National Hurricane Conference Training Session Panel: Decision-Making Tools for Risk Management & Assessment Claire Drury, HAZUS Program Manager

Earthquakes, Hurricanes, and Floods Will Continue to Occur… No one has found a way to disperse hurricanes or stop earthquakes. So the question we have to ask ourselves is:

Earthquakes, Hurricanes, and Floods Will Continue to Occur, so… We need ways to communicate risk so that communities will be informed & motivated to plan, prepare, mitigate & respond… We need to be able to communicate risk so that etc.

Earthquakes, Hurricanes, and Floods Will Continue to Occur… …so that we can minimize damage and loss of life & prevent natural hazards from becoming natural disasters So that we can manage risk and keep events from becoming diasters.

To support risk communication and other purposes, FEMA has developed HAZUS-MH -- a multi-hazard risk assessment and loss estimation software program (animate on The name: HAZUS stands for Hazards US

HAZUS-MH: Integrated Hurricane, Flood & Earthquake Model HAZUS –MH is an integrated model consisting of 3 hazard-specific modules— hurricane wind , flood and earthquake loss estimation modules Nearing completion—recently begun internal testing and hope to have a version for “expert user” beta testing later this spring.

HAZUS-MH is a decision-support tool for state & local risk managers Region Community Neighborhood FEMA developed HAZUS-MH to be a tool for building state and local capability for risk and disaster management. Users can define study regions and calculate damage & loss at many different levels. The basic level of study for hurricane and flood modules is the census block; earthquake uses the census tracts. FEMA provides HAZUS & training & tech support to state & local users at no charge. EXAMPLE: State of South Carolina recently conducted a statewide earthquake risk assessment to support its mitigation and response plans.

HAZUS-MH and Risk Management Prepare Recover Mitigate HAZUS-MH can help communities do the planning that is essential to effectively manage their risk. The results of HAZUS loss analyses have applications in all four phases of disaster risk management How well a community prepares for, mitigates the effects of, responds to, and recovers from a hazard depends on how well the community has planned. Respond

HAZUS-MH equips decision-makers to: IDENTIFY vulnerable areas that may require planning considerations (e.g., land use or building code requirements) ASSESS the level of readiness and preparedness to deal with a disaster before the disaster occurs ESTIMATE potential losses from specific hazard events, including pre-event, near real-time, and post-event report capability DECIDE on how to allocate resources for the most effective and efficient mitigation, response and recovery PRIORITIZE the mitigation measures that need to be implemented to reduce future losses HAZUS analyses provide information that equips risk managers to : Identify vulnerable areas---that should require special permitting or construction requirements to reduce future economic loss and protect lives. HAZUS can be used to develop realistic training/exercise scenarios & allow first responders & emergency managers determine if they are prepared to respond. Estimate potential impacts prior to or following an event which will give emergency managers vital information for briefing officials and understanding the magnitude of catastrophic events. (animate on click: lead-in and bullets appear individually)

HAZUS-MH: Features GIS Technology Nationwide Databases HAZUS features: GIS---ESRI ArcGIS & Spatial Analyst (for fllod) Allows to map and display outputs—multiple layers of data National data sets that can be enhanced—gives user a GIS system that does not require data to be brought in in order to run Technically robust methods for determining loss—expert input and technical oversight to analysis methods to insure credibility of results GIS Technology Nationwide Databases Nationally Standardized Loss Estimation and Risk Assessment Methodology

HAZUS-MH: Features Physical Impacts Economic Impacts Social Impacts Comprehensive model with outputs in areas for which community risk managers need to know GIS Technology Nationwide Databases Nationally Standardized Loss Estimation and Risk Assessment Methodology

HAZUS-MH: Analysis Outputs Many outputs—provide summary reports and these can also be output in text formats or mapped. As discussed earlier, HAZUS-MH uses engineering analysis to estimate hazard loads, building response, and losses. For earthquake, HAZUS-MH uses ground motion and ground failure information to estimate losses. To estimate flood losses, HAZUS-MH uses flood frequency, depth, discharge, and velocity. And to estimate hurricane losses, HAZUS-MH uses information about wind pressure, windborne missiles, and rain. HAZUS-MH uses these parameters to estimate direct and induced damage, as well as direct and indirect economic losses. This table shows the current capabilities of each model.

HAZUS-MH at the NHC Hurricane Module Demonstrations Tuesday 8:30-5:00 Cabildo B (2nd floor) Mitigation Workshop: HAZUS-MH Hurricane Model Thursday 1:30-3:00 Cabildo A (2nd floor) Visit the HAZUS-MH exhibit booth Booth #23 in the French Market Exhibit Hall (3rd floor) If you are interested, there are several opportunities at the conference to learn more about HAZUS-MH and get more detailed information. I’ll be available also to answer questions following panel . Also, on Wednesday morning FEMA Region 6 (Texas,New Mexico, Oklahoma, Louisiana and Arkansas)will hold a meeting to organize a HAZUS User group for the region. Establishing a HAZUS User Group is an efficient way to coordinate risk management activities and involve all relevant community groups. We were asked to relate a “success story” as well as discuss an area where we need improved technology. I would share that FEMA’s experience with User Groups has been one of the successes. While we have provided only limited support for formation of some of these groups (now about 12 across the country) We’ve found User groups to be a very effective & cost-efficient way for our users to leverage resources in the community/state or region for using HAZUS and to support users being able to make the most effective use of the model and also to share information and data/ develop networks for sharing expertise, not only in using HAZUS but networks that support data and information sharing that builds risk communication among the different agencies and the private sector in the community to better manage risk. Bottom line is that users don’t have to “go it alone”. They have access to other users who may be more skilled, who can provide technical support and also serve as catalysts for ideas on how to reach decision-makers and get results. EX: Relate Region 9 experience with federal/state/local/ academic/engineering and private sector participants like Charles Schwab & Wells Fargo As to an area where we need technology improvements or the ability to take advantage of advancing technology—I would comment that HAZUS use in post-disaster loss analysis will be enhanced with the ability to import “real or near-real time data about the event” For the hurricane model, this will most likely be in the form of wind swath or other storm data that is generated by NOAA. We have been working with NOAA Hurricane Research Division to determine what data could be made available on a regular basis to use in HAZUS. We have so far identified one very promising experimental data set. In the future, we hope to continue to work and coordinate with NOAA and NASA to improve the hurricane module, as well as the other models in HAZUS-MH. This is a time of exponential growth in information & data technologies. Opportunities such as this one to share experiences and educate ourselves as to what other agencies and organizations are developing is essential to improving government’s ability to support state and local disaster risk managers. At the federal level, we can support & facilitate, but it is at the local level where risk management takes place.

HAZUS: User Groups HAZUS USER GROUP Medical Personnel Legislative Contacts PRIVATE FEDERAL Facility Manager UTILITIES HAZUS USER GROUP STATE Emergency Response Personnel UNIVERSITIES Technical Experts Establishing a HAZUS User Group is an efficient way to coordinate risk management activities and involve all relevant community groups. HAZUS user groups serve to: create a greater understanding of hazards and their potential impact on the community support better informed decision-makers at all levels produce a higher level of information and scenario development than can be produced through single organizations A typical user group could include the following: local planners and facility managers medical and emergency response personnel budget and legislative contacts technical personnel (such as GIS, Information Systems, digital data) risk mitigation and subject matter specialists (such as engineers, architects, earth scientists) Also, on Wednesday morning FEMA Region 6 (Texas,New Mexico, Oklahoma, Louisiana and Arkansas)will hold a meeting to organize a HAZUS User group for the region. Establishing a HAZUS User Group is an efficient way to coordinate risk management activities and involve all relevant community groups. We were asked to relate a “success story” as well as discuss an area where we need improved technology. I would share that FEMA’s experience with User Groups has been one of the successes. While we have provided only limited support for formation of some of these groups (now about 12 across the country) We’ve found User groups to be a very effective & cost-efficient way for our users to leverage resources in the community/state or region for using HAZUS and to support users being able to make the most effective use of the model and also to share information and data/ develop networks for sharing expertise, not only in using HAZUS but networks that support data and information sharing that builds risk communication among the different agencies and the private sector in the community to better manage risk. Bottom line is that users don’t have to “go it alone”. They have access to other users who may be more skilled, who can provide technical support and also serve as catalysts for ideas on how to reach decision-makers and get results. EX: Relate Region 9 experience with federal/state/local/ academic/engineering and private sector participants like Charles Schwab & Wells Fargo LOCAL NONPROFIT NONPROFIT Local Planners GOVERNMENT LABORATORIES Red Cross Technical Experts

Near Real-Time Wind Field Inputs As to an area where we need technology improvements or the ability to take advantage of advancing technology—I would comment that HAZUS use in post-disaster loss analysis will be enhanced with the ability to import “real or near-real time data about the event” For the hurricane model, this will most likely be in the form of wind swath or other storm data that is generated by NOAA. We have been working with NOAA Hurricane Research Division to determine what data could be made available on a regular basis to use in HAZUS. We have so far identified one very promising experimental data set. In the future, we hope to continue to work and coordinate with NOAA and NASA to improve the hurricane module, as well as the other models in HAZUS-MH. This is a time of exponential growth in information & data technologies. Opportunities such as this one to share experiences and educate ourselves as to what other agencies and organizations are developing is essential to improving government’s ability to support state and local disaster risk managers. At the federal level, we can support & facilitate, but it is at the local level where risk management takes place. Pre-Strike Damage Estimates Combined with NHC Predictions Post-Strike Loss Estimates Direct Economic Indirect Economic Casualties Shelter Requirements

HAZUS-MH at the NHC Hurricane Module Demonstrations Tuesday 8:30-5:00 Cabildo B (2nd floor) Mitigation Workshop: HAZUS-MH Hurricane Model Thursday 1:30-3:00 Cabildo A (2nd floor) Visit the HAZUS-MH exhibit booth Booth #23 in the French Market Exhibit Hall (3rd floor) How can we plan to minimize damage and loss of life to prevent natural hazards from becoming natural disasters? FEMA developed HAZUS-MH to help communities and regions plan for these events.