SOA Annual Meeting 2005 Fertility Symposium

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Presentation transcript:

SOA Annual Meeting 2005 Fertility Symposium Canada Pension Plan: Fertility Projections Panel 1: A Primer on Fertility Rates SOA Annual Meeting 2005 Fertility Symposium 14 November 2005

Presentation Canada Pension Plan – key assumptions Total and cohort fertility rates Comparison of G8 countries Size and aging of Canadian population Sensitivity tests – aging and financial impacts

Canada Pension Plan - Key Assumptions Fertility rates Mortality rates Net migration rate CPP disability rates Retirement rates Unemployment rate LF participation rates Real-wage differential CPI increases Real rate of investment return

Total and Cohort Fertility Rates(*) TFR 1952-1976: 3.1 Projected Total fertility rate Cohort fertility rate Latest complete cohort 2001, born 1952-1956: 1.9 21st CPP Report Ultimate C/TFR: 1.6 in 2016+ TFR 1977-2001: 1.6 TFR: ~1.5 2002-2009 (*) The cohort fertility rate is for a 29 year old female in a given year.

Cohort Fertility Rates Mean age at motherhood would continue to increase: 1975 2001 2016 26.2 yrs 28.5 yrs 29.4 yrs Children per woman 2.2 1.7 1.6 80% 63% 47% Birth years

Comparison Between the G8 Countries Canada(*) France Germany Italy Japan Russia UK USA Total Fertility Rate 2005-2010 1.52 1.85 1.34 1.38 1.37 1.40 1.66 2.04 2010-2015 1.56 1.41 1.44 1.70 1.98 2015-2020 1.60 1.48 1.45 1.51 1.77 1.91 2020-2025 1.55 1.58 1.83 1.86 (*) Projections for Canada are based on the 21st CPP Report. Projections for the other G8 countries are based on United Nations population projections, 2004 revision. (*) Projections for Canada are based on the 21st CPP Report. Projections for the other G8 countries are based on United Nations population projections, 2004 revision.

Life Expectancies at Birth (with improvements after each year shown) 5.0 7.1 5.8 4.7 3.4 3.2 2.9

Evolution of Migration as % of Population Projected 2003 net migration Ultimate: 0.54% in 2020+

Population Projections – Size & Aging The Canadian population is aging. Mean age in 2003: 37.6 years 2030: 43.1 years Population will continue to age from low fertility, increasing life expectancies, and aging of baby boomers. Net migrants relatively younger than population  will impede aging of population. Population will continue to increase, but at declining rate due to projected low fertility. Total dependency ratio (< 20 & 65+) / (20-64) will increase from 61/100 in 2003  78/100 in 2030.

Components of Population Growth (thousands) Births and Migration Natural growth < 0 from 2030+ Births Deaths

Age Structure of Canada 1975 Males Females 1975

Age Structure of Canada 1975, 2003 Males Females 2003 1975

Age Structure of Canada 1975, 2003, 2075 Males 65+ Females 25% 13% 8% 2075 2003 1975

Sensitivity Tests OBJECTIVE: Measure the effect of alternative assumptions on financial results of the CPP. Most sensitivity tests performed one assumption at a time, holding rest at their best-estimate levels. 2 tests performed per assumption  wide range of potential experience. “Low-cost” scenario  decrease in contribution rate. “High-cost” scenario  increase in contribution rate. Changes in fertility rate have small short-term impact on financial position, but long-term impact can be significant.

Sensitivity Tests - Fertility Total Fertility Rate Assumption 2001 2016+ Low fertility 1.51 1.30 Best-Estimate 1.60 High fertility 1.90

Age Structure Under Varying Fertility Assumptions 2030 Males Females low fertility best- estimate high fertility

Age Structure Under Varying Fertility Assumptions 2075 Males 65+ Females 30% 25% 22% low fertility best- estimate high fertility

Sensitivity Test – Fertility CPP Asset/Expenditure Ratio 9.9% Ultimate Contribution Rate Low cost: 1.9 (Steady-State rate 9.5%) Best-Estimate: 1.6 (Steady-State rate 9.8%) High cost: 1.3 (Steady-State rate 10.1%)

Sensitivity Test – Employment CPP Asset/Expenditure Ratio 9.9% Ultimate Contribution Rate Low cost: LF participation rate in 2030 at 81% (Steady-State rate 9.3%) Best-Estimate: LF participation rate in 2030 at 73% High cost: LF participation rate in 2030 at 71% (Steady-State rate 10.0%)

Sensitivity Test – Real Rate of Return CPP Asset/Expenditure Ratio 9.9% Ultimate Contribution Rate Low cost: 5.1% (Steady-State rate 9.3%) Best-Estimate: 4.1% High cost: 3.1% (Steady-State rate 10.3%)

SOA Annual Meeting 2005 Fertility Symposium Thank you. Canada Pension Plan: Fertility Projections Panel 1: A Primer on Fertility Rates SOA Annual Meeting 2005 Fertility Symposium Thank you. 14 November 2005