B.V. Jackson H.-S. Yu, P.P. Hick, A. Buffington, M. Tokumaru

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Presentation transcript:

B.V. Jackson H.-S. Yu, P.P. Hick, A. Buffington, M. Tokumaru Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences, University of California at San Diego, LaJolla, CA, USA H.-S. Yu, P.P. Hick, A. Buffington, Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences, University of California at San Diego, LaJolla, CA, USA M. Tokumaru Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research (ISEE), Nagoya University, Nagoya 464-8601, Japan A. Gonzalez-Espararza, J. Mejia-Ambriz, O. Chang George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, and NASA-Goddard Spaceflight Center, USA D. Odstrcil George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, and NASA-Goddard Spaceflight Center, USA S. Hong, J. Kim Korean Space Weather Center, National Radio Research Agency, 198-6, Jeju, 695-922 South Korea Where necessary I will add comments B. Lee, J. Yi, J. Yun SELab, 8, Nonhyeon-ro 150-gil, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, South Korea M.M Bisi RAL Space, Science & Technology Facilities Council, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Harwell Oxford, Didcot, Oxfordshire, OX11 0QX, England (UK) Masayoshi http://ips.ucsd.edu/

Introduction: IPS Space Weather Predictions IPS Tomographic Analyses: Used primarily with ISEE IPS observations, Other data sets can fill in, or be primary, depending on amount and quality. WIPSS (World InterPlanetary Scintillation Systems) Analysis: Combined analysis from multiple IPS data sets, 3D-MHD forward modeling. Magnetic field component forward-modeling – Br, Bt: Part of the model package developed at UCSD. Interesting Developments: GSM Bx, By, Bz My talk will proceed this way

Today’s Forecast Analysis Where necessary I will add comments Masayoshi

Today’s Forecast Analysis Where necessary I will add comments Masayoshi

IPS Heliospheric Analyses ISEE (STELab) DATA IPS Heliospheric Analyses ISEE (STELab) Density inhomogenieties in the solar wind on the order of 150 km size from point radio sources produce an intensity pattern variation on the ground that travels away from the Sun with the solar wind speed. This pattern, measured and correlated between different radio sites in Japan allows a determination of the solar wind speed by translating this value to the line of sight perpendicular. The fuzz observed correlates from one radio site to another. IPS line-of-sight response ISEE IPS array systems

UCSD IPS Predictions

IPS line-of-sight response Sample outward motion over time Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339-360. Heliospheric C.A.T. analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3D reconstruction. ISEE IPS This shows how the UCSD IPS time-dependent Computer Assisted Tomography (C.A.T.) analysis works. The 327 MHz IPS line of sight weighting provides a weight for each source observation on a spherical source surface below each line. As material moves outward from the Sun, it follows a very specific modeled path and expansion that is weighted differently at different times. The full mathematical treatment can be found in Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339-360. Sample outward motion over time

Space Weather Predictions using IPS Heliospheric C.A.T. analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3D reconstruction.

IPS line-of-sight response Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339-360. Heliospheric C.A.T. analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3D reconstruction. ISEE IPS This shows the line of sight traces on a Carrington map at the source surface (lower right). The line of sight weighting provides a weight for each source observation on the source surface. The full mathematical treatment can be found in Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339-360. 14 July 2000 13 July 2000

UCSD Kinematic IPS Model IPS Prediction (KSWC) http://www.spaceweather.go.kr/models/ips UCSD Kinematic IPS Model

IPS Prediction (KSWC) IPS-Driven ENLIL http://www.spaceweather.go.kr/models/ips IPS-Driven ENLIL

More Details Magnetic Field

CSSS model Source surface Br field component sample (Zhao, X. P. and Hoeksema, J. T., 1995, J. Geophys. Res., 100 (A1), 19.) CSSS model Dunn et al., 2005, Solar Physics 227: 339–353. Source surface Br field component sample Inner region: the CSSS model calculates the magnetic field using photospheric measurements and a horizontal current model. 2. Middle region: the CSSS model opens the field lines. In the outer region. 3. Outer region: the UCSD tomography convects the magnetic field along velocity flow lines.

Current UCSD IPS Br, Bt predictions

But what is really wanted is Bz

I have often wondered where the Bz in-situ field comes from I have often wondered where the Bz in-situ field comes from. The Parker spiral analysis does not indicate how a normal field (north-south) can occur, and yet the field exists and is ever-present in the heliosphere.

Extrapolated Bn closed field component for CR 2056 (Jackson, B.V., et al., 2015, ApJL, 803:L1. 1- 5, doi:10.1088/2041-8205/803/1/L1.) CSSS model Closed field Extrapolated Bn closed field component for CR 2056 Extrapolated Bt field component for CR 2056 Extrapolated Br field component for CR 2056 About 1/50th of the static flux r-1.34 fall-off

WIPSS Organization Name 2) All participants agreed to share their data and host websites to present their data in real time as soon as it becomes available. 3) At this time a new member joined the group of organizations that provide access to their IPS data set in real time from the world’s largest (70,000 m2) radio array currently operating; the 110 Mhz system at Pushchino, Russia. Organization Name WIPSS (Worldwide InterPlanetary Scintillation Stations)

(as of the Recent Morelia Remote Sensing Workshop, 20-24 October 2015) Standard Data Format (as of the Recent Morelia Remote Sensing Workshop, 20-24 October 2015)

As: ftp://ftp.stelab.nagoya-u.ac.jp/pub/vlist/STEL2015.dat Standard IPS Format Ascii – Fixed Format As: ftp://ftp.stelab.nagoya-u.ac.jp/pub/vlist/STEL2015.dat Date MidObsUT Dur. Site Freq BW Source Size RA-J2000 Dec-J2000 Limb Dist. 20150912 03:57:02 2.8 STEL 327 10 3C273 -999 12 29 06 +02 03 12 E 68.70 Lat. PA Elong Vel. V-err g-value g-err Method Vel. V-err g-value g-err Method 16.9 74.5 17.6 560 3 1.002 0.515 3-St. CC -999 -999 0.919 0.301 1-St. PS Date MidObsUT Dur. Site Freq BW Source Size RA-J2000 Dec-J2000 Limb Dist. Lat. PA Elong Vel. V-err g-value g-err Method Vel. V-err g-value g-err Method 20150912 03:57:02 2.8 STEL 327 10 3C273 -999 12 29 06 +02 03 12 E 68.70 16.9 74.5 17.6 560 3 1.002 0.515 3-St. CC -999 -999 0.919 0.301 1-St. PS New item Used by UCSD tomo. G-value, error

View from MEXART, Mexico Ecliptic Plane Projection “Image” of the Sky View from ISEE, Japan View from MEXART, Mexico Ecliptic Plane Projection

(Carrington Rotation 2156.7) MEXART Ecliptic Cut 11/03/2014 03 UT MEXART Analysis (72 L.O.S.) (Carrington Rotation 2156.7) MEXART Time Series 11/02 – 11/29 2014 MEXART Ecliptic Cut 11/03/2014 03 UT correlation 0.434 A Hammer-Aitoff display showing the STELab source locations. The source value is indicated relative to the model background value.

Combined ISEE (~1200 L. O. S. ), and MEXART (72 L. O. S Combined ISEE (~1200 L.O.S.), and MEXART (72 L.O.S.) Analysis (Carrington Rotation 2156.7) Combined Time Series 11/02 – 11/29 2014 MEXART Ecliptic Cut 11/03/2014 03 UT MEXART Ecliptic Cut 11/03/2014 03 UT ISEE-MEXART Ecliptic Cut 11/03/2014 03 UT correlation 0.965 A Hammer-Aitoff display showing the STELab source locations. The source value is indicated relative to the model background value.

Summary: IPS Space Weather Predictions WIPSS: Incorporation of other systems into the tomographic analysis is now available, and helps other IPS sites standardize and edit their own data sets. The term has caught on and, and hopefully will provide a uniform front for IPS space weather work. Interesting Developments: The IPS analysis is a really-great test-bed for many different types of space weather forecasting that include: 1) 3D-MHD predictions. 2) Bz analysis. M Potentaily talk will proceed this way