The Religious Will Inherit the Earth? Demography, Religion and Politics

'5 Minutes of Fame……'

Demography in History Periodic population changes through technology, disease and invasion Demography as Effect: Technological advantage translates into expansion for some groups at others' expense through lower mortality (Europe) or military conquest (Europeans v. the rest; Bantu v. Khoi San) Demography as Cause: Role of demographic pressure in causing revolution (Goldstone) or innovation (Durkheim) Oft-cited role of demography in hastening decline of empires?

Religious Demography and Politics? Early Christianity, spread from some 40 converts in 30 A.D. to over 6 million adherents by 300 A.D. (Stark) Mormon church: same 40 percent growth in past century, widening fertility gap Evangelical Protestant growth in the 20th c. US: ¾ demographic. 'Red states' have 12-point TFR advantage over 'Blue' in 2004 election

The Demographic Transition From High Fertility/High Mortality to Low Fertility/Low Mortality UK: Had slower fertility transition than France, had excess population growth for settlement which France did not. Geopolitical implications Second Demographic Transition: permanently below-replacement fertility for 30 years in Europe and E Asia. Little movement beyond 1.5. Population decline Who will replace? Values rather than economic status is most strongly linked to fertility With mortality declining and state boundaries stable, could values & fertility rather than technology now hold the key to group advantage?

Global Implications Below-Replacement Fertility spreading now to China, parts of India (Kerala), Brazil, Iran, Tunisia Developing World will have below-replacement fertility by 2085, according to UN Some alarmist tracts (Wattenberg, Fewer)

The Rise of Demography Demographic Transition Uneven Democracy, Equality, Liberty enhance demographic impact on politics Ethnic differentials have political ramifications Ethnic Makeover Accepted. What about religious makeover?

Through a Glass, Darkly Who will populate the earth after 2100? Charles Galton Darwin – The Next Million Years (1952) Longman's recent book (2004)

Demography and Modernisation Modernisation: urbanisation, education, wealth, secularisation Yet rural, uneducated, poor, religious have higher fertility Was not true before late 19th c. Something has changed Modernity must now move forward to stand still No one wants to be poor and uneducated, but religion has a much stronger hold Modernity can take a 'European/East Asian' or American route

But We Must Also Consider Apostasy "1. The publics of virtually all advanced industrial societies have been moving toward more secular orientations during the past fifty years. Nevertheless, 2. The world as a whole now has more people with traditional religious views than ever before-- and they constitute a growing proportion of the world's population." (Inglehart & Norris 2004) Which will dominate: religious fertility or secularisation?

Fertility by Religion among White Americans Conservative Protestants have an average of 2.1 births per woman (replacement). Mormons 3.0. On the other hand, white Catholics average 1.7; Liberal Protestants average 1.4; Jews 1.1 and Secular Americans 1.0 Given the growth of the conservative denominations, we might expect the US to become increasingly religious

Religious Switching No Longer Favours Liberal Denominations

Decline of Liberal Protestants

Growth of Secularism in America? But the secular population benefits from apostasy from the major religions For the 1950-59 cohort, 12% of those born Mainline and 7% of those born Conservative Protestants became nonreligious Between 8-13% of the US population is now nonreligious

Secularism's Limits But growth in secular population has slowed It is unclear whether secular apostates will outweigh effects of: Secular people becoming religious, and: Secular people having far fewer children

Political Fallout: the 2004 US Election In terms of fertility rates the red states had a 12-point advantage over the blue states in 2004…among white Americans fertility differences reflect a gulf between the religious and the secular. In largely Mormon Utah, there are 90 children for every 1,000 women of child-bearing age, compared to only 49 in the socially liberal Vermont of Howard Dean…Bush won a majority in 2000 in states with above-replacement levels of 2.11 children per woman, while the Gore-Kerry states looked like Europe, with a below-replacement fertility rate. Retro America is outbreeding metro America – journalist Michael Lind, January 2005

Orthodox Fertility in Israel Among Ultra-Orthodox Jews, fertility rates rise from 6.49 during 1980-82 to 7.61 during 1990-96 Among other Israeli Jews, fertility declines from 2.61 to 2.27 children per woman Orthodox Jews will increase from 5.2% of Israel's Jewish population today to 12.4% in 2025. Among those under the age of 17, 22.5% of Jews will be ultra-Orthodox in 2025 on current trends

"It is difficult to overstate the pace at which Israeli society is changing. In 1960, 15 percent of primary-school pupils studied in either the ultra-Orthodox or the Arab-sector school systems (these are today's adults). In 1980, this rate reached 27 percent, and last year it was 46 percent." - D. Ben-David Political Fallout: Growth of Ultra-Orthodox religious bloc, holding balance of power in the Knesset. Religious view of issues like Settlements, Land-for-Peace

Surely Not Europe? Christian Fundamentalism is on the rise, but still very small (max. 1-2%) Church Attendance low (moving to 5-10%) But Belief is much stronger (40-50% 'religious', 50-65% 'believe in God') 'Believing without belonging' matters for voting and for fertility

The Role of Immigration Immigrants to Europe have higher religiosity and higher fertility Fertility behaviour trends toward host mean over the generations Religiosity seems to decline much more slowly – esp. for Muslims Immigration from Islamic sources will provide an increasing component of W. Europe's Population

'No Religion' will age due to decline in apostasy and low fertility Muslims will grow through immigration, fertility and religious retention Christians will stabilize due to higher fertility, female religiosity and declining apostasy

Growth of European Islam Not 'Eurabia' as scaremongers suggest, but: Austria: assuming only 20k immigrants per year, projected to form 14-26 pc of population by 2051 (Goujon, Skirbekk et al. 2006) W. Europe will be 10-20 pc Muslim in 2050, up from 3 pc today Age structure and urban concentration Note that religious revival in Europe is both a Muslim and Christian phenomenon Political implications – depends on nature of conservative political strategies

Conclusion: Secularisation In Europe, more religious (Catholic) countries are secularising faster; less religious (mainly Protestant) countries may have ceased to secularise Religious fertility and slowing of apostasy will lead to end of secularizing trend c. 2045-55 in Protestant western Europe even without immigration Immigration, especially of Muslims, will greatly hasten and enhance the onset of de-secularization

Political Implications An issue for the medium to longer term Religious are much more right-leaning Right-leaning voters vote for more conservative parties Religious conservatism (USA) vs Nationalist conservatism (Europe?) Depends on whether conservative parties appeal to religious-moral or ethnic-national issues

2003 study showed that those sending children to Madrassas had significantly higher fertility (India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Ivory Coast)

Link Between Fertility and Islamism? Source: 2000 World Values Survey

IIASA, near Vienna

Project Website http://www.sneps.net/RD/religdem.html