A Physicist’s View of SOC Models

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Paradigms of complex systems
Advertisements

Modeling Process Quality
Continuous Probability Distributions.  Experiments can lead to continuous responses i.e. values that do not have to be whole numbers. For example: height.
Statistics. Large Systems Macroscopic systems involve large numbers of particles.  Microscopic determinism  Macroscopic phenomena The basis is in mechanics.
Independence of H and L  problem of L distributions treated in 2 dimensions  specific 2-d simulation  physical mechanisms responsible for avalanche.
Nazarenko, Warwick Dec Wave turbulence beyond spectra Sergey Nazarenko, Warwick, UK Collaborators: L. Biven, Y. Choi, Y. Lvov, A.C. Newell, M. Onorato,
Statistics Lecture 11.
CHAPTER 6 Statistical Analysis of Experimental Data
Distribution Function properties. Density Function – We define the derivative of the distribution function F X (x) as the probability density function.
Poisson Distribution The Poisson Distribution is used for Discrete events (those you can count) In a continuous but finite interval of time and space The.
Distributions Dr. Omar Al Jadaan Assistant Professor – Computer Science & Mathematics.
B AD 6243: Applied Univariate Statistics Understanding Data and Data Distributions Professor Laku Chidambaram Price College of Business University of Oklahoma.
Modeling of apparent contact lines in evaporating liquid films Vladimir Ajaev Southern Methodist University, Dallas, TX joint work with T. Gambaryan-Roisman,
Continuous Probability Distributions  Continuous Random Variable  A random variable whose space (set of possible values) is an entire interval of numbers.
Statistics for Engineer Week II and Week III: Random Variables and Probability Distribution.
Poisson Random Variable Provides model for data that represent the number of occurrences of a specified event in a given unit of time X represents the.
On project probabilistic cost analysis from LHC tender data Ph. Lebrun CERN, Geneva, Switzerland TILC’09, Tsukuba, Japan April 2009.
Strategies and Rubrics for Teaching Chaos and Complex Systems Theories as Elaborating, Self-Organizing, and Fractionating Evolutionary Systems Fichter,
1 太陽雑誌会 (Main) Takako T. Ishii ( 石井 ) Flare occurrence rate and modeling of soft X-ray light curves 1. Introduction 2. Model description 3.
Exact solutions for first-passage and related problems in certain classes of queueing system Michael J Kearney School of Electronics and Physical Sciences.
Accelerating Precursory Activity in Statistical Fractal Automata Dion Weatherley and Peter Mora QUAKES, Univ. of Qld., Australia.
Janine Bolliger 1, Julien C. Sprott 2, David J. Mladenoff 1 1 Department of Forest Ecology & Management, University of Wisconsin-Madison 2 Department of.
Initial evidence for self-organized criticality in blackouts Ben Carreras & Bruce Poole Oak Ridge National Lab David Newman Physics, U. of Alaska Ian Dobson.
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Section 5-5 Poisson Probability Distributions.
B AD 6243: Applied Univariate Statistics Data Distributions and Sampling Professor Laku Chidambaram Price College of Business University of Oklahoma.
Probability Refresher COMP5416 Advanced Network Technologies.
IE 300, Fall 2012 Richard Sowers IESE. 8/30/2012 Goals: Rules of Probability Counting Equally likely Some examples.
4.3 More Discrete Probability Distributions NOTES Coach Bridges.
Janine Bolliger Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL/FNP,
Chapter 20 Statistical Considerations Lecture Slides The McGraw-Hill Companies © 2012.
Free Powerpoint Templates ROHANA BINTI ABDUL HAMID INSTITUT E FOR ENGINEERING MATHEMATICS (IMK) UNIVERSITI MALAYSIA PERLIS ROHANA BINTI ABDUL HAMID INSTITUT.
Introduction A probability distribution is obtained when probability values are assigned to all possible numerical values of a random variable. It may.
Chap 5-1 Chapter 5 Discrete Random Variables and Probability Distributions Statistics for Business and Economics 6 th Edition.
Discrete Probability Distributions Chapter 4. § 4.3 More Discrete Probability Distributions.
Created by Tom Wegleitner, Centreville, Virginia Section 4-5 The Poisson Distribution.
Statistics -Continuous probability distribution 2013/11/18.
The Pure Birth Process Derivation of the Poisson Probability Distribution Assumptions events occur completely at random the probability of an event occurring.
Gravity Wave Turbulence in Wave Tanks S Lukaschuk 1, S Nazarenko 2 1 Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, University of Hull 2 Mathematics Institute, University.
Particle acceleration by direct electric field in an active region modelled by a CA model CA modelAcceleration modelParticle distributionConclusionsIntroductionX-ray.
Theoretical distributions: the Normal distribution.
Chapter 6 – Continuous Probability Distribution Introduction A probability distribution is obtained when probability values are assigned to all possible.
Introduction to Probability - III John Rundle Econophysics PHYS 250
MECH 373 Instrumentation and Measurements
Chapter 14 Fitting Probability Distributions
Ryan Woodard (Univ. of Alaska - Fairbanks)
Probability Distributions: a review
Ex1: Event Generation (Binomial Distribution)
Discrete Probability Distributions
Dimension Review Many of the geometric structures generated by chaotic map or differential dynamic systems are extremely complex. Fractal : hard to define.
Appendix A: Probability Theory
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION Dr.Fatima Alkhalidi
Psychology 202a Advanced Psychological Statistics
The Loop Width Distribution – Are we Hitting Rock Bottom
Review of Probability Theory
Team Coordinator: Markus J. Aschwanden
Self-organized criticality of landscape patterning
Software Reliability Models.
Maximum Likelihood Find the parameters of a model that best fit the data… Forms the foundation of Bayesian inference Slide 1.
Probability & Statistics Probability Theory Mathematical Probability Models Event Relationships Distributions of Random Variables Continuous Random.
Probability Review for Financial Engineers
Econometric Models The most basic econometric model consists of a relationship between two variables which is disturbed by a random error. We need to use.
Additional notes on random variables
Chapter 4 Discrete Probability Distributions.
Additional notes on random variables
Chapter 3 : Random Variables
CS723 - Probability and Stochastic Processes
Essential Statistics Introducing Probability
Random Variables A random variable is a rule that assigns exactly one value to each point in a sample space for an experiment. A random variable can be.
Berlin Chen Department of Computer Science & Information Engineering
1/2555 สมศักดิ์ ศิวดำรงพงศ์
Presentation transcript:

A Physicist’s View of SOC Models Presentation by: Markus J. Aschwanden 2013 September 16-20 International Space Science Institute (ISSI) Hallerstrasse 6, Bern, Switzerland http://www.issibern.ch/teams/s-o-turbulence/index.html

Solar Physics Social Physics Astrophysics Financial Physics It’s all physics : Solar Physics Social Physics Astrophysics Financial Physics Self-Organized Criticality Systems Magnetospheric Physics Biophysics Geophysics

A SOC event is an instability in a nonlinear dissipative system

An instability has an initally exponential-growing behavior, with subsequent saturation or quenching of the instability (exponential-growth and/or logistic-growth models)

Frequency Distribution Frequency distribution of dissipated energies N(W) and fluxes N(F) are power-laws for exponential or logistic growth curves WS(tS)

Binomial Statistics For incoherent (linear) random events: Gaussian, Poisson, exponential function Scale-free size probability for coherent (nonlinear) avalanches: Powerlaw function

The statistical probability distribution function (PDF) of all possible avalanche sizes in a finite volume scales reciprocally to the avalanche volume, which is a powerlaw function. S=Euclidean dimension of space (S=1,2,3,…)

All size distributions N(x) can be derived from scaling laws of L(x)~xa Statistical probability for avalanches with Euclidean size L: Physical scaling laws (2-parameter correlations): Derived occurrence probability frequency disributions:

Common observables in astrophysics: F = flux (or intensity in a given wavelength) P = peak flux of time profile of an event E = total (time-integrated energy) or total flux (fluence) Derived occurrence frequency distributions:

Summary of powerlaw indices : Powerlaw slopes:

3-Parameter Scaling Laws 3-Parameter scaling laws x=LaHb require the knowledge of 2 distributions N(L) and N(H) in order to derive the size distribution of the 3rd variable, N(x). The scaling law can then be substituted and the integration over the other two variables has to be performed under consideration of the truncated distributions.

Universal Probability Statistics Hydrodynamic Physcial System Instumental & Observable Parameters

Using the observed statistical size distributions (in particular their powerlaw slopes) we can retrieve the scaling laws and correlations between the underlying physical parameters. The generic SOC models (sandpile avalanches and cellular automatons) mimic the evolution of instabilities with discretized mathematical redistribution rules for next-neighbor interactions on a microscopic level  toy models for physical instabilities observed on a macrosocpic level.

Metrics of Observables, Statistical Distributions and Physical Processes