REVOLUTION: WHY THEN AND NOT NOW?

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Presentation transcript:

REVOLUTION: WHY THEN AND NOT NOW?

13. DYNAMICS OF POLITICAL TRANSFORMATION Categories for Analysis Oligarchic Rule and Top-Down Reform (1880s-1920s) Populism and Dictatorship (1930s-1970s) The Revolutionary Path (1950s-1980s) An Expansion of Democracy (1980s-Present) The Pulse of Democratic Change

WHAT IS A REVOLUTION? “an extralegal seizure of political power, by the use or threat of force, for the purpose of bringing about structural change in the distribution of political, social, or economic power” not the same as routine barracks revolts or golpes de estado

WHY THEN (1950s-70s)? Authoritarian regimes Socioeconomic inequality Personalist, corrupt Military repression No real elections Socioeconomic inequality Communication and awareness Cityward migration, social mobilization Marxist ideology Call for revolution Soviet + Chinese support Example of Cuba (1959)

AND NOW…? (1980s-2000s) Political democracy Socioeconomic development Dissent through elections Opposition victories Emergence of “new Left” Socioeconomic development Middle-class aspirations + conservative values Prosperity (of sorts) since 2004 Liberal ideology Rejection of Marxism “End of history” Example of Cuba (1990s-present)

THE RISE OF THE NEW LEFT: WHY? Economic—lack of growth (through 2003), poverty and inequality, frustration with Washington Consensus Political—weakness of representative institutions, inattention to poor, persistence of corruption; possibility of winning elections International—war in Iraq, opposition to Bush policies and growing distaste for American society

THE NEW LEFT: WHERE? South America: Central America: Near-Miss: Venezuela Brazil Argentina Bolivia Ecuador Paraguay Peru Uruguay Central America: Honduras Nicaragua El Salvador Near-Miss: Mexico

THE NEW LEFT: GOALS Domestic—winning power, rearranging electoral alignments; overturning status quo, changing policy direction, promoting social justice Hemispheric—gaining support throughout Latin America, reducing U.S. hegemony Global—challenging international order, forging alliances with developing world and non-aligned nations

CONSEQUENCES Democracy = broad ideological spectrum, from “left” to “right” Prosperity = mixed economies; rejection of Washington Consensus Ideology = diversity rather than unity Alliances = suspicion of U.S. leadership and rules of the game

The End.

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