NYMTC’s Land Use Model Land Use Model Workshop May 1, 2008 Ali Mohseni Manager of Model Development Group New York Metropolitan Transportation Council

Why we need a Land Use Model? To understand how Land Use development throughout the region will change in response to changes in transportation system. To understand how changes in Land use will cause changes in travel pattern. A feedback loop could ensure consistency between land use and travel demand. Provide capability of performing “what If Analysis”. To meet the needs of various NYBPM users in the region.

History of NYMTC’s LUM Existing NYMTC-LUM was developed 10 years ago as part of the regional NYBPM package; it was delivered in 2003. Because of complexity of NYBPM with a lengthy process for testing, adjustment, update, training and application and lack of additional resources, so LUM was never evaluated, tested or used by NYMTC staff. NYMTC’s LUM has been used for a corridor study in the region. NYMTC LUM was never used NYMTC. Because of lots of complexity, uncertainties and unknown in BPM it was decided not to use it in that time. BPM being used widely through out the region for variety of projects. Major update is planned for BPM to take place by 2011 including new survey. 2040 SED needed for next BPM base update to 2008.

Current NYMTC - LUM Combination features of : Time Horizon: CATLAS (Chicago Area Transportation and Land Use Analysis) NYSIM (New York Area Simulation Model) CPHMM (Chicago Prototype Housing Market Model) The Stockholm Model Time Horizon: One-step run for horizon year Five-year incremental run Three major categories of inputs Transport improvements Base year Land Use Horizon year basic employment

Current Issues Unreliable SED allocation from county to TAZ by using manual method which directly affect the NYBPM outputs. The interactions between transportation system and land use is not incorporated Having a land use model but not incorporated into the planning process. Not capable of conducting certain scenario planning and land use policy analysis. Unable to address the regional land use trends, plans and policies in the transportation decision-making process. An RFP is being developed for development of SED for 2008 base and need a procedure or method or LUM for allocation of SED at TAZ level

Now. . . NYMTC staff reasonably proficient in using NYBPM. Responsive to member agencies requests and other NYBPM users. Two years time window before the next major update of NYBPM Intend to activate the NYMTC-LUM, but…. VMT may change. Any improvement or changes in BPM will effect the BPM outputs including VMT. But BPM output has to reconcile with HPMS and changes on VMT does not have effect on Conformity.

NYMTC Land Use Model Options No action – continue taking SED estimates using manual method. Evaluate the existing NYMTC-LUM and activate and update it or develop a new LUM based on regional needs.

NYMTC Land Use Model Options No action – continue to use current SED forecast procedures. Unreliable SED allocation by using manual method which directly affect the performance of the BPM. Having a land use model but not incorporated into the planning process.

NYMTC Land Use Model Options Activate and update the existing LUM or develop a new one. For SED allocation at TAZ level More reasonable and scientific SED allocation process. Capable of conducting scenario planning and policy analysis. VMT may change (decrease or increase). Any changes to BPM will impact the BPM outputs including VMT.

Next Steps PFAC members understand the related issues, then decide… Continue current practice (not update and/or use the existing NYMTC-LUM). Release the RFP to evaluate the existing LUM and update it or develop a new one.

THE END Thank You!