2007 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 6 MONTHS TO 31 MARCH 2007

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Presentation transcript:

2007 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 6 MONTHS TO 31 MARCH 2007 LION NATHAN LIMITED 2007 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 6 MONTHS TO 31 MARCH 2007 Jamie Tomlinson Chief Financial Officer 17 May 2007

GROUP PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX  Group Results  Key Ratios  Project Invest  Summary

GROUP RESULTS OVERVIEW Pre Significant and One-Time Items GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX Reference page March 2007 vs YAGO Net Sales (page 29) A$m 1,039.5 5.3% Australia EBIT (page 25) 231.4 4.7% New Zealand EBIT (page 26) NZ$m 52.6 0.0% Wine EBIT (pre SGARA) (page 27) 6.7 26.4% Group EBIT (page 8) 269.2 4.2% Group NPAT (page 9) 156.8 3.6% Operating Cash Flow (page 15) 161.9 0.4% Cash Realisation Ratio % 79.5 (4.0pp) EPS* cents 29.4 Dividend per share 19.0 Business on track for full year guidance * Calculated using total number of shares on issue (i.e. includes shares held by the Lion Nathan Achievement Rights Trust)

GROUP RESULTS OVERVIEW Reconciliation of Reported & Operating Results GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX Reference page March 2007 EBIT March 2006 % Change Reported result ($m) 264.1 255.5 3.4 Project Invest costs (page 17) 5.1 3.0 Provision releases (e.g. Two Dogs) - (2.4) Coopers costs 2.2 Operating result ($m) 269.2 258.3 4.2 EBIT of $269.2m pre significant and one-time items, +4.2%

GROUP RESULTS OVERVIEW Reconciliation of Reported & Operating Results GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX Reference page March 2007 NPAT March 2006 % Change Reported result ($m) 162.0 148.9 8.8 LNFA tax audit (page 6) (9.5) - Reported result pre significant items ($m) 152.5 2.4 Project Invest costs (page 17) 4.3 2.1 Provision releases (e.g. Two Dogs) (1.9) Coopers costs 2.2 Operating result ($m) 156.8 151.3 3.6 NPAT of $156.8m pre significant and one-time items, +3.6%

GROUP RESULTS OVERVIEW Significant Items – LNFA Tax Audit GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX In January 2007 the ATO concluded an audit of Lion Nathan Finance (Australia) Pty Ltd (a wholly owned subsidiary of Lion Nathan Limited) in relation to the deductibility of bad debts incurred funding Australian subsidiaries of Lion Nathan Limited. Amended assessments were issued in January 2007 in respect of bad debt deductions claimed in the 2000 and 2002 financial years. The primary tax and general interest charge assessed was fully provided for in prior financial years. A provision surplus of $9.5m has been released in the 2007 financial year. $m Interest expense on bad debt deductions disallowed (11.3) Release of excess provision recognised in prior financial years (included in income tax expense) 20.8 9.5 $9.5m benefit recognised as a significant item in H1 F07 result

MARCH 2007 GROUP RESULTS OVERVIEW Adjusted for Significant & One-Time Items GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX March 2007 Reported Significant Items March 2007 Pre Sig Items One-Time Items March 2007 Operating Net sales (A$m) 1,039.5 - 1,039.5 - 1,039.5 EBIT 264.1 - 264.1 5.1 269.2 Interest (55.8) 11.3 (44.5) - (44.5) Earnings pre tax 208.3 11.3 219.6 5.1 224.7 Tax (46.2) (20.8) (67.0) (0.8) (67.8) Minority Interest (0.1) - (0.1) - (0.1) NPAT 162.0 (9.5) 152.5 4.3 156.8 Reference page (page 6) (page 17) Significant item (ATO settlement) and OTI (Project Invest) impacting reported result 7

GROUP RESULTS OVERVIEW Pre Significant & One-Time Items GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX A$m March 2007 Operating March 2006 % Change Australia (page 25) 231.4 221.0 4.7 New Zealand (NZ$) (page 26) 52.6 0.0 New Zealand (A$) 46.3 48.4 (4.3) Wine pre SGARA (page 27) 6.7 5.3 26.4 SGARA (0.2) (0.7) 71.4 Corporate (page 28) (15.0) (15.7) 4.5 EBIT 269.2 258.3 4.2 AUD/NZD translation rate 1.137 1.088 (4.5) Reference page Australian beer underpins overall result. NZ impacted by 4.5% depreciation in the NZD vs AUD

GROUP RESULTS OVERVIEW Pre Significant & One-Time Items GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX Reference page March 2007 Operating March 2006 Operating % Change Net Sales (A$m) (page 29) 1,039.5 987.2 5.3 EBIT 269.2 258.3 4.2 Interest (44.5) (39.5) (12.7) Earnings pre tax 224.7 218.8 2.7 Tax (67.8) (67.3) (0.7) Minority Interest (0.1) (0.2) 50.0 NPAT 156.8 151.3 3.6 NPAT +3.6% pre significant and one-time items

GROUP RESULTS OVERVIEW Operating cash flow - reconciliation to NPAT GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX NPAT Depn & Timing Increase in Share Other Operating Impact of Mar 07 Mar 07 Amortisation of Tax Working Based Cash Flow LNFA Tax Operating Payments Capital Payments pre LNFA Settlement Cash Flow Tax Settlement Operating cash flow influenced by settlement of LNFA tax audit

GROUP RESULTS OVERVIEW Working Capital GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX Increased Mar 07 v Sept 06 sales Working capital growth driven by seasonal increase in debtors, but in line with March 2006

GROUP RESULTS OVERVIEW Expenses – Appendix 4D GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX A$m March 2007 March 2006 $m Change % Change Cost of sales 504.4 469.6 34.8 7.4% Sales and marketing costs 167.1 156.0 11.1 7.1% Distribution costs 41.5 42.2 (0.7) (1.7%) Finance and admin costs 45.0 46.7 (1.7) (3.6%) Other expenses 45.1 (0.1) (0.2%) Total expenses 803.0 759.6 43.4 5.7% 4% volume, 4% rate, 1% mix offset by 1% FX Increased marketing investment 12

GROUP PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX  Group Results  Key Ratios  Project Invest  Summary

KEY RATIOS* March 2007 2006 B (W) EPS** Cents 28.5 27.9 2.4% GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX March 2007 2006 B (W) EPS** Cents 28.5 27.9 2.4% Dividend cover Times 1.5 - Tax rate % 30.5 31.0 0.5pp EBITDA / Interest cover 6.5 6.7 (0.2t) Debt to EBITDA 2.3 2.0 (0.3t) FFO to Debt 28.6 33.0 (4.4pp) Slightly weaker leverage measures due to F06 special dividend increasing debt * Pre significant items, includes one-time items ** Calculated using total number of shares on issue (i.e. includes shares owned by the Lion Nathan Achievement Rights Trust)

CASH REALISATION RATIO Pre Significant and One-Time Items GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX Net Operating Cash Flow 161.9 Cash After Tax Earnings 203.6 = 79.5% Net Profit After Tax 162.0 Depreciation 30.5 Amortisation 16.3 LNFA Tax Audit (9.5) Project Invest 4.3 Cash After Tax Earnings 203.6 Net Operating Cash Flow 122.7 LNFA Tax Audit 31.0 Project Invest 8.2 Adjusted Net Operating Cash Flow 161.9 Cash realisation rate of 80% post tax and interest or 84% pre tax and interest

GROUP PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX  Group Results  Key Ratios  Project Invest  Summary

PROJECT INVEST GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX Forecast full year F07 Project Invest costs of $30-$40m pre-tax (pre decision on Auckland brewery) On track for completion in F07 – majority of costs will be incurred in H2 Incurred $5.1m in H1 relating to a number of restructure initiatives and write downs that have occurred across the Group: restructure costs associated with Bevchain restructure of the NZ Sales and Operations functions finance organisation redesign A$m Total Australia (0.6) New Zealand (1.2) Wine Corporate (2.7) Total Costs (pre tax) (5.1) ($4.3m) post tax Majority of Project Invest costs will fall in H2

AUCKLAND BREWERY Strategic Review Update GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX Background Current Newmarket brewery site requires large capital investment - brew house, packaging, etc Newmarket site is valuable with significant redevelopment potential Strategic review commenced to determine optimal options for our brewery in Auckland Current Status Significant expressions of interest received for the Newmarket site We are simultaneously evaluating several strategic options Key drivers which will influence the decision are the land values of Newmarket, the potential new locations and the overall capital requirement Likely Timing Targeting to complete this strategic review phase in June / July

GROUP PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX  Group Results  Key Ratios  Project Invest  Summary

SUMMARY GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX 2007 first half result underpinned by Australian brewing EBIT growth Group EBIT +4.2% (pre one-time items) NPAT +3.6% (pre one-time and significant items) Interim dividend of 19 cents per share Issues impacting F07 and F08 Aluminium continues to trade above long term averages Barley cost up $6m in F07 (included in guidance) and a further estimated $9m in F08 Overall COGS per litre estimated to increase around 4.7% in F08 Smoking bans in enclosed areas adversely impacting on-premise consumption in Qld Similar smoking bans to follow in NSW/Vic (July 07) and SA/NT (Oct 07) Revised guidance for 2007 NPAT from Operations to $250-$260m, before: Impact of Auckland Brewery strategic review Project Invest costs LNFA tax audit net gain Operating net profit after tax on track for full year guidance of $250-$260m

21

APPENDIX GROUP PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX APPENDIX

GROUP RESULTS OVERVIEW GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX March 2007 Reported March 2006 % Change Net Sales (A$m) 1,039.5 987.2 5.3 EBIT 264.1 255.5 3.4 Interest (55.8) (39.5) (41.3) Earnings pre tax 208.3 216.0 (3.6) Tax (46.2) (66.9) 30.9 Minority Interest (0.1) (0.2) 50.0 NPAT 162.0 148.9 8.8 Reported NPAT +8.8%, including significant item and OTI

MARCH 2006 GROUP RESULTS OVERVIEW Adjusted for Significant & One-Time Items GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX March 2006 Reported One-Time Items March 2006 Operating Net sales (A$m) 987.2 - EBIT 255.5 2.8 258.3 Interest (39.5) Earnings pre tax 216.0 218.8 Tax (66.9) (0.4) (67.3) Minority Interest (0.2) NPAT 148.9 2.4 151.3 Note: this is F06

SECTOR EBIT Australia Six Months ended B (W) over 2006 A$m March 2007 GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX Six Months ended B (W) over 2006 A$m March 2007 2006 $m % Australia (operating) 231.4 221.0 10.4 4.7 Less Project Invest (0.6) (0.4) (0.2) Less Coopers - (2.2) 2.2 Add Provision Releases (e.g. Two Dogs) 2.4 (2.4) Australia (reported) 230.8 220.8 10.0 4.5 Australia up 4.7% pre one-time items

SECTOR EBIT New Zealand GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX Six Months ended B (W) over 2006 March 2007 2006 $m % New Zealand (operating) NZ$M 52.6 - Less Project Invest (1.3) (1.8) 0.5 New Zealand (reported) 51.3 50.8 1.0 A$M 45.1 46.7 (1.6) (3.4) New Zealand flat on YAGO pre one-time items

SECTOR EBIT Wine Six Months ended B (W) over 2006 A$m March 2007 2006 GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX Six Months ended B (W) over 2006 A$m March 2007 2006 $m % Wine (operating) 6.7 5.3 1.4 26.4 Less Project Invest (0.6) (0.4) (0.2) Wine (reported) pre SGARA 6.1 4.9 1.2 24.5 SGARA (0.7) 0.5 Wine (reported) 5.9 4.2 1.7 40.5 Wine up 26.4% pre one-time items

SECTOR EBIT Corporate and Group GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX Six Months ended B (W) over 2006 A$m March 2007 2006 % Corporate (operating) (15.0) (15.7) 0.7 4.5 Less Project Invest (2.7) (0.5) (2.2) Corporate (reported) (17.7) (16.2) (1.5) (9.3) Total Group EBIT (pre SGARA) 264.3 256.2 8.1 3.2 SGARA loss (0.2) (0.7) 0.5 71.4 Total Group EBIT 264.1 255.5 8.6 3.4 + 4.0% before one-time items Group EBIT up 4.0% pre SGARA and one-time items

Net Sales Revenue A$m March 2007 March 2006 % Change Australia 682.5 GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX A$m March 2007 March 2006 % Change Australia 682.5 632.0 8.0 New Zealand (NZ$) 319.5 300.3 6.4 New Zealand (A$) 281.0 276.0 1.8 Wine 76.0 77.7 (2.2) Corporate - 1.5 Group 1,039.5 987.2 5.3 Australian beer result underpins overall result with 8% revenue growth

Net Sales Revenue + 5.3% vs YAGO GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX + 5.3% vs YAGO Australia revenue up $50.5m, driven by NPD, Power brand growth and mix

Corporate Costs Yetimo sold on 3 July 06 GROUP RESULTS I KEY RATIOS I PROJECT INVEST I SUMMARY I APPENDIX Yetimo sold on 3 July 06 Corporate overhead impacted by non-recurring items