Drought Monitoring and Forecasting Update on CPC Activities Douglas Le Comte Douglas.lecomte@noaa.gov NASA JPL Project Kickoff Meeting Lincoln, NE April 24-25, 2007

Advancing the Science of Monitoring and Forecasting The U.S. Drought Monitor Major component of NIDIS and the Portal The Seasonal Drought Outlook Working toward more objective tools A major component of NIDIS and an early warning system

Availability of Drought Products at CPC and NOAA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ Select “Drought Assessment” From the home page NOAA Drought Information Center www.drought.noaa.gov / Sel

NCEP NIDIS INITIATIVES Funded by the NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) through the Climate Prediction Program for the Americas (CPPA).  Through the CPPA support, the NCEP NIDIS thrusts have established strong partnerships between NWS OHD, EMC, CPC, the NASA Hydrological Sciences Branch at Goddard, as well as several key universities (e.g. University of Washington, Princeton University) and the Land Team of NESDIS/ORA.  Some of these partnerships will transition and test seasonal scale drought monitoring and prediction products in the NCEP-CPO Climate Test Bed.

NCEP NIDIS INITIATIVES Multi-Model Ensemble NLDAS: (i) EMC will implement four NLDAS systems at NCEP based on different models (Vic, Sac, Noah and Mosaic) and run in near-real time. (ii) CPC will evaluate the NLDAS’s, consolidate them into a multi-model ensemble, and distribute products to users. (iii) The multi-model ensemble will reduce uncertainties in the products.

New Monitoring Tool: Regional Reanalysis Moisture Output http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/RCDAS

The U.S. Drought Outlook Designed for a general audience and not for specific hydro or ag decision-making A schematic designed to provide a broad indication of drought trends for the following 3 ½ months Four categories: improve, some improvement (e.g., better soil moisture but continuing water supply shortages), persist/worsen, development/onset Issued same time as the CPC long lead outlooks on 3rd Thursday of the month, but with updates if needed (may change to twice/month schedule) Incorporates forecasts from all time periods (days, weeks, months)… it is a zero lead forecast. Starts with the most recent U.S. Drought monitor D1 areas Hopefully, you know a lot more than I do about the NAEF and how it will improve forecasts, since I’m pretty clueless here.

Principal Drought Outlook Inputs 2-Wk Soil Moisture CPC Long-Lead Precip. Outlook Constructed Analogue Soil Model Palmer 4-mo Probabilities Medium-Range Fcst

Selected Forecast Tools Soil Moisture Fcst UKMET Seasonal CPC ECCA

Toward NIDIS and Improved Forecasts A 2-path approach: 1) Improved schematic forecasts and 2) quantified probability forecasts of drought indices Improved statistical and dynamic seasonal forecasts of temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture Research leading to improved understanding of the underlying causes of drought (e.g., air-sea and ground-air interactions)

NCEP NIDIS INITIATIVES Long Term Plans : Support Seasonal Drought Outlook by providing objective ensemble (drought) forecasts. Employ both dynamical and statistical forecast tools in the ensemble. Forecast Variable: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months.

Sample Objective Drought Forecast This product from Princeton features probability soil moisture forecasts from both statistical and numerical models.

Near-term Changes in DO Phase 1: Change text on forecast map to clarify purpose and valid period (done in latest forecast) Phase 2: Eliminate ad hoc updates and publish an additional DO on the 1st Thursday of each month Phase 3: Change categories on the map, eliminating the “some improvement” category and adding an “intensification” category. Produce a complementary map with probabilities

Prototype Revised DO Map

Prototype Drought Probability Change Map