WRF-based Hurricane Simulation in the Environmental Data Cube Support System John Holdzkom, Steve Lowe Thomas Nehrkorn, John Galantowicz George Modica, John Henderson, Mark Leidner Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. Mark Horn AgileSRC for AER, Inc. Usual introduction.

Outline EDCSS Overview Definition of Problem Details of Approach WRF Modeling Capability Hurricane Simulation EDCSS Production and Samples Summary / Questions 2

EDCSS Program Environmental Data Cube Support System U.S. DoD initiative to ensure consistent and coupled environment representations (data, products, effects) available to DoD Modeling and Simulation exercises A “consumer oriented” approach, building products to specifications of a wide variety of participants Existing capabilities are the result of DoD investment All technology is US DoD owned and delivered open-source for maximum reuse 3

EDCSS Concept Definition Environmental Data Cube Support System Build an Integrated Environment Representation … 2. Produce a full suite of support products … 3. Distribute during event execution I.E.R. National Providers of … Data, Models, Effects, Expertise we can build a scenario based on the impacts the senior leaders and exercise using weather as a stimulant User Domain Simulation Domain Control Domain 4 4 4

Consumers and Products Gridded data (binary, CSV) Pre-computed effects (hypercube) Weather charts Satellite imagery (IR/VIS/WV) KML overlays Forecast data and messages Observations Satellite imagery Simulation Domain Control Domain User Domain

EDCSS Support – Pacific Command PACOM-09 Support PACOM Senior METOC officer specified desired scenario Typhoon passage through exercise area Followed by benign conditions Produced full suite of EDCSS products Over 9,000 total products Satellite, Radar, METAR/TAF, Grib forecasts, CSV, “TV”-style graphics Daily weather briefing to training audience by PACOM Senior METOC Officer Environment played in Navy’s JSAF simulation 6

Event Support Site METAR LLHA 170000Z 27004KT 10SM FEW016 21/20 Q0997 RMK SLP053 LAT328N LON0350E METAR LLJR 170000Z 29007G19KT 10SM FEW016 17/17 Q0946 RMK SLP075 LAT319N LON0352E METAR LTAF 170000Z 08004KT 10SM SCT015 22/21 Q0999 RMK SLP021 LAT370N LON0353E Event support site is auto-generated by EDC Production. Provides html pages for browsing and/or downloading products. Hosted on EDC Distributor, which also offers these same products via web services. 7

Integrated Environment Representation Integrated Environment Representation is the base from which all products are generated Source options: Historical archives (eg, NCEP/NCAR 50-year reanalysis) Resolution too coarse Useful for finding desired conditions Operational forecasts and products (eg, “live”) No control of scenario on exercise dates Modeled historical scenarios Based on reality Provides a high-fidelity resource Scenario aligned with exercise objectives

Environment Representation Production Sequence Project Conditions, Place/Time, Products 4. Custom Product Generation Data Effects Text Imagery 5. Product Distribution & Integration Integrated Environment Representation (DATA) Conditions, Place/Time, Data 1. Search historical archives 2. Access / Build Environment Representation 3. Value-Add to meet Customer Requirements ? COSINE Infrastructure Utilities Algorithms Run model to generate high-fidelity representation O(5 km , 20 min) Interpolation Transformation Terminology Units Fill Values Derived Content Vertical Extent Regional Archives (Re-use) Global Low-Fidelity Archives 9 9

WRF Modeling Capability AER maintains a WRF modeling capability for multiple government and commercial projects Model deployed on 40-node IBM cluster Integrated with EDCSS Model initialization based on NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Single run for a specified time period, or Repeated, overlapping runs to limit error growth Data assimilation to utilize synthetic observations to help “steer” scenario towards customer requirement 10

EDC-WRF Interface WRF control information from EDCSS Includes a limited amount of required information, e.g. geographic area of interest horizontal resolution time period Limited set of choices for WRF configuration Large number of possible options reduced to a smaller menu of fixed WRF setups Prevents choice of inconsistent/invalid options by “naïve” users Simplifies interface design Use the user-defined info from EDCSS to provide basic inputs to model; use our expertise to determine how best to use the EDCSS info Interface is essentially: what do you want to run (where, for how long, resolution); we build the ‘how do you run’ We anticipate the user not having multiple years of experience in running mesoscale models; we will think for the users Because of endless number of requested scenarios, only a limited number of preselected configurations are supported. Because of the modular and flexible design, adding others is not difficult 11 11

Hurricane bogusing Hurricane bogusing using readily available software components: WRF V2.2: observation preprocessor, 3dvar analysis, WPS preprocessor, WRF 24km horizontal resolution, 3dvar assimilation of bogus surface pressure observations derived from best track data Typhoon Zeb (Oct 1998) 12

Typhoon Zeb Simulation Red = best track Green = modeled track 13

EDCSS Production Fog/Haze Cloud Layers BlowingSand Wind Gust . . . . EDCSS Production Site Satellite Imagery Data Hypercube WRF resource Value-adding derivations Effects Product Generation Imagery Graphics (KML) Messages METAR/TAF System Impacts Fog/Haze Cloud Layers BlowingSand Wind Gust . . . . 14

EDCSS Products 15

EDCSS Product Portfolio Satellite/Radar (Google Earth) Satellite Probability of Detection Radar 16

EDCSS Product Portfolio (Cont) CSV 01011001010 10011001010 01110100100 FTUS80 KWBC 150900 EQBA TAF 1509/1615 01006KT 9999 SKC QNH2963INS BECMG 1513/1515 05007KT 9999 SKC QNH2963INS BECMG 1601/1603 05007KT 9999 SKC QNH2972INS BECMG 1613/1615 02005KT 9999 SKC QNH2961INS T35/1609Z T17/1521Z= GRIB TAF METAR EQBA 150000Z 05007G18KT 10SM CLR 17/12 Q0944 RMK SLP112 METAR EQBF 150000Z 09014KT 10SM CLR 00/M05 Q0799 RMK SLP189 METAR EQBI 150000Z 11004KT 10SM CLR 09/05 Q0736 RMK SLP113 METAR 17

EDCSS Product Portfolio (Cont) Soil moisture content Systems impact (stop light chart) Ocean wave dir/height “TV” weather graphics 18

Summary EDCSS goal is to provide consistent environmental data, products, and effects for all participants in modeling and simulation exercises All products derived from an Integrated Environment Representation Guarantees consistency between all products Modeling historical scenarios provides needed fidelity and control Products built to consumer requirements 19

Thanks ! This work was performed as part of the EDCSS program, sponsored by Air Force Weather and the DoD Modeling and Simulation Coordination Office (MSCO). John.Holdzkom@aer.com Atmospheric & Environmental Research, Inc. 1510 Breezeport Way, Suite 600 Suffolk, VA 23435 https://ine.aer.com for more info. 20