Report by the President of the Commission for Atmospheric Sciences CAS-17/INF. 2.1 Øystein Hov

Opportunities: WMO CAS Societal challenges a 10y vision High Impact Weather and its socio-economic effects in the context of global change Water: Modelling and predicting the water cycle for improved DRR and resource management Integrated GHG Information System: Serving society and supporting policy Aerosols: Impacts on air quality, weather and climate Urbanization: Research and services for megacities and large urban complexes Evolving Technologies: Their impact on science and its use Seamless across time and space scales, earth system components WMO; Research

CAS is home to Global Atmosphere Watch World Weather Research Programme Working Group on Numerical Experimentation, joint with WCRP «Science for service» GAW Implementation Plan WWRP Implementation Plan Just to remind the audience of the key research programmes under CAS (activities defined in their implementation plans) and the key role of WGNE in linking CAS and WCRP for modelling activities. No need for details about GAW and WWRP; they come later.

Seamless prediction WMO Google: seamless prediction WMO https://www.wmo.int/media/content/seamless-prediction- minutes-months 4 World Weather Research Programme 2

CAS – WMO secretariat support The research department is constructive, competent, efficient, team-oriented, supportive and hard working in support of research in WMO Facilitating the voluntary contributions to CAS mission Big thanks to Deon Terblanche and his team Thanks in particular to Germany and the Republic of Korea for providing extra resources to the secretariat

The main mission is to improve models

WGNE 2013-2017 Interactive aerosols are important in climate model simulations. WGNE aerosols project has investigated the role of aerosols in shorter range weather forecasting. WGNE’s mandate includes the identification of systematic errors amongst weather and climate models. The fifth WGNE Systematic Error workshop Montreal, Canada, in 2017 - the weather and climate communities met to address common problems. WGNE routinely evaluates and verifies models. The Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR) (jointly between WWRP and WGNE) does research on verification methods.

WMO Constituent Body Reform CAS has emphasized that the future success of the weather enterprise relies on research and the value chain thinking. The research component needs to be kept as a clearly visible and consolidated entity in WMO, not fragmented, to motivate and foster voluntary contributions from the whole research community (weather-water-ocean-climate-environment-ES). CAS and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) draw in the capabilities of a much larger community than National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). WWRP has membership of non-NMHS experts in the working groups and project steering groups of about 50%; for GAW is more than 60%; in WCRP above 80%. The success of all three Programmes has relied on significant research funding being obtained from national and international funding agencies.

Constituent Body Reform (CBR) cont CBR in the hands of the Executive Council Working Group on WMO Strategic and Operational Planning, EC and Cg CAS has represented the technical commissions and has proposed that research does not need an intergovernmental body It is now accepted by EC and the secretariat that to advance research and innovation in the Earth System Framework, WMO needs a scientific advisory council (SAC) of a few leading scientists from universities, independent research institutes, governmental research institutes, including NMHSs, and industry, to advise the Secretary‑General, the WMO Executive Management, Executive Council and Congress. Co-design. A research implementation group (RIG) is needed with a composition, mandate and terms of reference based on the CAS Management Group of today. But more inclusive, with internationally recognized scientists, regional representatives and chairs of GAW, WWRP, WGNE and WCRP, with research bodies beyond the NMHSs, and of the main international funding agencies.

Seamless Data-processing and Forecasting System (DPFS) DPFS is a core support of the operational forecasting services of NMHSs. DPFS components: WMO Information System (WIS), WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS, previously the GTS), GOS CAS and the Commission for Basic Systems (CBS), co-chair the development of a new generation of seamless DPFS-Earth System model Important opportunity for CAS to strengthen links in the value chains that provide services, and for scientists and operations-oriented personnel to work in teams in an interactive manner, towards better services. Demands change in the role of science (discovery-translation-application continuum) The role of CAS in DPFS mandated by Decision 50 (EC-69) (WMO-No. 1196) An integrated Research and Development Approach presents key principles to fill the gap between research and operations. The writing team for seamless GDPFS is co-chaired by Sarah Jones and Bernard Strauss Seamless across Earth System components, seamless across commissions, seamless across the WMO Secretariat

CAS has contributed to the WCRP review WCRP and WWRP/GAW have much in common, both in the science and in their applications. Many aspects of climate science have moved from discovery stage to maturity, go to applications and user-informed services. WCRP should adopt “Science for Service” and support the Global Framework for Climate Services with relevant, timely and high-quality products for adaptation. For mitigation, the Integrated Global Greenhouse Gas Information System (IG3IS) is an essential component. Developed under GAW with stakeholder support. The IG3IS implementation plan will be ready by EC-70. A governance structure is in place. IG3IS office funded. EC-69 decided that the GAW Urban Research Meteorology and Environment Programme will lead the development of a guide for integrated urban services, with CBS and in consultation with other technical commissions. WMO would benefit from a tight coupling of WWRP, GAW and WCRP, and use eg. WGNE, to address the research needs in hydrology and oceanography, in support of seamless Earth system prediction and DPFS. Continuum discovery-translation-application

CAS governance The terms are rotated for members of steering committees, working groups, science advisory committees and expert teams Rules in the decisions of CAS-16 (Annex 1 to Resolution 2 (CAS-16) – Working structure of the Commission for Atmospheric Sciences). The procedures outlined for exemptions have been followed. The president has consulted with members of the CAS MG to ensure an optimal balance between new members and maintaining continuity in the work, while also addressing the need to include more women in the work of the Commission.

Experts, young scientists, gender Almost 300 experts from Members in the structures of CAS essential for progress 77% men (see CAS-17, INF 3.4). Member contributions to the various research trust funds are acknowledged and highly valued. The effort to attract young scientists has intensified. The Young Earth System Scientists (YESS) community important - supported by Germany and Argentina (launched in 2010). The World Weather Open Science Conference in 2014 and the GAW 2017 Symposium important for recruiting early-career scientists into the work of CAS.

The Law of the AtmosphereUN International Law Commission (ILC) ILC established in 1947 by UN General Assembly 34 members, elected by the GA, in their “individual capacity” Work of the ILC: Codification and Progressive Development of International Law ILS’s Draft Articles Geneva Conv. on the Law of the Sea; Vienna Conv. on Diplomatic and Consular Relations; Vienna Conv. on the Law of Treaties, etc. Shinya Murase secretary Professor Emeritus, Sophia University, Tokyo Visiting Prof. , China Youth Univ. of Political Studies, Beijing Member of the UN International Law Commission Member of the Permanent Court of Arbitration

Rationale of the Topic Protection of the Atmosphere Need for a holistic, integrative approach to transboundary atmospheric pollution and global atmospheric degradation such as climate change: “One Atmosphere” The president of CAS has given three talks to the ILC-sessions in Geneva (2015, 2016, 2017) A number of relevant conventions, notwithstanding, there are gaps that need to be filled A comparable instrument modeled after UN Conv. on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) Part XII Ambition The biggest achievement in international lawmaking in the 20th century: UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. The biggest lawmaking exercise in the 21st century will be the Law of the Atmosphere!

Thank you for your attention

Science for service – Quality, relevance and impact User interactions force exploration of «What works»: economic and social innovation – marine, atmosphere, water, climate, environment Postprocessing: General public Energy sector Floods Air quality Ecosystems Transport sector (air, shipping, road, rail) Offshore Marine resources waves Storm surges Agriculture and food Tourism Emergency preparedness HiW Research topics Observations Process description Dynamics Physics, snow, ice, Chemistry Predictability Earth System Model formulation Dataassi-milation Verification EPS Backend (THREDDS) Frontend Human interface Observations, Emisson fluxes, Other boundary conditions Users Core service (R&D driven production) Storage Research funding User involvement Research funding and funding of operationality Research funding User involvement Applied research funding, user involvement All specialised users Network projects Thematic orientation Higher education and research Unidata's Thematic Real-time Environmental Distributed Data Services (THREDDS) R&D, IT geoscience focus, user competence, communication skills, data policy Distributed metadata governed data management NRT-flow and storage