Few Years Like 2015 Some are calling 2015 the toy industry’s best year ever, as total revenues increased 6.7% to $19.48 billion. This amount represents 80% of the market as measured by The NPD Group, but the entire industry likely generated $25 billion in revenues. Christmas week (12/20–12/26/15) was key to 2015’s spectacular performance, as sales that week increased 25%, which was larger than all other Q4 2015 weeks combined. Christmas week accounted for 8% of the year’s entire toy sales. The top 5 traditional toys by 2015 sales were Shopkins 12-Pack Assortment, Paw Patrol Basic Vehicle w/Pup Assortment, Hot Wheels Car Basic Assortment, Shopkins 2-Pack and Barbie Dream House.

Little Slowdown During Q1 2016 Although Q4 is traditionally the best quarter for the toy industry, it hardly skipped a beat during Q1 2016, as sales increased 6%, or $206 million, to a total of $3.43 billion. Much of the Q1 2016 increase was attributable to a 9% increase the week before Valentine’s Day and a 6% increase the week before Easter, which made March the largest of the three months in terms of sales dollars. Sports activities and games, playground equipment, bubble toys/solution and water/sand toys, all of which are part of the Outdoor & Sports category, were the most popular toys for Easter.

Growth Drivers Movie tie-ins were major factors of the toy industry’s outstanding 2015 and Q1 2016. Disney’s Frozen accounted for 2.6% of 2015 growth and Star Wars 2.9%, and 2016’s major movies are expected to drive significant sales throughout the year. Another major factor was Mattel losing the Disney Princess line of fashion dolls to Hasbro; however, Mattel experienced an improvement in its Barbie line with the introduction of Barbie Princess Power, Barbie Rock ‘n Royals and other new products. Population growth among children and youth younger than 17 increased 400,000 from 2010 to 2015, or a total of 74.5 million. For the period 2015–2035, this age group is forecast to increase 9.3% to 81.5 million.

Making the Play for Big Dollars Among the top 3 toymakers in the world – Mattel, Lego and Hasbro – Lego was the clear winner for 2015, recording an astounding 25% increase in sales, or $5.2 billion, compared to Mattel’s $5.7 billion and Hasbro’s $4.45 billion.   Traditional Lego sets based on movie licenses (Star Wars, The Avengers and Batman) were strong, but many parents also wanted learning-type toys based on the popularity of STEM education – Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics. For Q2 2016, Hasbro gained on Mattel, as Hasbro reported an 11% increase in worldwide net sales compared to Mattel’s 3% decline. Mattel’s 3% increase in net sales in North America was still less than Hasbro’s 11% increase.

Superheroes Conquer the Internet According to Slice Intelligence, women made 60% of online superhero-themed toys and apparel purchases during the January 2015–April 2016 period. For apparel sales, specifically, women’s purchase share was an even larger 70%. During the same period, Amazon accounted for 42.1% of online superhero toys and apparel sales; followed by Target, 9.8%; Walmart, 6.9%; Kohl’s, 6.3%; Old Navy, 5.9%; Hot Topic, 5.6%; Toys ‘R’ Us, 4.3%; and Best Buy, 3.8%. The top 5 superheroes in online toys and apparel sales for the same 16-month period were Batman, Spiderman, Superman, Captain America and Hulk. Among female characters, Wonder Woman was 7th; Batgirl, 10th; SuperGirl, 12th; and Black Widow, 16th.

The Future of Play During the 113th North American International Toy Fair (February 2016), 5 major toy industry trends were presented. Technology toys, in the form of drones and robots, are expected to be big sellers as well as smart tablets for toddlers and augmented reality. Educational toys will also be important, especially as they relate to STEAM, or Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts and Mathematics. Parents and educators recognize these as “brain-boosting” toys and preparatory for school and 21st-century careers. Toys that increase family interaction and bonding will also prove to be popular. This trend includes a nostalgic element, as Millennial and Generation X parents want to show their children the board games, puzzles and other traditional toys of their youth.

Advertising Strategies Independent toy and hobby stores can remain competitive if they are willing to increase inventories on items that major retailers may have trouble keeping on their shelves and advertising/promoting that advantage.   Independent toy and hobby stores could host and promote in store “toy fairs” during the early holiday shopping season, introducing the hottest and newest toys, have one or more employees dress in major superheroes costumes and provide music and refreshments. Independent toy and hobby stores could also bring attention to their establishments by being a collection point for Toys for Tots or similar programs, or promote a store donation to such programs for every consumer purchase that exceeds a certain amount.

New Media Strategies Use social media to share content, especially videos, showing and explaining the top toys in terms of safety for various age groups as well as toy-safety issues that are important to parents. Social media content can also emphasize the value of STEAM toys. Ask a local educator to record a series of videos with games in this category and/or write a few blog entries. Ask parents who have purchased these toys to explain how they have benefited their children. Since a major trend is current parents (Millennials and Generation Xers) wanting to share the toys of their childhood with their children, ask them to upload any old photos they may have of them playing with these toys and/or videos of the family playing them today.