Ron Lesthaeghe, Albert Esteve, Antonio Lopez-Gay. The ethics revolution and the Latin American cohabitation boom, 1970-2010 Ron Lesthaeghe, Albert Esteve, Antonio Lopez-Gay. Centre d’Estudis Demografics , Univ. Autonoma Barcelona

“Not us, we’re different” GENERAL CONTEXT “Not us, we’re different” Spread of unmarried cohabitation from Northern to Western Europe, to North America and Australia-New Zealand, then to Southern and Eastern Europe. Now also in Japan and Taïwan (S. Korea, PR China ?) How about Latin America, given diversity with respect to regional pre-existing cohabitation traditions ? Is this a reaction to the economic and financial crises of the 1980-90s or is there much more ?

Pre-existing traditions => High degree of diversity. Most native populations : polygamy, polyandry, women & wife exchange, “bride price/ service”, marriage a gradual process, no elaborate rites. But marriage celebrations in populations stemming from large precolumbian states (Mexico, Andean ridge). Black populations : gender separation, visiting unions and high cohabitation rates. European white settlers & even clergy : concubines Less social control & influence Christianity in frontier & remote areas. Weaker states and/or tolerant legislation ( esp. Portuguese). BUT ! factors => European marriage Late 19th & 20th Century European immigration (Italian, Spanish, German). Marriages dominant in Southern Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, Chile Urban bourgeoisie, educated strata The model of success, the reference point. Evangelical christianity

Inflation rates. 30 % peak in Chile, Colombia. 130 Mexico Brazil, Argentina. 7000-11000% peak in Peru, Bolivia. 1985 1990 1990 1985

INFLATION PEAKS

CHILE ARGENTINA BRAZIL URUGUAY PERCENTAGES WOMEN 25-29 C0HABITING AMONG PARTNERED WOMEN, BY EDUCATION AND CENSUS DATE

COLOMBIA ECUADOR PERU VENEZUELA

PANAMA MEXICO Dominican Republic . Costa Rica

EDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENT Women 25-29 Figure 4. Boxplot of the regional diversity of the percent of women 25-29 with primary education or more, by country and for the two census rounds of 1970 and 2000. EDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENT Women 25-29 Figure 5. Boxplot of the regional diversity of the percentage of women aged 25-29 with secondary education or more by country and for the census rounds of 1970 and 2000.

“Ready, Willing, and Able” Moral / ethical acceptability Economic/material Advantage; Response to crisis (expected: marriages postponed and post-crisis marriage boom) Legal framework, Legal adaptations THE ETHICS REVOLUTION Individual freedom of choice with respect to divorce, euthanasia, sexual orientation, abortion, even suicide. TOP DOWN DIFFUSION

Strength of the stigmatization of divorce, 1990-2008 Data source: World Values Studies

De-stigmatization of homosexuality

Strength of the stigmatization of suicide by education and period

Strength of the stigmatization of abortion, 1990-2008

Strength of the stigmatization of euthanasia, 1990-2007

Strength of the sigmatization of homosexuality by education and period Data source: World Values Surveys

Conclusions 1. Rising cohabitation trend already under way prior to the economic crisis of 1980s, no clear postponement of marriages as a result of crisis, and no post-crisis marriage boom. 2. Uninterrupted rising trend of cohabitation in ALL countries & areas and in ALL social strata, with catching up among the higher education populations. Strong de-stigmatization of premarital cohabitation. Trend still continuing. 3. Concomitant de-stigmatization of divorce, abortion, homosexuality, euthanasia and even suicide. 4. Latin American cohabitation boom is a demographic manifestation of the much wider ethics revolution and cultural change. 5. To be expected: Countries that do not start the ethics revolution will lag behind with respect to the “non-conformist” indicators of the SDT (e.g. cohabitation, non-marital fertility, LAT relationships ), but not necessarily with respect to the sub-replacement fertility aspect or the postponement aspect.

The cohabitation boom among the young elites of national administrative units, 1970s to 2000 50% 10% Rise in percentages cohabiting among all women 25-29 in a union with Secondary education or more, 1970s to 2000 (Peru:1993-2007)