Geert Bruinooge Deputy Director-General Statistics Netherlands International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends Ottawa, 27-29 May 2009 Geert Bruinooge Deputy Director-General Statistics Netherlands

SESSION 4; Extrapolation, modelling, econometric and sampling techniques used in the preparations of rapid estimates

The professionalism of statisticians is judged by their capacity to combine a high degree of reliability with satisfactory rapidity free quote from: “Understanding NATIONAL ACCOUNTS”, OECD

Quote: “I want to know today, what happened yesterday” Central banker, February 2009

Different approaches Rapid indicators of monthly GDP Economic models forecasting main economic variables Surveys Composite indicators Separate indicators for parts of economy

Monthly estimates of GDP Use of well established statistical methods New rapid estimates for white spots International effort to provide common methodology and framework

Economic models forecasting main economic variables Forecasts may prove wrong Exogenous data may contain errors Model may be subject to error Model may fail due to structural break in economic development Forecasts may jeopardize public trust in NSI’s NSI’s shouldn’t forecast but stop at now casts

Surveys Surveys are useful for information on the present and near future state of the economy Representative surveys with low sampling variability are costly and lack timeliness Many NSI’s have to use data registers and administrations (VAT, wage tax)

Composite indicators Composite indicators present already available data in consistent and coherent way Composite indicators consist of coincident, leading and lagging indicators Careful selection of variables

Separate indicators Separate indicators linked to specific characteristics of countries Examples: Freight (by container, by air, by road) Mobile call minutes Visitor arrivals New cars registration Floor area under construction Production of cement ATM cash withdrawals, electronic payments Careful selection of indicators based on sharp criteria

Concluding remarks Different approaches Promising results Much work to be done “Proof of the pudding is in the eating” International comparability