Paving a Gravel Road Case Study

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Presentation transcript:

Paving a Gravel Road Case Study Christopher R. Bennett Director - Data Collection Ltd. The World Bank Paving a Gravel Road Case Study

The Scenario Without Project Case - Routine maintenance - Gradings every 180 days - Regravelling when gravel < 50 mm With Project Case - Pave the road in 2000 and after paving - Routine maintenance - Pothole patching - Resealing when damaged area > 20 % Gravel Road with 200 AADT

Road Deterioration and Timing of Works Replace Gravel at 50 mm Paving Reseal at 20% damaged area

Alternatives and Standards Maintenance Standard Alternative 1 with 1 Standard Maintenance Standard Alternative 2 with 2 Standards Improvement Standard

Comparison of Alternatives

Net Present Value (NPV) Case without Generated Traffic Paving a Gravel Road Case Study

Total Society Costs

Internal Rate of Return (IRR) NPV IRR Paving a Gravel Road Case Study

Distribution of Net Benefits

Project Impact

Generated Traffic Benefits

Transport Demand Elasticity

Generated Traffic Benefits Example

Optimal Grading Frequency (Efficiency Frontier Graph)

Optimal Grading Frequency (Average Roughness Graph)

Optimal Paving Timing (Efficiency Frontier Graph)

Unpaved Network Maintenance Funding Second State Highway Management Project Brazil, 1994 No of Gradings per Year Average Roughness Net Present Value Economic Costs/Year/km ($) Financial Costs/Year/km ($) Total Financial Costs/Year (M$); 1,838km

Selection and Justification of Project Components Second State Highway Management Project Brazil, 1994 New length (km) Initial Traffic (ADT) Initial Roughness (IRI) ERR (%) NPV (M US$) Financial Project Cost (M US$) Financial project Cost/km (US$/km) Total State ERR, Length, and Financial Project Cost

Accident Rates Number per 100 million vehicle-km - South Africa: Economic Warrants for Surfacing Roads, 1989, SABITA and CSIR - Canada : The Economic Appraisal of Highway Investment “Guidebook”, 1992, Ministry of Transportation

Accident Rates Number per 100 million vehicle-km

Accident Rates Assumptions Different Proportion Same Proportion

Accidents and NMT Benefits Base With With Accidents Accidents & NMT NPV 4.2 5.1 6.5 IRR 18.9% 20.2 % 22.2% NMT => 10 Bicycles ($75 purchase cost) 5 Rickshaws ($130 purchase cost) 5 Animal Carts ($180 purchase cost)