IMPACT OF MIGRATIONS AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ON REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT - SUMADIJA AND POMORAVLJE, SERBIA - Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia and Regional Economic Development Agency for Sumadija and Pomoravlje (REDASP)

SORS participates at the project in partnership with Regional Economic Development Agency for Sumadija and Pomoravlje. Our main goal was to produce population projections for the region of Sumadija and Pomoravlje 2011-2020-2030, by age and gender. The region of Sumadija and Pomoravlje NUTS3 level consists of Sumadija District with 7 municipalities and Pomoravlje District with 6 municipalities. The method used for population projections was analytical cohort-component method. PROJECTIONS WERE DONE IN FIVE VARIANTS: 1) low, 2) middle, 3) high, 4) variant of constant fertility and mortality and 5) variant of zero migration balance.

RESULTS OF POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR SUMADIJA AND POMORAVLJE 2011-2020-2030. The Republic of Serbia 2011 – average age 42,2

RESULTS OF PROJECTIONS IN ALL VARIANTS SHOW THE FOLLOWING TRENDS: Decrease – total population, and age groups 0-14% and 15-64% Increase life-expectancy, average age, population age groups 65+% and 80+%.

SORS → POPULATION PROJECTIONS + PARTNERSHIP WITH SORS SORS → POPULATION PROJECTIONS + REDASP → QUALITATIVE INPUT AND LSG OWNERSHIP OF PS RESULTS = MMWD TOOLS INTEGRATED IN POLICY PLANNING TO FACE DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES

What we have done Motivated national, regional and local stakeholders and involved item in the process – Ministries of economy and education, SEIO, NARD, RDAs, local self-governments, NES, Regional Chamber of Commerce, Social welfare center, Center for professional upgrading, SCOs Encouraged Cross-sector dialogue and aproach (round tables and inter-sector review of policy scenario / qualitative dimension) Collected qualitative input to qwantitative data processed by SORS Knowlege exchange day and training material on migration impacts and policy scenario development provided for the stakeholders Implementation of pilot initiatives (wp6) in the process of revision of local development and sector strategies Policy scenario for Sumadija and Pomoravlje

DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS / BASE FOR POLICY SCENARIO Continuous depopulation, in all variants of projections All variants of projections show reduced number and share of youth younger than 15 – according to the variant of low fertility reduced for one quarter Reduced number and share of persons 15-64 years of age for 17% - according to variant of zero migration saldo, even for one fifth – emphasizes relevance of migration for future stability of labor market Significant increase of share of old persons – only the synchronized effects of migrations and increasing fertility (high variant) can slower the effects of population growing older Immigrations without growing fertility increase effects of population growing older Consequences of low fertility (number of new borns) are the key challenge in the future on both stability of labor market and sustainability of welfare system Significant increase of the rate of dependency – especially higher pressure due to older population. More persons 80 and older than 80. Moderate trend of growing positive migration saldo followed by the low fertility trend CANNOT REDUCE CHALLENGES!

Main challenges LABOUR MARKET in the Region is characterized by the following parameters: Mismatch between supply and demand for labour force, Increased disparity in qualification Age and professional structure of the employed High rate of youth unemployment and High rate of people with lower and middle levels of education, High long-term unemployment with large intra-regional imbalances of unemployment.

EDUCATION The decline in the total population that leads to a decline of work capable population, imposes the need to improve the knowledge and skills of the existing labour force, especially of those who are just entering the labour market. Raising the quality of the work force by education and training and social inclusion of individuals and groups who are socially excluded will have an increasing importance for the balance of the labor market. In this regard, it is very important to invest efficiently in education – from Functional elementary and vocational adult education and training to professional upgrading and development of new skills

SOCIAL SERVICES After macro-economic conditions got worse after the global economic crisis and rising unemployment, living standards were deteriorated. Consequently, number of beneficiaries of social services increased, in particular: children affected by family situation persons without income old persons. The absolute poverty line, after the global economic crisis, marked an increase that is continued until today. MEASURES OF SOCIAL INCLUSION OF THE MOST VULNERABLE GROUPS ARE OF GREAT RELEVANCE TO LABOUR MARKET SITUATION.

FURTHER CHALLENGES FOR THE REGION Lack of data/ records on migration, especially emigration Disparity of standard statistical data, especially on education levels, in comparison with EU countries Centralized system, slow integration of regional institutions Lack of cross-sector approach in policy making Policy making affected by instable political situation – at all levels Not integrated evidence-based planning nor migration management NEEDED INTERNATIONAL NETWORKS AND USE OF SCIENTIFIC METHODS EXPERT BODIES FOR MIGRATION MANAGEMENT INDEPENDENT OF POLITICAL SHANGES

T H A N K Y O U SORS and REDASP Serbia October 13, 2014