Dominika Kalinowska Hartmut Kuhfeld Uwe Kunert (DIW Berlin, Germany) The diesel trend in Europe: does taxation matter ? Presentation at the COST Action 355 Meeting Berlin November

Outline - Tax systems and assessment basis in cross EU comparison – evidence for significant differences. - Comparing petrol and diesel passenger cars – do existing differences in tax charges have any detectable impact. - Focusing on France and Germany – what factors might influence observable preferences in aggregate passenger car purchase and ownership behaviour.

Share of diesel passenger cars in new registrations L A B F E I P EU 15 D GB N CH NL DK IRL FIN IS S GR Quelle: ACEA. in %

Fiscal duties charged on passenger cars – EU comparison Untere Mittelklasse - VW Golf Ottomotor DKNIRLNLMPFINGBBIHASLOSDFGRPLECHCYLSKCZLVLTEST Euro / Jahr Umsatzsteuer Mineralöl Mineralölabgaben Versicherungsabgaben Kfz-Steuer Umsatzsteuer Kauf Zulassungsabgaben Annahmen: km, Verbrauch 6,8 l/100 km. Quellen: ACEA; ADAC; IRF; BMF; Europäische Kommission; Berechnungen des DIW Berlin (Stand: August 2005).

Total annualized duties charged – EU comparison for diesel car Untere Mittelklasse - VW Golf 2.0 SDI - Dieselmotor NDKIRLNLPCYMGRFINSBGBHSLODIAFECHPLSKLVCZLLTEST Euro / Jahr USt Mineralöl Mineralölsteuer Versicherungssteuer Kfz-Steuer USt Kauf Zulassungsabgaben Annahmen: km, Verbrauch 5,3 l/100 km. Quellen: ACEA; ADAC; IRF; Europäische Kommission; Berechnungen des DIW Berlin (Stand: August 2005).

Total annualized duties charged – comparison for petrol vs. diesel car Untere Mittelklasse - VW Golf AFEDPIGRIRLNL Euro / Jahr Golf Basis Ottomotor Golf 2.0 SDI - Diesel Annahmen: km, Verbrauch 6,8 bzw. 5,3 l/100 km. Quellen: ACEA; ADAC; IRF; Europäische Kommission; Berechnungen des DIW Berlin (Stand: August 2005).

Annualized duties – comparison for petrol vs. diesel passenger car

Share of diesel passenger cars in overall car fleet and new registrations

Focusing on France and Germany Looking closer at France and Germany – background of the comparison: - country specific tendencies within newly registered passenger cars from the EU comparison - STSM of the COST 355 hosted by INRETS-DEST under the supervision of Laurent Hivert and supported by the rest of the DEST research team coordinated by Christophe Rizet - direct comparison of data sources and exchange of research results - concentration on analysis of research results based on microdata from relevant travel surveys (not part of todays presentation) - what stands out?

Share of diesel passenger cars in new registrations L A B F E I P EU 15 D GB N CH NL DK IRL FIN IS S GR Quelle: ACEA. in %

Similarities and differences – F and G Parallels and dissimilarities in the purchase and ownership of passenger cars – is there any evidence for comparability of behavioural patterns: - new registrations and fleets of passenger cars - observable trends from time series - analogue developments in the two neighbour countries

Share of diesel passenger cars in overall car fleets and new registrations – comparison France and Germany, –

Passenger car fleets in France and Germany Potential explanations for apparent purchasing trends of passenger cars: - significance of engine-type specific differences in fiscal duties charged on passenger cars - fuel price evolution of petrol vs. diesel – the fiscal component - additional aspects – efficiency effects and supply side reaction from the automobile industry

Total annualized duties – comparison for a diesel car in NL, G, F, CH

Fuel price evolution for petrol and diesel – France,

Fuel price evolution for petrol and diesel – Germany,

Fuel price differences between petrol and diesel

Fiscal duties charged on fuels – France and Germany

Fuel price developements and new passenger car registrations – France, –

Concluding remarks - for 14 of 17 countries studied clear positioning of diesel-share in relation to taxation can be observed - fuel duties contribute strongest to relative advantage of diesel cars - structure of the petroleum tax favours in many cases the diesel fuel and provides as a result for lower per-km cost - what potential consequences has the fiscal promotion of diesel fuel – the rebound effect - producers response to the diesel-trend – the automobile industry has widened their product range - promotion of diesel cars for CO2 reduction targets

Concluding Remarks - for more than a decade F has been dominating within the EU with its diesel car shares in new registrations as well as in the overall national passsenger car fleet evolution - the consistently existing relative fiscal cost advantage of diesel vehicles supported by their fuel efficiency allowed the French car users to shift their preferences towards this particular engine segment over a fairly long time period – supply side adjustments from the car manufacturers side followed contributing positively to the evolving diesel passenger car demand - since beginning of the 90s diesel cars have been evolving also in G into an economically attractive automobility alternative – rising shares of newly registered diesel cars clearly indicate this tendency - where does the development in G lead – can Frances diesel-trend be seen as pathbreaking? and can advanced methodological analysis clear the picture?

Concluding Remarks - for more than a decade F has been dominating within the EU with its diesel car shares in new registrations as well as in the overall national passsenger car fleet evolution - plausible explanations for the evident popularity of diesel passanger vehicles in F are the moderate annualized taxation charges on cars with diesel engine, in particular the long run favourable fiscality of diesel fuel in contrast to petrol - the consistently existing relative price advantage of diesel vehicles supported by their fuel efficiency allowed the French car users to shift their preferences towards this particular engine segment over a fairly long time period – supply side adjustments from the car manufacturers side followed contributing positively to the evolving diesel passenger car demand - since beginning of the 90s diesel cars evolved also in G into an economically attractive automobility alternative – rising shares of newly registered diesel cars clearly indicate this tendency for G - where does the development in G lead – can Frances diesel-trend be seen as pathbreaking? and can advanced methodological analysis clear the picture?