Systems Analysis Forum (SAF) Elena Rovenskaya & Ulf Dieckmann (co-leaders) Institutional Review Panel Visit, 8-9 May 2017

SAF in IIASA’s Research Plan 2016-2020 IIASA’s Systems Analysis Forum (SAF) will facilitate and catalyze methodological research at IIASA: Ongoing methodological innovations to support IIASA’s leadership in the systems analysis of global and universal problems Innovation in interdisciplinary and integrated perspectives Co-development with applied research activities at IIASA

SAF in IIASA’s Research Plan 2016-2020 The SAF follows a twofold approach: All IIASA programs develop methods and tools in different ways — SAF will help to consolidate and support these activities and thereby optimize the cross- fertilization of methodological and applied research at IIASA Dedicated SAF activities will promote exchanges among IIASA researchers and methodological experts around the world, accelerating knowledge transfer and methodological inspiration

SAF in IIASA’s Research Plan 2016-2020 Methodological areas where radically new approaches are needed: Decentralized decision-making and bounded rationality Compounding uncertainties and systemic risks Nonlinearities and regime shifts Social interactions and collective phenomena Spatial hierarchies and network dynamics Synergisms and antagonisms across multiple objectives Scientific visualization and communication …

EXTERNAL CORE ACTIVITIES SAF Strategy Combining internal and external core activities with satellite activities, to build synergies between in-house capacity, world-leading experts, and NMO interests for boosting systems analysis Bi- and multi-lateral NMO projects on systems analysis EXTERNAL CORE ACTIVITIES Systems-analysis conferences Systems-analysis courses Partnership with Complexity Science Hub Vienna (CSHV) INTERNAL CORE ACTIVITIES Exploratory projects Visiting scholars … Workshops on systems analysis with NMO countries …

Internal Core Activities Visiting Scholars: Inviting world-leading experts in strategically chosen areas of systems analysis for lectures and discussions with programs Status Currently organized at program level Exploratory Projects: Regular internal calls for year-long small-scale exploratory projects, which are to be highly innovative in methodology and/or application and should ideally cut across two or more IIASA programs 2013 call – 13 submitted, 5 selected for funding 2016 call – 26 submitted, 8 selected for funding Synergies with programmatic and cross-cutting research

SAF Exploratory Projects Selected in 2013 Development of robust rescaling methods for integrated water, food, energy security management under uncertainty – ASA & ESM Reconsidering models of catastrophic risk – RPV A maximum likelihood analysis of a stochastic agent-based model of the global energy system – TNT & ASA Systematic misperceptions of systemic risk – ASA & EEP Analysis of close-to-optimal zones in LP decision-support models – MAG, ASA & ESM

SAF Exploratory Projects Selected in 2016 Economic migration, capital flows, and welfare – ASA & POP FRED - Freedom, Emergence and Dimensions: Exploring contributions from Ergodic Theory of Chaos to Systems Analysis – ESM & ASA Navigating the Pareto front: Understanding economic-environmental tradeoffs under value diversity among stakeholders – EEP, ASA & ESM Integrated assessment tools as multi-layer networks – AIR, WAT & ASA A big-data approach to systemic risk in very large financial networks – RISK & ASA Accounting for behavioral spillovers in the global adoption of sustainable technologies and lifestyles: toward next-generation scenario modeling – ENE & TNT Systems thinking for transformation - a scoping and prototyping project – ERCL, ESM, RISK & DI

External Core Activities Systems-Analysis Conferences: International conferences attracting to IIASA’s premises world-leading experts in systems analysis, to communicate recent advances and forge new perspectives Status SA2015 53 speakers and chairs of sessions from 16 countries Sessions ranged from new advances in systems analysis to trans- disciplinary inspiration in systems thinking to devising integrated solutions 303 registered participants from 30 different countries 1232 people from 67 countries viewed the webcast 98 poster presenters 153 people tweeted 718 tweets which reached a total audience of 333,637 twitter followers Synergies with programmatic and cross-cutting research

External Core Activities Systems-Analysis Courses: Courses for young scientists organized at IIASA with lectures by leading researchers from IIASA and the IIASA network Status In planning phase Several smaller courses have been held already, e.g., for young scientists from South Africa in April 2016 and for young scientists from Russia in November 2016 Synergies with capacity development activities 30-35 participants, 3-day programs of lectures, exercises, and discussions For more information: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/about/ events/161123-russiandelegation.html

Satellite Activities Workshops on Systems Analysis with NMO Countries Status With Santa Fe Institute: Workshop “Theory and knowledge systems for sustainability science” in October 2013 With Aalto University: Seminar “Frontiers of systems analysis” in November 2013 With NSF China: Conference “Evolution of cooperation” in April 2014 Bi- and Multi-lateral Projects on Systems Analysis with NMO Countries In planning phase and cross-cutting research and NMO engagement strategy Synergies with programmatic

Satellite Activities Partnership with Complexity Science Hub Vienna (CSHV, www.csh.ac.at) Status Partnership established in 2016 The CSHV is a joint initiative of six Austrian research institutes and universities aiming at hosting, educating, and inspiring complex systems scientists who are dedicated to collect, handle, aggregate, and make sense of big data in ways that are directly valuable for science and society; focus areas include smart cities, innovation dynamics, medical, social, ecological, and economic systems IIASA intends to engage with the CSHV network, to conduct joint research, and to co-organize workshops on topics of joint interest Synergies with programmatic and cross-cutting research

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