Autonomous/Connected Vehicle – Joint Lee/Collier MPO October 20, 2017

Levels of Autonomous Vehicles

Automated Vehicle – Umbrella which includes both autonomous and connected vehicle technologies Autonomous Vehicle – Use radar, cameras and computing abilities to perceive surroundings; activate steering, braking and acceleration without operator impact Connected Vehicle – Employ vehicle to vehicle and vehicle to infrastructure communication to provide real time warning to human driver to avoid crashes, congestion, weather etc. Working with local jurisdictions/public on project applications – identifying roadway and transit needs - Developing Measures of Effectiveness - Initial model alternatives Finalizing and implementing Public Involvement Plan Website update, email content, other communications

Potential Benefits Safety: 90% of crashes are caused by driver error at an annual cost of $300 billion Fuel Efficiency: Driverless cars will travel most fuel efficient way – projected to save from 25% -40% in fuel; lower level features lead to 10% savings Congestion: Better utilization of existing infrastructure particularly freeways Accessibility: Enhance mobility for people that can’t drive Savings: Travel cheaper and more convenient Data: Vehicles providing a large amount of travel data Freight: Platooned vehicles Reduced Road Rage/Consistent Speeds: Follow existing laws and regulations Working with local jurisdictions/public on project applications – identifying roadway and transit needs - Developing Measures of Effectiveness - Initial model alternatives Finalizing and implementing Public Involvement Plan Website update, email content, other communications

Issues for Deployment Legal, liability, licensing, security and insurance questions Cyber Attacks Cost of Vehicles Public fears and acceptance Weather influence on sensors Interaction with Bicyclists, Pedestrians, animals and non-autonomous vehicles Cost of implementing infrastructure needed and reduced transportation funding

Issues for Deployment (Cont.) Detection issues and unpredictability Different regulations in different areas Crash data reporting Increased issues from mixed fleet (potentially increased distraction) Potential travel behavior (sprawl, VMT increase etc.) Hype and rush to market

Survey Results (early 2017) 59% want autonomous features but 75% are afraid to ride in fully autonomous vehicles 44% would buy active safety features if less than $5,000

Projecting Automated Vehicle Use IHS Automotive predicts that there will be 54 million self driving vehicles by 2035 and every car will be autonomous by 2050 Within three years will have several models with mass market by 2025

Insurance Industry Perspective Reduce crashes by 80% by 2040 Level of automation may become a core dimension of driving risk Premiums consumers pay could drop by as much as 60% in15 years with self driving Liability shift to manufacturer Repair cost expected to increase due to technology Savings projected for autonomous vehicles per year: Crashes – $488 billion Production – $507 billion Fuel from congestion – $11 billion Productivity from congestion - $138 billion Fuel cost savings - $158 billion

Financial Industry Perspective Car Companies – 80 million sold each year at average $19,000 per vehicle is 1.5 trillion Silicon Valley – 10 trillion miles traveled at $1.00 per mile equates to 100 $100 billion markets Toyota - $250 billion in revenues took 70 years/Uber only at .4% now, at low increase to 1.7% would be $255 billion in 7 years Utilization of vehicles – parked 96% of the time Value of time – 10 trillion miles traveled at 25mph is 600 billion hours, global estimate is $1.80 per hour Real Estate – One billion cars with 4 parking spaces per car that equates to 43,000 square miles of potential repurposed land

USDOT Guidance Plan for a mixed fleet for many years Grants for autonomous vehicle projects need to be backed up with operations and maintenance funding for long term use of technology Work on infrastructure improvements that separate autonomous/non-autonomous Plan for turning a large amount of probe data from vehicles into useful data

Address in MPO LRTP Update FHWA is recommending scenarios to measure impact (including economic and demographic changes) and to support informed investment Update Goals and Objectives to include Revise Intelligent Transportation System Plans Change prioritization process to address benefits of CV technology Include infrastructure and technological improvements in LRTP’s to accommodate driverless vehicles Provide more education and awareness during public involvement activities

Current Planning Activities Transportation Model will now be able to show travel impact based on projected percentage of autonomous vehicles FDOT – Current study determining absorption rate for use in model Also looking at impact of projections on funding

Electric Vehicle Trends

Recent Announcements Volvo – By 2019 model year new car models will have an electric motor (fully electric, plug in hybrid or mild hybrid) France and Britain – Ban the sale of diesel/gas cars and vans by 2040 India – Sell only electric cars by 2030 Bloomberg – Predicts by 2040 54% of light duty vehicles sold will be electric (last years predictions was 34%) Ford – fewer models but more electric – 13 new in next 5 years GM – 20 new electric vehicles by 2023 & hydrogen fuel cells by 2020

Battery Trends Since 2010 – Lithium-ion batteries have fallen 73% per kWh By 2030 – Battery prices are projected fall another 70% through manufacturing improvements and doubling in battery power density Charge distance – 200-300 mile range Fast Charge – 50% charge in 20 minutes

Transportation Funding Electric vehicle Incentives are going away in some states, some are now charging registration fees (Washington, Georgia, Virginia) to make up revenue reductions

Questions or Comments Working with local jurisdictions/public on project applications – identifying roadway and transit needs - Developing Measures of Effectiveness - Initial model alternatives Finalizing and implementing Public Involvement Plan Website update, email content, other communications