How to predict the population

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Presentation transcript:

How to predict the population Once you know the density of the pond, you can take that information and predict the next year's population! Let's take the first year for example. 4 fish = .4 density

Year one was .4, and let's say year 2 is .7 P2-P1 = .7- .4 = .3 .3 was the change

Now we take the change (.3) and divide it by the original density (.4) This makes .12 the rate of change. Aka: The population increased by 12% percent.

Next we need a fixed number so that we can create a formula. For the sake of visualizing it, we will say that the fixed number is .6

The formula: P2 = Density + Fixed number x Density (1 – Density) Simplify it all down to one number then multiply by the maximum sustainable population

P2 = .7 + .6 x .7 (1-.7) P2 = .7 + .6 x .7 x .3 P2 = .7 + .126 = .826 .826 x 10 = 8.26 = 8 fish Next year there will be 8 fish! The next change can be expected to increase very little

What will next years population be? There are 18 fish with a maximum sustainable population of 30. The fixed number is .3

18/30 = .6 Density

P2 = .6 + .3 x .6 (1-.6) P2 = .6 + .3 x .6 x .4 P2 = .6 + .072 .672 x 30 = 20.16 = 20 fish .66 Density - .6 Density = 6 % increase

What would the next years population be if the current population was 65 fish with a maximum sustainable population of 40? The fixed number is .5 Figure it out and post on the Wiki page.

P4 = .3 + .6 x .3 (1 - .3) P4 = .3 + .6 x .3 x .7 P4 = .3 + .126