IMSWT2012 Conference Ship Fire-fighting System Cascading Failure Analysis Based on Complex Network Theory Speaker: Hongzhang Jin Affiliation: Harbin Engineering University Date: Aug.28th, 2012 BEA Confidential

Presentation Content 1 2 3 4 5 6 Why This Topic? The Present Research Situation on Cascading Failure 2 The Network of Ship Fire-fighting System 3 The Model of System Cascading failure 4 The Study of the Case and Show the results 5 Conclusion and some Discussion 6 BEA Confidential

1. Why This Topic？ Ship Fire is Always one of the most important Factor threatening Ship Safety, and there will be a large economic loss once ship fire occurring, thus, it is necessary to investigate the cause of occurrence and characteristic of it, then taking positive measures to prevent it But once Fire Occurring, What can Stop it spreading is the Ship Fire-fighting System which is already installed inside the cabin of the ship beforehand Script: Seamless Innovation is ultimately measured by the business results it enables. Clear examples of BEA’s forward thinking can be seen in many areas including: Edge Computing, Converged Communications and Real-time deterministic transaction oriented systems. Its about aiming our technology to solve real world business problems. For example real-time services in Financial Services community, next generation IP based converged communication in telecommunications or RFID based edge computing for supply chain management Notes: Edge Computing – Creating the leading J2EE infrastructure designed to take advantage of the real-time picture of a companies supply-chain through RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) Converged Communications _ The first SIP enabled internet communication platform which enables carriers and enterprise to converge traditional IT with telecommunication services to deliver next generation of advanced IP based services Real-Time Transactions – The first J2EE platform to deliver deterministic response time that can be measured in the milliseconds. Necessary for applications where response time must be guaranteed such as the worlds banking trading systems. BEA Confidential

1. Why This Topic？ Nowadays, many literatures concentrate on Ship Fire, and mainly about qualitative research on the cause and countermeasure of ship fire, and quantitative research on the fire brittleness source analysis of one cabin and assessment of cabin fire hazards. However, research materials on the Ship Fire-fighting System are relatively less, and the relations between cabins are not considered which could cause cascading failure of ship fire-fighting system. Our research considers this situation, and we not only deepened the cascading failure research on the theoretical level compared to our previous achievement, but also made it utile to some extent. Script: Seamless Innovation is ultimately measured by the business results it enables. Clear examples of BEA’s forward thinking can be seen in many areas including: Edge Computing, Converged Communications and Real-time deterministic transaction oriented systems. Its about aiming our technology to solve real world business problems. For example real-time services in Financial Services community, next generation IP based converged communication in telecommunications or RFID based edge computing for supply chain management Notes: Edge Computing – Creating the leading J2EE infrastructure designed to take advantage of the real-time picture of a companies supply-chain through RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) Converged Communications _ The first SIP enabled internet communication platform which enables carriers and enterprise to converge traditional IT with telecommunication services to deliver next generation of advanced IP based services Real-Time Transactions – The first J2EE platform to deliver deterministic response time that can be measured in the milliseconds. Necessary for applications where response time must be guaranteed such as the worlds banking trading systems. BEA Confidential

2. The Present Research Situation on Cascading Failure 1）Complex Network Modeling ● Small-World Network Model ● Scale-Free Network Model (Watts and Strogatz:1998) (Barabasi and Albert:1999) 2）Cascading Failure Modeling ● Load-Capacity Model : node based, edge based, mixed (the one used in our paper) ● Binary influence Model ● Sandpile Model, etc… Application examples: ● Power Grid Model: Dobson OPA (Optimal Power Analysis) ● Congestion Model：Internet network, City Transportation network, etc… BEA Confidential

3. The Network of Ship Fire-fighting System 1) The modeling Idea Node: the ship fire-fighting system inside a cabin, which is the cabin is as a unit modeling as a node Edge: various connections relating to each pair of cabins, including fire spreading, energy transferring passages, and etc… Script: Seamless Innovation is ultimately measured by the business results it enables. Clear examples of BEA’s forward thinking can be seen in many areas including: Edge Computing, Converged Communications and Real-time deterministic transaction oriented systems. Its about aiming our technology to solve real world business problems. For example real-time services in Financial Services community, next generation IP based converged communication in telecommunications or RFID based edge computing for supply chain management Notes: Edge Computing – Creating the leading J2EE infrastructure designed to take advantage of the real-time picture of a companies supply-chain through RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) Converged Communications _ The first SIP enabled internet communication platform which enables carriers and enterprise to converge traditional IT with telecommunication services to deliver next generation of advanced IP based services Real-Time Transactions – The first J2EE platform to deliver deterministic response time that can be measured in the milliseconds. Necessary for applications where response time must be guaranteed such as the worlds banking trading systems. BEA Confidential

3. The Network of Ship Fire-fighting System 2) The Model Script: Seamless Innovation is ultimately measured by the business results it enables. Clear examples of BEA’s forward thinking can be seen in many areas including: Edge Computing, Converged Communications and Real-time deterministic transaction oriented systems. Its about aiming our technology to solve real world business problems. For example real-time services in Financial Services community, next generation IP based converged communication in telecommunications or RFID based edge computing for supply chain management Notes: Edge Computing – Creating the leading J2EE infrastructure designed to take advantage of the real-time picture of a companies supply-chain through RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) Converged Communications _ The first SIP enabled internet communication platform which enables carriers and enterprise to converge traditional IT with telecommunication services to deliver next generation of advanced IP based services Real-Time Transactions – The first J2EE platform to deliver deterministic response time that can be measured in the milliseconds. Necessary for applications where response time must be guaranteed such as the worlds banking trading systems. Figure 1. Topological Structure Network of Kiev Fire-fighting System BEA Confidential

4. The Model of System Cascading failure 1) The Description of network Cascading Failure Process Script: Seamless Innovation is ultimately measured by the business results it enables. Clear examples of BEA’s forward thinking can be seen in many areas including: Edge Computing, Converged Communications and Real-time deterministic transaction oriented systems. Its about aiming our technology to solve real world business problems. For example real-time services in Financial Services community, next generation IP based converged communication in telecommunications or RFID based edge computing for supply chain management Notes: Edge Computing – Creating the leading J2EE infrastructure designed to take advantage of the real-time picture of a companies supply-chain through RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) Converged Communications _ The first SIP enabled internet communication platform which enables carriers and enterprise to converge traditional IT with telecommunication services to deliver next generation of advanced IP based services Real-Time Transactions – The first J2EE platform to deliver deterministic response time that can be measured in the milliseconds. Necessary for applications where response time must be guaranteed such as the worlds banking trading systems. Figure 2. the Failure Propagation in the Complex Network BEA Confidential

4. The Model of System Cascading failure 2) The Introduction of Cascading Failure Model The Description of the Graph: We describe the graph G by the adjacency matrix {eij}, The element eij of this matrix is 0 if there is no edge between node i and node j; otherwise it is a number in the range (0, 1] that represents the efficiency of the edge. Initially, for all existing edges, eij(t0) is set equal to 1, meaning that all the edges are working perfectly. Script: Seamless Innovation is ultimately measured by the business results it enables. Clear examples of BEA’s forward thinking can be seen in many areas including: Edge Computing, Converged Communications and Real-time deterministic transaction oriented systems. Its about aiming our technology to solve real world business problems. For example real-time services in Financial Services community, next generation IP based converged communication in telecommunications or RFID based edge computing for supply chain management Notes: Edge Computing – Creating the leading J2EE infrastructure designed to take advantage of the real-time picture of a companies supply-chain through RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) Converged Communications _ The first SIP enabled internet communication platform which enables carriers and enterprise to converge traditional IT with telecommunication services to deliver next generation of advanced IP based services Real-Time Transactions – The first J2EE platform to deliver deterministic response time that can be measured in the milliseconds. Necessary for applications where response time must be guaranteed such as the worlds banking trading systems. BEA Confidential

4. The Model of System Cascading failure 2) The Introduction of Cascading Failure Model εij: the Most Efficient Path between i and j Subsequently, we define the efficiency of a path (succession of consecutive edges) between two nodes as the harmonic composition of the efficiencies of the component edges. The harmonic composition [1] of N numbers x1, x2… xN is defined as , and by εij we indicate the efficiency of the most efficient path between i and j. Script: Seamless Innovation is ultimately measured by the business results it enables. Clear examples of BEA’s forward thinking can be seen in many areas including: Edge Computing, Converged Communications and Real-time deterministic transaction oriented systems. Its about aiming our technology to solve real world business problems. For example real-time services in Financial Services community, next generation IP based converged communication in telecommunications or RFID based edge computing for supply chain management Notes: Edge Computing – Creating the leading J2EE infrastructure designed to take advantage of the real-time picture of a companies supply-chain through RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) Converged Communications _ The first SIP enabled internet communication platform which enables carriers and enterprise to converge traditional IT with telecommunication services to deliver next generation of advanced IP based services Real-Time Transactions – The first J2EE platform to deliver deterministic response time that can be measured in the milliseconds. Necessary for applications where response time must be guaranteed such as the worlds banking trading systems. BEA Confidential

4. The Model of System Cascading failure 2) The Introduction of Cascading Failure Model The starting failure of a node i With such a definition of efficiency, the starting failure of a node i at initial time t0 can be simulated by the decrease of its efficiency. ● e’ij(t0 ) = β eij (t0 ) (1) where 0<β<1 is a constant, and if β is larger, the starting failure of node i is more serious. Script: Seamless Innovation is ultimately measured by the business results it enables. Clear examples of BEA’s forward thinking can be seen in many areas including: Edge Computing, Converged Communications and Real-time deterministic transaction oriented systems. Its about aiming our technology to solve real world business problems. For example real-time services in Financial Services community, next generation IP based converged communication in telecommunications or RFID based edge computing for supply chain management Notes: Edge Computing – Creating the leading J2EE infrastructure designed to take advantage of the real-time picture of a companies supply-chain through RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) Converged Communications _ The first SIP enabled internet communication platform which enables carriers and enterprise to converge traditional IT with telecommunication services to deliver next generation of advanced IP based services Real-Time Transactions – The first J2EE platform to deliver deterministic response time that can be measured in the milliseconds. Necessary for applications where response time must be guaranteed such as the worlds banking trading systems. BEA Confidential

4. The Model of System Cascading failure 2) The Introduction of Cascading Failure Model Initial Load Li(t0), Load Li(t0), Capacity Ci The load Li(t) on node i at time t is the total number of paths passing through the node i. The capacity Ci of a node i is the maximum load that the node can handle. In man-made networks, the capacity is severely limited by cost. Thus, it is natural to assume that the capacity Ci of node i is proportional to its initial load Li(t0). ● Ci = (1 + α ) Li (t0 ) i=1,2,…N, (2) where the constant α>0 is the tolerance parameter and N is the total number of nodes. Script: Seamless Innovation is ultimately measured by the business results it enables. Clear examples of BEA’s forward thinking can be seen in many areas including: Edge Computing, Converged Communications and Real-time deterministic transaction oriented systems. Its about aiming our technology to solve real world business problems. For example real-time services in Financial Services community, next generation IP based converged communication in telecommunications or RFID based edge computing for supply chain management Notes: Edge Computing – Creating the leading J2EE infrastructure designed to take advantage of the real-time picture of a companies supply-chain through RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) Converged Communications _ The first SIP enabled internet communication platform which enables carriers and enterprise to converge traditional IT with telecommunication services to deliver next generation of advanced IP based services Real-Time Transactions – The first J2EE platform to deliver deterministic response time that can be measured in the milliseconds. Necessary for applications where response time must be guaranteed such as the worlds banking trading systems. BEA Confidential

4. The Model of System Cascading failure 2) The Introduction of Cascading Failure Model Dynamical Efficiency Model: the failure of a node i reduce the efficiency of all the edges passing through it at time t. Such degradation can modify the most efficient paths, redistribute the load on the network, and consequently cause new nodes to fails. At each time t, the degradation of performance is represented by the following dynamical model: ● (3) where j extends to all the first neighbors of i. Script: Seamless Innovation is ultimately measured by the business results it enables. Clear examples of BEA’s forward thinking can be seen in many areas including: Edge Computing, Converged Communications and Real-time deterministic transaction oriented systems. Its about aiming our technology to solve real world business problems. For example real-time services in Financial Services community, next generation IP based converged communication in telecommunications or RFID based edge computing for supply chain management Notes: Edge Computing – Creating the leading J2EE infrastructure designed to take advantage of the real-time picture of a companies supply-chain through RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) Converged Communications _ The first SIP enabled internet communication platform which enables carriers and enterprise to converge traditional IT with telecommunication services to deliver next generation of advanced IP based services Real-Time Transactions – The first J2EE platform to deliver deterministic response time that can be measured in the milliseconds. Necessary for applications where response time must be guaranteed such as the worlds banking trading systems. BEA Confidential

4. The Model of System Cascading failure 2) The Introduction of Cascading Failure Model Average Efficiency E: During the process of cascading failure, we use the concept of average efficiency E of the network as a measure of the performance of a system at a given time. ● (4) where εij is the efficiency of the most efficient path between node i and node j. Script: Seamless Innovation is ultimately measured by the business results it enables. Clear examples of BEA’s forward thinking can be seen in many areas including: Edge Computing, Converged Communications and Real-time deterministic transaction oriented systems. Its about aiming our technology to solve real world business problems. For example real-time services in Financial Services community, next generation IP based converged communication in telecommunications or RFID based edge computing for supply chain management Notes: Edge Computing – Creating the leading J2EE infrastructure designed to take advantage of the real-time picture of a companies supply-chain through RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) Converged Communications _ The first SIP enabled internet communication platform which enables carriers and enterprise to converge traditional IT with telecommunication services to deliver next generation of advanced IP based services Real-Time Transactions – The first J2EE platform to deliver deterministic response time that can be measured in the milliseconds. Necessary for applications where response time must be guaranteed such as the worlds banking trading systems. BEA Confidential

4. The Model of System Cascading failure 2) The Introduction of Cascading Failure Model Average Efficiency E: ● (4) Obviously, the E would be reduced if a failure of a node causes the cascade failure. Therefore, we can identify the crucial node by the degradation of efficiency E. If the failure of a node brings about a large degradation of E, the corresponding node will be an important node of system. Script: Seamless Innovation is ultimately measured by the business results it enables. Clear examples of BEA’s forward thinking can be seen in many areas including: Edge Computing, Converged Communications and Real-time deterministic transaction oriented systems. Its about aiming our technology to solve real world business problems. For example real-time services in Financial Services community, next generation IP based converged communication in telecommunications or RFID based edge computing for supply chain management Notes: Edge Computing – Creating the leading J2EE infrastructure designed to take advantage of the real-time picture of a companies supply-chain through RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) Converged Communications _ The first SIP enabled internet communication platform which enables carriers and enterprise to converge traditional IT with telecommunication services to deliver next generation of advanced IP based services Real-Time Transactions – The first J2EE platform to deliver deterministic response time that can be measured in the milliseconds. Necessary for applications where response time must be guaranteed such as the worlds banking trading systems. BEA Confidential

5. The Study of the Case（Kiev aircraft）and Show the results 1) The figure of the Initial Load Script: Seamless Innovation is ultimately measured by the business results it enables. Clear examples of BEA’s forward thinking can be seen in many areas including: Edge Computing, Converged Communications and Real-time deterministic transaction oriented systems. Its about aiming our technology to solve real world business problems. For example real-time services in Financial Services community, next generation IP based converged communication in telecommunications or RFID based edge computing for supply chain management Notes: Edge Computing – Creating the leading J2EE infrastructure designed to take advantage of the real-time picture of a companies supply-chain through RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) Converged Communications _ The first SIP enabled internet communication platform which enables carriers and enterprise to converge traditional IT with telecommunication services to deliver next generation of advanced IP based services Real-Time Transactions – The first J2EE platform to deliver deterministic response time that can be measured in the milliseconds. Necessary for applications where response time must be guaranteed such as the worlds banking trading systems. Figure 3. Initial Load Distribution of Nodes BEA Confidential

5. The Study of the Case（Kiev aircraft）and Show the results 2) The figure of the Efficiency of the network Script: Seamless Innovation is ultimately measured by the business results it enables. Clear examples of BEA’s forward thinking can be seen in many areas including: Edge Computing, Converged Communications and Real-time deterministic transaction oriented systems. Its about aiming our technology to solve real world business problems. For example real-time services in Financial Services community, next generation IP based converged communication in telecommunications or RFID based edge computing for supply chain management Notes: Edge Computing – Creating the leading J2EE infrastructure designed to take advantage of the real-time picture of a companies supply-chain through RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) Converged Communications _ The first SIP enabled internet communication platform which enables carriers and enterprise to converge traditional IT with telecommunication services to deliver next generation of advanced IP based services Real-Time Transactions – The first J2EE platform to deliver deterministic response time that can be measured in the milliseconds. Necessary for applications where response time must be guaranteed such as the worlds banking trading systems. Figure 4. Efficiency of the Kiev Fire-fighting System Network after failure BEA Confidential

6. Conclusion and some Discussion There would be a great danger once the cabin not only lied in the crucial position but also contained large fire load. However, our model is extensible, which the functional relations among cabins can be also added in, such as the function of the engine room, the power stations, and the magazines, etc…. Finally, various kinds of relations can be added in the model proposed in this paper considering different situations. Script: Seamless Innovation is ultimately measured by the business results it enables. Clear examples of BEA’s forward thinking can be seen in many areas including: Edge Computing, Converged Communications and Real-time deterministic transaction oriented systems. Its about aiming our technology to solve real world business problems. For example real-time services in Financial Services community, next generation IP based converged communication in telecommunications or RFID based edge computing for supply chain management Notes: Edge Computing – Creating the leading J2EE infrastructure designed to take advantage of the real-time picture of a companies supply-chain through RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) Converged Communications _ The first SIP enabled internet communication platform which enables carriers and enterprise to converge traditional IT with telecommunication services to deliver next generation of advanced IP based services Real-Time Transactions – The first J2EE platform to deliver deterministic response time that can be measured in the milliseconds. Necessary for applications where response time must be guaranteed such as the worlds banking trading systems. BEA Confidential

Reference: [1] V. Latora, M. Marchiori. Efficient Behavior of Small-World Networks. Physical Review Letters, vol. 87, no.19, 2001, pp.198701/1-198701/4. Script: Seamless Innovation is ultimately measured by the business results it enables. Clear examples of BEA’s forward thinking can be seen in many areas including: Edge Computing, Converged Communications and Real-time deterministic transaction oriented systems. Its about aiming our technology to solve real world business problems. For example real-time services in Financial Services community, next generation IP based converged communication in telecommunications or RFID based edge computing for supply chain management Notes: Edge Computing – Creating the leading J2EE infrastructure designed to take advantage of the real-time picture of a companies supply-chain through RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) Converged Communications _ The first SIP enabled internet communication platform which enables carriers and enterprise to converge traditional IT with telecommunication services to deliver next generation of advanced IP based services Real-Time Transactions – The first J2EE platform to deliver deterministic response time that can be measured in the milliseconds. Necessary for applications where response time must be guaranteed such as the worlds banking trading systems. BEA Confidential

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