Simulator for Infectious Diseases

Introduction Stochastic simulator for epidemic spread Develops contacts between census blocks Simulation based on population, distance between census blocks, infection parameters.

Overview Census block level Infectious contacts generated for an age group in a census block. Disease parameters are user defined. Variable number of age groups. JAVA / postgresql

Simulator Design Census Block Grid Contacts Disease Age-Groups Census Data Reader

Census Block Coordinates Population Age Groups S, R E, I on each day

Grid No of Census Blocks (m*n) Details of Census Blocks Disease Census Information for each block

Disease Infectious Period Exposed Period Infectivity

Age Groups S, E, I , R Contact Rate for the age group Affinity Mobility

Contacts In each block, infectious contacts generated for each age group. Contacts can be intra-block or inter-block. Inter-block contacts made with external blocks, using interaction coefficient Each blocks statistics updated at the end of time unit

Intra-block Contacts Fraction of Intra-block contacts Directly proportional to affinity Inversely proportional to mobility frac = a*popBlock/((a-1)*popBlock + popTot); where, a = affinity / mobility

Infectious Contacts Infectious Contacts generated by each age group function of Group's contact rate Infectious population in that age group Proportion of susceptibles in the block Infectivity of the epidemic infectiousIntraContacts = fracIntraBlock*Infectious*ageContactRate*Diseas eInfectivity)*(susceptibles/population)

Choosing Blocks to contact... Block to be contacted chosen randomly. No. of contacts with that block depends on interaction coefficient InteractionCoeff = Pop_this_block*pop_contacted_block/distance_bet_ blocks Avg_IC for the contacted block

Census Data Census block data read from census database Demographics like age are read block by block. Each block is assigned coordinates in the grid. Postgresql used to query database.

Work to be done... Demographic currently used – age Socio-economic status, gender, race etc. to be incorporated into the simulator Visualization