On the Sources of Ordinary Science Intelligence and Ignorance www.culturalcognition.net On the Sources of Ordinary Science Intelligence and Ignorance Dan M. Kahan Yale University & many x 103 others

The science communication problem

The science communication problem r = - 0.65, p < 0.01

The science communication problem r = - 0.65, p < 0.01

HPV controversy; Gollust et al. studies

Cultural Cognition Worldviews Hierarchy Individualism Communitarianism Egalitarianism

Cultural Cognition Worldviews Hierarchy Hierarchy-individualism Hierarchy-communitarianism Individualism Communitarianism Egalitarian-individualism Egalitarian-individualism Egalitarianism

Marijuana legalization Marijuana legalization Cultural Cognition Worldviews Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Hierarchy climate change nuclear power air & water pollution guns/gun control Marijuana legalization Abortion procedure Anti-terrorism cats/varmints Hierarchy-individualism Hierarchy-communitarianism Individualism Communitarianism Marijuana legalization Abortion procedure Anti-terrorism cats/varmints climate change nuclear power air & water pollution guns/gun control Egalitarian-individualism Egalitarian-individualism Egalitarianism

Pro- & con- arguments

Culturally identifiable “public health experts” Hierarchy Individualism Communitarianism Egalitarianism

Expert_x_argument

Expert_x_argument congruence index

“The HPV vaccine is safe for use among young girls.” .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 probability agreeing -2 -1 2 expert_x_argument culturally predisposed to agree 2% ± 12% 22% ± 10% 28% ± 12% culturally predisposed to disagree min conflict max conflict N = 976. Monte carlo simulation based on logistic regression model.

HPV controversy; polluted science communication environment

Karl Popper science communication anomalies . . . “Mature popper” Bernie Sanders . . . “Young popper” Arthur Lupia???????