Líliam César de Castro Medeiros, Individual Based Model for Dengue Transmission: Interactions Between Humans, Mosquitoes and Serotypes Líliam César de Castro Medeiros, Antônio Miguel Vieira Monteiro, et al.

Dengue Fever It is a viral disease trasmitted in Brazil mainly by Aedes aegypti mosquito There are four distinct serotypes of the virus: DENV1, DENV2, DENV3 e DENV4

The clinical spectrum ranges since asymptomatic infections mild illness to the more severe forms of infection such as dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) dengue shock syndrome 3

In the World World Health Organization

The Aedes aegypti Urban habits They live inside and in the proximity of the houses Hematofagic activities Multiple bites Oviposition sites Eggs resistence Vertical transmission The mosquitoes live near the place where there are food, human blood and recipents to put eggs

Risk Factors

The Model Humans Mosquitoes A multi-level stochastic cellular automata

Cellular Automata Dynamic and self-reproducing sistems Discrete space and time The basic elements: cells The nth iteration Neumann JV, Burks AW (1966). The Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata, University of Illinois Press, Urbana

Cellular Automata Dynamic and self-reproducing sistems Discrete space and time The basic elements: cells The nth iteration Neumann JV, Burks AW (1966). The Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata, University of Illinois Press, Urbana

Cellular Automata Dynamic and self-reproducing sistems Discrete space and time The basic elements: cells The nth iteration Neumann JV, Burks AW (1966). The Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata, University of Illinois Press, Urbana

Dynamic and self-reproducing sistems Discrete space and time The basic elements: cells The nth iteration Neumann JV, Burks AW (1966). The Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata, University of Illinois Press, Urbana

Dynamic and self-reproducing sistems Discrete space and time The basic elements: cells The nth iteration Neumann JV, Burks AW (1966). The Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata, University of Illinois Press, Urbana

Dynamic and self-reproducing sistems Discrete space and time The basic elements: cells The nth iteration Neumann JV, Burks AW (1966). The Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata, University of Illinois Press, Urbana

Dynamic and self-reproducing sistems Discrete space and time The basic elements: cells The nth iteration Neumann JV, Burks AW (1966). The Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata, University of Illinois Press, Urbana

Each cell contains: A finite set of predeterminated states A set of transition rules (to change the states) which depend on the cell’s neighborhood The nth iteration Neumann JV, Burks AW (1966). The Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata, University of Illinois Press, Urbana

The Model Humans Mosquitoes

The Model Humans Mosquitoes

Several Serotypes 1st serotype 2nd serotype 3rd serotype 4th serotype TCI 1st serotype 2nd serotype 3rd serotype 4th serotype

Model Considerations Human mobility Asymptomatic people Human renewal House infestation Vector density per household

Simulation in Human Lattice Inicialmente: 10.000 inhabitants 70% of house infestation rate 0 a 2 mosq/human General Mobility: 50% Percentual of public locations: 3% Mobility to community centers: 90%

Current work Macroscale Occupied area Population density Geography Informations about vector Water supply Garbage collection Economic variables Climatic data

TerraME is a programming environment for spatial dynamical modelling TerraME is a programming environment for spatial dynamical modelling. It supports cellular automata, agent-based models, and network models running in 2D cell spaces. www.terrame.org

Agents are computational systems placed in some environment. (Jennings et al., 98) They can represent Individuals Households Institutions Popular instrumental to represent social systems, complex urban systems and structured epidemiological processes Slide adapted from Pedro Ribeiro de Andrade, INPE 24

Spatial neighbourhood between cells Cell→cell Spatial neighbourhood between cells Slide from Pedro Ribeiro de Andrade, INPE (Aguiar et al., 2003) 25

Study Area: Caraguatatuba Epidemics in: 2002, 2004, 2007 and 2010 More than 3,500 reported cases in 2010

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