Severe Storm Identification with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit Ralph Ferraro, NOAA/NESDIS James Beauchamp, ESSIC/CICS/University of Maryland College Park, Maryland USA 15-19 October 2012 IPWG#6 - Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil

IPWG#6 - Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil Outline Previous work and motivation for this study Vivian South Dakota Case Study Methodology Results Ongoing/Future work 15-19 October 2012 IPWG#6 - Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil

IPWG#6 - Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil Previous work Operational algorithms utilizing 183 GHz bands to delineate convective regions Levizanni, Laviola, et al. – 183-WSL Algorithm Weng, Zhao, Ferraro, et al. – MSPPS Algorithm Studies related to deep convection and hail: Cecil, Blankenship, et al.: Hail climatology with TMI and AMSR-E Cold PCT’s at 37 and 85 GHz Hong, Heygster et al.: Tracking deep convective cores with AMSU-B 15-19 October 2012 IPWG#6 - Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil

Why use AMSU/MHS for Hail Detection? Sensitive to scattering due to hail AND depth of convection can be detected by 183 GHz bands Surface effects much less than at 37 and 85 GHz Improved diurnal sampling of POES can give more complete hail climatology Surface reports of hail incomplete Can be insightful for future need for GEO MW sensor 15-19 October 2012 IPWG#6 - Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil

Vivian, SD Hail – 23 July 2010 8” Diameter; 1.9 lbs, 15-19 October 2012 IPWG#6 - Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil

N16 Overpass with Vivian, SD – AMSU-A 23 GHz 31 GHz 50.3 GHz 89 GHz 15-19 October 2012 IPWG#6 - Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil

IPWG#6 - Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil AMSU-B TB’s 150 GHz 183 +7 GHz 183 +3 GHz 183 +1 GHz 15-19 October 2012 IPWG#6 - Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil

X-Section Through Main Storm Core 15-19 October 2012 IPWG#6 - Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil

IPWG#6 - Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil Methodology AMSU TB’s (N15, N16, N18, MOA) from March – September 2005-07 over U.S., co-located with occurrences of hail from NOAA “Storm Reports” + 30 minutes and 100 km AMSU LZA + 30 deg Retain coldest TB’s for multiple matches Separate hail < 1” and > 1” 15-19 October 2012 IPWG#6 - Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil

IPWG#6 - Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil Results Developed simple “thresholding algorithm” based on TB means at 150 and 183 GHz from 2005 data for hail > 1” -Note the TB mean differences between the small and large hail -Results similar in 2006 as well 15-19 October 2012 IPWG#6 - Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil

IPWG#6 - Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil Results Applied two channel algorithm to Mar – Sept 2008 AMSU data Results gridded to 1.0 degree; a single report within that grid constitutes a “hail day” This approach may or may not be the best way to do this…. Relationships between both data agree (surprisingly) well (R=0.87) AMSU Storm Reports 15-19 October 2012 IPWG#6 - Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil

Some Further Preliminary Analysis What are the best set of predictors? PCA on AMSU-B Is hail size a factor? Nothing obvious Next step Examine hail vs. no-hail 15-19 October 2012 IPWG#6 - Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil

Ongoing and Future Work More robust co-located data sets 10 years of data Objectively determine optimal matching criteria More detailed statistical analysis PCA’s, cluster analysis, etc. Data denial, false alarm, etc. Use of NEXRAD data sets Automated hail detection algorithms Expand to global climatologies Compare and contrast with others 15-19 October 2012 IPWG#6 - Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil