = Immigration E = Emigration t = time, n = type of population (in this case, total population) nB∆t - nD∆t = Natural Increase n I∆t - nE∆t = Net Migration

Total Population Increase nPt - nPt-1 = Total population increase nPt - nPt-1= nB∆t - nD∆t +n I∆t - nE∆t This is the classical definition of a population balance

The real population balance In countries with census and population registers, the balance is not merely a result of natural and migration increase Other components are present in a balance (see, for instance, Italy)

The two population balances nPt - nPt-1= nB∆t - nD∆t +n I∆t - nE∆t the classical population balance nPt - nPt-1= nB∆t - nD∆t +n I∆t - nE∆t + n OI∆t - nOE∆t + n IntI∆t - nIntE∆t n OI∆t - nOE∆t = other registered/cancelled (n IntI∆t - nIntE∆t )= total internal balance the real population balance (see Italy)

The internal migration balance (n IntI∆t - nIntE∆t )= total internal balance = enrolled from others municipalities-cancelled to other municipalities It should be egual to zero, but due to late in the process of registration/deregistration of flows in each municipalities the balance is always different from zero (often fifty-sixty thousands of movements, very scarce in comparison of 1,3 millions of internal movements)

EXERCISE Write: 1) the Equation of total population in Italy, 2010, 31.12 (Direct estimate ,slide 12) 2) total population increase (Direct estimate, slide 12)

TOTAL POPULATION BALANCE A. Direct estimate (Italy, 2010)

EXERCISE Natural Increase= nB∆t - nD∆t = 561944 – 587488 = -25544 Net (International) Migration = Enrolled from abroad – cancelled to abroad = +n I∆t - nE∆t = 458856 – 78771= 380,085 Technical balance n OI∆t - nOE∆t = other registered – others cancelled = 40040 – 119416 = - 79376 (n IntI∆t - nIntE∆t )=total internal balance=1374363-1363414=10949 Other components (net migration due to other reasons):-79376 – 10949 = - 68,427 Net Migration (other reasons compr.): 380085 – 68427= 311,658

Equation of Population: Italy 2010, 31.12 60,626,442 = 60,340,328 +(-25,544)+ 311,658 where: Natural Increase: - 25,544 Net (International) Migration: + 380,085 Other components (net migration due to other reasons): - 68,427 Net Migration (other reasons compr.): + 311,658 Total Increase: 60,626,442 - 60,340,328 = 286,114

FOREIGN POPULATION BALANCE A. Direct estimate

Equation of Foreign population Population Total Increase → fPt - fPt-1 fPt - fPt-1 = fBt - fDt + fIt - fEt - fNt +fOIt - fOEt + + fIntI∆t - nIntE∆t B=births, D=deaths, I=Immigration, E=Emigration, N=Naturalization O=technical adijustments, Int = internal moves; where: fBt - fDt = Natural Increase fIt - fEt = Net (International) Migration (enrolled from abroad-cancelled to abroad) fOIt- fOEt =Technical balance (other enrolled-other cancelled) fIntI∆t - nIntE∆t =Internal moves (enrolled from other municipalities - cancelled to others municipalities)

EXERCISE Write: 1) the Equation of foreign population in Italy, 2010, 31.12 (Direct estimate, slide 12) 2) foreign population increase (Direct estimate, slide 12)

Equation of Foreign population fPt - fPt-1 = fBt - fDt + fIt - fEt - fNt +fOIt - fOEt + + fIntI∆t - nIntE∆t B=births, D=deaths, I=Immigration, E=Emigration, N=Naturalization O=technical adijustments, Int = internal moves; where: fBt - fDt = Natural Increase = +72,958= 78,082 - 5,124 fIt - fEt = Net (International) Migration (enrolled from abroad-cancelled to abroad)= 424,499 - 32,817 = 391682 fOIt- fOEt =Technical balance (other enrolled-other cancelled)= 22272-91093 = - 68821 fIntI∆t - nIntE∆t =Internal moves (enrolled from other municipalities-cancelled to others municipalities) = 234190 – 228813= 5377

FOREIGN NET MIGRATION ESTIMATE A. Direct estimate Net (International) Migration: + 391682 Net Migration (other reasons compr.): +391682 – 68821 + 5377 = + 328238

Equation of Foreign Population (Italy 2010) 4,570,317 = 4,235,059 + 72,958 + 328,238 + (-65,938) 4,570,317 - 4,235,059 = + 72,958 + 328,238 - 65,938 335,258 = 335,258 Total Increase = 335,258 Net Migration (other reasons compr.): +391,682 – 68,821 + 5,377 = +328238 Natural Increase = +72,958 Naturalised = -65,938

Foreign population increase (Italy 2010) 4570317 - 4235059 = +335258

EXERCISE Calculate the equation of the foreign population by distinguish each component Resident foreign population at 31 December and demographic balance from 9 October 2011 to 31 December 2011. Italy

Foreign contribution to the increase During the 2010 (but the same happened in the previous years…) the total population increase in Italy could be disaggregated in two component:

NET MIGRATION ESTIMATE B. Indirect estimate Estimation of net migration (nNMt) by the availability of natural increase (nBt - nDt) and population (type n) in two points (nPt and nPt-1): nNMt = nPt - nPt-1 – (nBt - nDt)

Example: Italy, 1992-2001 Population at 1 January 1992 = 56,773 Population at 1 January 2002 = 56,994 Total increase = + 223 Births (1992-2001) = 5,416 Deaths (1992-2001) = 5,592 Natural Increase = - 176 Net Migration = ?

Example: Italy, 1992-2001 Population at 1 January 1992 = 56,773 Population at 1 January 2002 = 56,994 Total increase = + 221 Births (1992-2001) = 5,416 Deaths (1992-2001) = 5,592 Natural Increase = - 176 Net Migration = 221 – (-176) = + 397

NET MIGRATION ESTIMATE B. Indirect estimate Weakness You can estimate only the balance (no information about gross flows) in the case of a sub-national area you can estimate the internal balance + international balance weakness of the measurement in developing countries

1. Indirect estimate : Foreign Born Population Case study Population balance equation bPt = bPt-1 - bDt + bIt - bEt then: bNM = bIt - bEt = bPt - bPt-1 + bDt “Reduced Equation” (… births are lacking!)

2. Indirect estimate: Foreign Citizen Population Population equation fPt = fPt-1 + fBt - fDt + fIt - fEt - fNt Then: fNM = fIt - fEt = fPt – fPt- - fBt + fDt + fNt

MIGRATION INTENSITY OF INFLOW AND OUTFLOW 1. Interested to both the migratory flows → in and out flow, gross flow and net flow 2. Standardisation by population consistency, age, sex … → gross rate, specific rate

Migratory flows → in and out flow, gross flow and net flow Considers as (Boyle, Halfacree, Robinson, 1998) IMi = Gross In-Migration, the volume of in-migration moving into a place i OMi = Gross Out-Migration, the volume of out-migration moving from a place i In this case Net Migration is defined as the algebraic sum of gross flows: NMi = IMi - OMi (as in the previous slides…)

Standardisation by population consistency, age, sex … → gross rate, specific rate To allow comparison among different places or the same place over time the measures are standardized by dividing the volumes by the average population of the place, so obtaining a RATE

RATES IMRi = IMi / Pi x 1,000 that is in-migration rate OMRi = OMi / Pi x 1,000 out-migration rate NMRi = (IMi - OMi) / Pi x 1,000 net-migration rate with Pi average population, that is the population on average counted during all the year (or during all the period)

Average population A good approximation of this average population can be obtained: a) using the population observed at the mid-term b) using a semi-sum of the population at the initial and the final period considered. Noting that in the case in which the observation of flows is made across a non-year period (for example, more than one year) the calculus must take into account this odd temporal reference.

The crude migration rate: an example Total Population (Italy, 2010) Foreign Population (Italy, 2010) 1 January 60340328 4235059 31 December 60626442 4570317 Average (1) 60483385 4402688 Immigration (2) 458856 424499 Emigration (3) 78771 32817 Net Migration (4) 380085 391682 Immigration Rate (2)/(1) 7,6 96,4 Emigration Rate (3)/(1) 1,3 7,5 Net Migration Rate (4)/(1) 6,3 89,0

Crude Net Migration Rate by Region - 2011 (per 1. 000 resident) Crude Net Migration Rate by Region - 2011 (per 1.000 resident). Centre-North Regions Region Internal External Other causes Total Piemonte 1,0 6,6 -1,4 6,2 Valle d'Aosta 1,7 5,3 -1,2 5,8 Lombardia 1,5 -1,5 Trentino-Alto Adige 2,3 5,4 -0,9 6,8 Bolzano-Bozen 1,9 4,8 -0,7 6,0 Trento 2,7 -1,1 7,6 Veneto 0,4 6,7 -1,9 5,2 Friuli-Venezia Giulia 1,3 5,0 Liguria 1,8 -1,8 Emilia-Romagna 2,0 7,7 Toscana 1,4 7,1 -1,7 Umbria 0,6 7,9 -1,3 7,2 Marche Lazio 1,6 7,3 -1,0

Crude Net Migration Rate by Region - 2011 (per 1. 000 resident) Crude Net Migration Rate by Region - 2011 (per 1.000 resident). South Regions Region Internal External Other Total cause _____________________________________________ Abruzzo 0,9 5,4 - 1,0 5,3 Molise 0,8 3,1 - 0,3 3,6 Campania - 3,7 2,5 - 0,3 - 1,5 Puglia - 2,1 1,9 - 0,4 - 0,6 Basilicata - 2,7 2,2 - 0,1 - 0,6 Calabria - 3,5 3,4 - 0,3 - 0,4 Sicilia - 1,7 2,3 - 0,6 0,0 Sardegna - 0,2 1,9 0,0 1,7 ITALIA 0.1* 5,3 - 1,1 4,3 Nord 1,3 6,6 - 1,6 6,3 Nord-ovest 1,4 6,5 - 1,5 6,4 Nord-est 1,3 6,8 - 1,8 6,3 Centro 1,3 7,2 - 1,3 7,2 Mezzogiorno - 2,2 2,5 - 0,4 - 0,1 Sud - 2,6 2,7 - 0,4 - 0,3 Isole - 1,4 2,2 - 0,4 0,4

Example Calculate a immigration pluri-annual rate (IMR), considering: nP1.1.2010=56,000,000 nP1.1.2008=55,000,000 IM2008-2009 = 900,000

Example: solution nP1.1.2010=56,000,000 nP1.1.2008=55,000,000 IM2008-2009 = 900,000 Average Population (2008-2009) = AP2008-2009 AP2008-2009 = (56,000,000+55,000,000)/2 * 2 = 111,000,000 Finally: IMR2008-2009 = 900,000 / 111,000,000 = 8,11 per thousands

Emigration and immigration rate: a paradox The meaning of the out and in-migration rate unfortunately is not the same. While OMR is clearly a measure of propensity to go out of a population, IMR has not the same interpretation, because the propensity to enter to a specific place i moving from j different places depends of the propensity of these j different places to generate flows towards i. Clearly OMR is a measure of propensity (in other words it is a proxy of a probability), IMR is a measure of impact.

SPECIFIC RATES IMRi,x = IMi,x / Pi,x per 1,000 that is in-migration age-specific rate OMRi,x = OMi,x / Pi,x per 1,000 out-migration age-specific rate NMRi,x = (IMi,x - OMi,x) / Pi,x per 1,000 net-migration age-specific rate with Pi,x average population at age x, that is the yearly population in age x on average

Specific Rate: an Example. Outflows (abs. value and rate) Specific Rate: an Example. Outflows (abs. value and rate). Male population, Italy 1991 age x Px,t Px,t+1 Average Outflows Outflow Specific Rate   Population OAx,t (Abr.) OIx,t (Interreg. OARx,t OIRx,t 292425 279983 286204 237 1072 1 286125 281773 283949 522 2839 2 287855 283370 285612,5 471 2643 3 280235 285289 282762 420 2406 4 281488 278884 280186 407 2034 5 291416 280661 286038,5 429 1779 6 295628 290391 293009,5 409 1855 7 303494 294793 299143,5 423 1542 8 312392 302720 307556 393 1490 9 319078 311715 315396,5 436 1465 10 324159 319253 321706 371 1303 11 336157 324123 330140 467 1689 12 358577 336069 347323 1254 13 372766 358533 365649,5 1219 14 393400 372696 383048 378 1323 15 416737 393242 404989,5 1340 16 437236 416509 426872,5 438 1442

Specific Rate: an Example. Outflows (abs. value and rate) Specific Rate: an Example. Outflows (abs. value and rate). Male population, Italy 1991 age x Px,t Px,t+1 Average Outflows Outflow Specific Rate   Population OAx,t (Abr.) OIx,t (Interreg. OEAx,t OEIx,t 292425 279983 286204 237 1072 0,8 3,7 1 286125 281773 283949 522 2839 1,8 10,0 2 287855 283370 285612,5 471 2643 1,6 9,3 3 280235 285289 282762 420 2406 1,5 8,5 4 281488 278884 280186 407 2034 7,3 5 291416 280661 286038,5 429 1779 6,2 6 295628 290391 293009,5 409 1855 1,4 6,3 7 303494 294793 299143,5 423 1542 5,2 8 312392 302720 307556 393 1490 1,3 4,8 9 319078 311715 315396,5 436 1465 4,6 10 324159 319253 321706 371 1303 1,2 4,1 11 336157 324123 330140 467 1689 5,1 12 358577 336069 347323 1254 1,1 3,6 13 372766 358533 365649,5 1219 3,3 14 393400 372696 383048 378 1323 1,0 3,5 15 416737 393242 404989,5 1340 0,9 16 437236 416509 426872,5 438 1442 3,4

Male outflows rate (interregional and external) by age. Italy, 2010.

Male outflows rate (interregional and external) by age. Italy, 2010. The age-model of OEF and OEI is quite the same

Total Mobility Rate: an example age x Px,t Px,t+1 Aver. Outflows Outflow Specific Rate   Pop. CFx,t CIx,t OEFx,t OEIx,t 292425 279983 286204 237 1072 0,8 3,7 1 286125 281773 283949 522 2839 1,8 10,0 2 287855 283370 285612,5 471 2643 1,6 9,3 3 280235 285289 282762 420 2406 1,5 8,5 4 281488 278884 280186 407 2034 7,3 … 79 124564 137066 130815 45 340 0,3 2,6 80 + 635116 671190 653153 275 1973 0,4 3,0 Total 27547371 27548440 27547906 37853 169400 1,4 6,1 TMT 103,5 446,1 TMT: Sum of age-specific mobility rates

Gross Migaproduction Rate: meaning Gross Migaproduction Rate = GMR GMR = 446,1 per 1000 resident that’s 0,446 per capita, in other words the number of the “moves” attributed to a person during his “fictitious” life

B. Distance and direction of flow origin and destination of the migration flows is specified Model and method → gravitational model, log-linear model