The Changing Face of Queensland – what does this mean for councils? September 2016

Jim Myhill .id consulting

informed decisions .id is a company of demographers, housing analysts, forecasters and Census data experts who have developed demographic information products specifically for the Australian Local Government market. .id stands for “informed decisions” and our work is to provide decision makers within government and the community with readily accessible, easy to use information about the people living in their communities of interest. .id’s products give Councils the evidence base to plan housing policy and service delivery, attract investment and promote their region, support funding submissions and compete for resources, advocate for the community and work collaboratively.

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Today’s presentation What’s driving population growth? - National Trends Migration and age structure throughout Queensland The impact on council services Emerging “growth markets”

National Growth Trends National trends image

The population clock is a projection is based on the estimated resident population at 30 June 2015 and assumes growth since then of:

As at 12:00pm (Canberra time) According to the ABS Population Clock… On 3 August, 2016 the resident population of Australia was projected to be: 24,147,657 As at 12:00pm (Canberra time)

National population and dwelling growth

Components of population growth Births Deaths = Natural increase

Components of population growth Net Migration Interstate Overseas

Migration has taken over natural growth

Net Overseas Migration, 1976 - 2015

The proportion of Australians who were born overseas has hit its highest point in over 120 years 43.4% of Australians were born overseas or have a parent born overseas

Age Structure of Recent Arrivals. 2006 - 2011

Fertility/Birth rate increase

National fertility rate by age of mother, 1975 - 2011 Source: ABS, Births, Australia, 2011 (3301.0)

Qld masterminds

QLD ERP, 2005-2015

QLD ERP growth, 2004-2014 growth slowing

State comparison

Qld Interstate migration-1972-2015, slowing

Net Interstate migration, 1976-2011

A shift in internal migration Source: Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2014-15 (cat. no. 3101.0)

A Shift in the distribution of Population Growth Change 2005-06 Significant Urban Areas % no. 1 Melbourne 1.7% 60551 2 Brisbane 2.2% 39640 3 Sydney 0.9% 36601 4 Perth 1.9% 29077 5 Gold Coast - Tweed Heads 2.9% 14290 6 Adelaide 1.0% 11663 7 Not in any Significant Urban Area (Qld) 1.4% 9749 8 Sunshine Coast 2.6% 6275 9 Canberra - Queanbeyan 1.2% 4333 10 Townsville 2.8% 3995 Source: Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2014-15 (cat. no. 3218.0)

A Shift in the distribution of Population Growth Change 2014r-15p Significant Urban Areas % no. 1 Melbourne 2.0 86796 2 Sydney 1.7 77565 3 Brisbane 1.5 33702 4 Perth 1.4 26163 5 Adelaide 0.9 11970 6 Gold Coast - Tweed Heads 1.8 10798 7 Not in any Significant Urban Area (NSW) 0.8 8470 8 Sunshine Coast 1.6 4864 9 Newcastle - Maitland 3964 10 Wollongong 1.2 3333 Source: Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2014-15 (cat. no. 3218.0)

Net overseas migration

Overseas migration, 1972-2015

Net Overseas migration share, %

Drivers of QLD growth

Qld dips below Australia growth rate

But growth occurs across the board in QLD

But growth occurs across the board in QLD

So what does all this look like for councils that provide community services?

Overseas migration

Birthplace

Greater Brisbane

Regional QLD

Cairns North

Ageing – but also…a mini baby boom Ageing image...and baby?

Ageing Qld median age in 1994 was 32.4 years – in 2012 it was 36.6. By 2061 it will be 39.9 to 43.7

Population by five year age group Queensland, 1976

Population by five year age group Queensland, 1976-1986

Population by five year age groups Queensland, 1976-1996

Population by five year age groups Queensland, 1976-2006

Population by five year age groups Queensland, 1976-2011

Age trends - Queensland

Age trends - Queensland

Age trends - SE Queensland

Age trends - SE Queensland

Age trends - Regional Queensland

Age trends - Regional Queensland

Family trends – increase in lone person HH in regional Qld

Three growth markets 2011-2031 forecast

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Mining – employment shift to coal gas – Surat Basin

Affordable housing

Affordable housing

Lower $ improves tourism competitiveness

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