Maximum and Minimum Nuclear Power Paths for the Republic of Korea Jungmin KANG CISAC, Stanford University 2007 AES Meeting Beijing, China, Oct.31 – Nov.2, 2007

Contents Current status and prospects of nuclear power in the ROK Constraints in deploying new NPPs in the ROK Possibility of deployment of NPPs in the DPRK Concluding remarks

I. Current status and prospects of nuclear power in the ROK Figure 1. NPPs sites in the ROK

I. Current status and prospects of nuclear power in the ROK (cont’) Table 1. Current and planned nuclear power in the ROK Site Unit Type Capacity (MWe) Initial Operation Kori Kori-1 Kori-2 Kori-3 Kori-4 Sinkori-1 Sinkori-2 Sinkori-3 Sinkori-4 PWR 587 650 950 1000 1400 Apr. 1978 Jul. 1983 Sept. 1985 Apr. 1986 Dec. 2010 Dec. 2011 Sept. 2013 Sept. 2014 Yonggwang Yonggwang-1 Yonggwang-2 Yonggwang-3 Yonggwang-4 Yonggwang-5 Yonggwang-6 Aug. 1986 Jun. 1987 Mar. 1995 Jan. 1996 Apr. 2002 Oct. 2002 Ulchin Ulchin-1 Ulchin-2 Ulchin-3 Ulchin-4 Ulchin-5 Ulchin-6 Sinulchin-1 Sinulchin-2 Sept. 1988 Sept. 1989 Aug. 1998 Dec. 1999 Jul. 2004 Jun. 2005 Dec. 2015 Dec. 2016 Wolsong Wolsong-1 Wolsong-2 Wolsong-3 Wolsong-4 CANDU 679 700 Apr. 1983 Jul. 1997 Jul. 1998 Oct. 1999 Sinwolsong-1 Sinwolsong-2 Oct. 2011 Oct. 2012

I. Current status and prospects of nuclear power in the ROK (cont’) 16 PWRs and 4 CANDUs in operation 6 PWRs under construction 2 PWRs to be deployed by 2016 Therefore, 24 PWRs and 4 CANDUs in operation by 2016 (i.e., 27.3 GWe, corresponding to 42.9% electricity generation in 2016)

I. Current status and prospects of nuclear power in the ROK (cont’) Figure 2. Current and planned nuclear power in the ROK

I. Current status and prospects of nuclear power in the ROK (cont’) Table 2. Number of NPPs in the current sites of the ROK Site Type Current and planned by 2016 Maximum deployable Kori PWR 8 12 Yonggwang 6 Ulchin 10 Wolsong CANDU 4 2

I. Current status and prospects of nuclear power in the ROK (cont’) Table 3. Cases for the conceivable NPPs deployment scenario in the ROK Case Assumption Case 1 No replacement of NPPs once they are decommissioned Case 2 Replacement of NPPs with decommissioned ones in 10 years after shutdown by 2050 (1.4GWe PWRs for decommissioned PWRs while 0.7 Gwe CANDUs for decommissioned CANDUs) Case 3 Replacement of NPPs with decommissioned ones in 10 years after shutdown by 2050 (1.4GWe PWRs for decommissioned PWRs and CANDUs) Case 4 In addition to Case 3, further deployment of eight 1.4GWe PWRs since 2017 (one in each year) (i.e., +4 units at Kori, +2 units at Ulchin, +2 units at Wolsong)

I. Current status and prospects of nuclear power in the ROK (cont’) Table 3. Cases for the conceivable NPPs deployment scenario in the ROK (cont’) Sub-case Assumption Sub-case 1 No life-time extension: 40y for less than 1.0 GWe PWRs, 60y for 1.4GWe PWRs, and 30y for CANDUs Sub-case 2 Life-time extension: 50y for less than 1.0 GWe PWRs, 60y for 1.4GWe PWRs, and 30y for CANDUs Sub-case 3 Life-time extension: 60y for less than 1.0 GWe PWRs, 60y for 1.4GWe PWRs, and 30y for CANDUs Sub-case 4 Life-time extension: 50y for less than 1.0 GWe PWRs, 60y for 1.4GWe PWRs, and 40y for CANDUs Sub-case 5 Life-time extension: 60y for less than 1.0 GWe PWRs, 60y for 1.4GWe PWRs, and 40y for CANDUs

I. Current status and prospects of nuclear power in the ROK (cont’) Figure 3. Installed nuclear capacity in the ROK (case 1)

I. Current status and prospects of nuclear power in the ROK (cont’) Figure 4. Installed nuclear capacity in the ROK (case 2)

I. Current status and prospects of nuclear power in the ROK (cont’) Figure 5. Installed nuclear capacity in the ROK (case 3)

I. Current status and prospects of nuclear power in the ROK (cont’) Figure 6. Installed nuclear capacity in the ROK (case 4)

II. Constraints in deploying new NPPs in the ROK Number of NPPs to be deployed in the ROK is mainly limited due to site restriction resulted from strong oppositions from local communities against nuclear facilities. Therefore, maximum number of NPPs to be deployed in the ROK would be 34 PWRs if no new site for NPPs are available except current four sites.

III. Possibility of deployment of NPPs in the DPRK The DPRK has been requiring two LWRs (1,000 MWe) as a reward for abandoning its nuclear weapons program. However, problems of poor condition of electric grid and relatively small total electricity capacity of the DPRK cannot afford the deployment of large electricity capacities of NPPs till those problems are solved, which might not be expected within roughly a couple of decades. Therefore, several smaller power capacity of NPPs, e.g. a few hundred MWe NPPs, would be more attractive for the DPRK than two 1,000 MWe NPPs, under the IAEA safeguards, in a near future. Removing the concerns of spent fuel management and fresh fuel supply assurance for the smaller power capacity of NPPs of the DPRK, a recent Russian proposal of fuel lease and take-back would be an interesting option for the DPRK.

IV. Concluding remarks Maximum number of NPPs to be deployed in the ROK would be 34 PWRs if no new site for NPPs are available except current four sites. A study is under way looking for a possibility of deployment of smaller electricity capacities of NPPs in the DPRK in a near future, as a part of nuclear power system of unified Korean peninsula in the future.