Large scale modelling of the distribution of butterfly biodiversity in Europe using the BioVeL portal on the EGI infrastructure Yuliya Fetyukova, Hannu Saarenmaa, University of Eastern Finland, Joensuu, Finland; Matthias Obst, Sarah Bourlat, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden; Renato De Giovanni, Reference Center on Environmental Information, Campinas SP, Brazil; Alan Williams, Norman Morrison, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK, Francisco Quevedo, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK 20 May 2014 University of Helsinki, EGI Community Forum 2014

Butterfly distribution modelling Species distribution modelling allows determining variation among species and their shifts over time as responds to climate and environmental changes. Butterflies are good and viable biological indicators: - well documented; - easy to identify and monitor; - butterflies and moths comprise 5% of terrestrial biodiversity; - react quickly to changes. Study case steps: - modelling historical and current species distribution; - estimate future climatic changes on species; - computation of habitat suitability shifts - compute trends in change of abundance, and estimate Essential Biodiversity Variables

Ecological niche modelling General principles of Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) method

BioVeL Ecological niche modelling The BioVeL project is creating a set of workflows (series of data analysis steps) and Web Services for scientists to perform different analyses in the fields of ecology, taxonomy, phylogenetics and metagenomics. Data Species occurrence data of all Butterflies in Europe* 344 species occurrence data sets GBIF Data Portal http://www.gbif.org/ Environmental layers WorldClim repository http://www.worldclim.org/ Tools Data Refinement Workflow, DRF Ecological niche modelling workflow, ENM The ENM Statistical Workflow, ESW BioVeL portal data sweep function for batch processing https://portal.biovel.eu/ * Karsholt, O. & Razowski, J. (Eds.), 1996. The Lepidoptera of Europe: A distributional checklist, 380 pp, Apollo Books, Stenstrup, Denmark

GBIF species occurrence data 344 GBIF species occurrence data sets have been processed by BioVeL workflows Europe mask: decimalLatitude: [32, 72]; decimalLongitude: [-10, 40]

Species occurrence data http://www.gbif.org Erynnis tages [Dingy Skipper] georeferenced data BioSTIF: Biodiversity Spatial Temporal Interactive interface 1776 occurrences Erynnis tages: Species distribution in 1960 – 1990

Historic species distribution Erynnis tages species distribution in 1960 – 1990 Algorithm: Maximum entropy Terrestrial layers : - Annual mean temperature; - Annual precipitation; - Maximum temperature of warmest month; - Minimum temperature of coldest month. - Altitude in meters Overall coverage: 74.8% Overall intensity: 10.7%

Habitat suitability shifts by 2050 Erynnis tages: diffLayer = predictionLayer – historicalLayer Cells with colors from green to red indicate an increase and from green to blue a decrease of predicted potential for a species.

Shift vectors SHIFT vectors: 1 Erynnis tages 622.42 km 3 SHIFT vectors: 1 Erynnis tages 622.42 km 2 Spialia sertorius 424.31 km 3 Carcharodus alceae 539.04 km

Coverage and Intensity statistics increase(+)/ decrease(-) in coverage, % intensity 1960-1990, % intensity 2050, % in intensity, % Erynnis tages 74.77 84.14 9.37 10.75 10.26 -0.48 Spialia sertorius 63.45 78.69 15.23 6.05 4.71 -1.34 Carcharodus alceae 83.46 97.34 13.89 16.64 20.09 3.45 . . . 344 species Essential Biodiversity Variable of overall butterfly distribution change STACK of 344 maps

BioVeL portal & ENM wfs EGI deployment of ENM related services: - parallelized computation and hence scalable workflow execution Portal sweep data functionality: - batch processing of large amount of species http://www.biovel.eu/ https://portal.biovel.eu/

THANK YOU! http://www.gbif.org