Cianchini, F. J. Pavon-Carrasco, C. Cesaroni, L. Spogli ESA funded Project under the STSE Swarm + Innovation Programme INGV S A F E Swarm for earthquake study A. De Santis, G. De Franceschi, R. Di Giovambattista, L. Perrone, L. Alfonsi, G. Cianchini, F. J. Pavon-Carrasco, C. Cesaroni, L. Spogli Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia SIF Conference, Rome, 24 Sept. 2015 SAFE TEAM INGV: Angelo De Santis, Giorgiana De Franceschi, Rita Di Giovambattista, Loredana Perrone, Lucilla Alfonsi, Gianfranco Cianchini, F. Javier Pavón-Carrasco, Claudio Cesaroni, Luca Spogli & Andrea Malagnini PLANETEK: Leonardo Amoruso, Marianna Carbone, Cristoforo Abbattista & Daniela Drimaco

Outline 0. Generalities on SAFE Project 1. Project Organization INGV 0. Generalities on SAFE Project 1. Project Organization 2. EQs & Swarm satellites 3. The vision 4. The General approach 5. Case studies 6. CONCLUSIONS De Santis A. et al., SAFE, SIF Conference, Rome, 24 September 2015

0. Generalities on SAFE 0. Generlaities on SAFE INGV - SAFE proposes the use of Swarm satellite data as recent frontier of Earthquake (EQ) studies. - It aims at searching pre-EQ signals due to the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling (LAIC) - Systematic, multiparameter & multi-platform approach to study the possible effects (at satellite altitude and ground) of the slow preparation process in the lithosphere that leads to the EQ. - Understanding the physics behind the LAIC 0. Generlaities on SAFE De Santis A. et al., SAFE, SIF Conference, Rome, 24 September 2015

1. Project Organization INGV 1. Project Organization

2a. Why Earthquake study? 2. Earthquakes & Swarm INGV i. For Science: Lithosphere is complex. Understanding the Earthquake (EQ) process is a fundamental step to know lithosphere and its interaction with the rest of the planet 2. Earthquakes & Swarm ii. For the Society: EQs effects have produced 3.6 Million deaths in the last century Understanding the EQ Process (and its eventual forecast) is one of the greatest challenges of science for which we need both ground and space observations

2b. Why Swarm satellite mission INGV “Thus, em radiation significantly above the background noise prior to at least some EQs may be observable from space in carefully designed experiments.” (Cicerone et al., 2009) 2. Earthquakes & Swarm i. ESA satellite mission. Launch 23 Nov. 2013 ii. Three twin satellites in quasi-polar orbits, appropriate combination of (em, particles & gps) sensors iii. Satellite orbiting configuration: 2 satellites (460km) +1 satellite (510km) http://www.esa.int The specific 3-satellite Swarm configuration is expected to favour discrimination between EQ-related and non-EQ-related anomalies

2c. Swarm satellites: the sensors 2. Earthquakes & Swarm INGV 2c. Swarm satellites: the sensors The sensors represent the cutting edge technology in their field 2. Earthquakes & Swarm Front Back © ESA 1 ASM optically-pumped metastable helium-4 magnetometer; 2 VFM Ring core fluxgate magnetometer

Geosystemics1: an integrated holistic vision 3. The vision INGV Geosystemics1: an integrated holistic vision Patterns in the EQ preparation phase**: 3. Ionospheric anomalies (short term) (from satellites or ionosondes or GPS networks) - ionospheric density - em field - TEC 2. Atmospheric anomalies - Thermal anomalies - Clouds anomalies 1. Seismic fore-patterns (from seismic and magnetic data) - Acceleration (interm. term) - non linear pdf (short term) 3. The vision Geosystemics Research Group, INGV **The goal is not EQ Prediction, nowadays impossible, but to understand the process of earthquake preparation and geospheres coupling based on the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC). 1 De Santis 2009, 2014; De Santis & Qamili, 2015; De Santis et al., 2015

4. The General Approach INGV 4. The General Approach

5.1 Study from space: ionospheric (statistical) analyses from DEMETER satellite INGV EQ EQ data Ionospheric Electronic Density 5. Case studies DEMETER satellite (2004-2010) ~ 9000 earthquakes M≥5 and h< 40 km 300 1000 2000 Distance from epicentre (km) days before earthquake 3-12 days in advance Random data 300 1000 2000 After Parrot M., Erice 2012 days before earthquake

* 5. Case studies INGV 11 days before the EQ M 8.8 CHILI EQ 27 Febr. 2010 06:34:14 UT 35.85°S 72.72°W h = 35 km 5. Case studies -17 -11 -9 * Green=Foreshocks Red=Mainshock & Aftershocks M. Parrot, Erice -2012

5.2 Study from ground: Two examples INGV INGV Geosystemics - Seismic Anomalies identified by the modified Cumulative Benioff strain (De Santis et al., 2015) 7-year acceleration EQ at the critical point (power-law with infinite time derivative) Wavelet Spectrum - Ionospheric EQ-related anomalies detected by ionosondes when they satisfy 3 simultaneous conditions on Es & F2 layers. (Perrone et al., AG, 2010) In Italy, period 1980-2009) 36% true alarms 64% false alarms De Santis A. et al., SAFE, SIF Conference, Rome, 24 September 2015

6. Conclusions Messages to take home Earthquake Physics is complex INGV INV Messages to take home Earthquake Physics is complex A multi-attack & multi-community strategy (multi-parameter and interdisciplinary approach) to the problem is fundamental  Geosystemics LAI Coupling exists and it is possible to be detected by space (but with caution and together with ground data observations!) 4. However, we need to better understand the physics and identify the best model of LAIC 6. Conclusions 5. Satellite data analysis (e.g. SAFE ESA-funded Project) will provide important insight De Santis A. et al., SAFE, SIF Conference, Rome, 24 September 2015

Thanks for your attention ! INGV Geosystemics Thanks for your attention ! De Santis A. et al., SAFE, SIF Conference, Rome, 24 September 2015