Technical Leaders Group Update 16th September 2014

“You don’t need a roadmap when you lay your own road”

Healthy Rivers Policy Process Desired Values Setting Attribute Levels Water quality (N, P, Sed., bacteria) consistent with Desired Values Scenario Analysis – looking at future options for Limits on point and non-point losses from land Integrated assessment across Values to provide CSG with social, economic, cultural & ecological analysis deliberations CSG CSG Focus Statement e.g., safe to swim, take food, provide well being) Can be ‘alternative’ detail below that CSG outcomes Assess options against Values & risk Consensus? Seek further scenarios? TLG advises, using: Guidelines e.g., NOF Existing information Experts input TLG, using experts for: Predictive modelling Non-market valuation studies

To Date: Next Steps: Desired Values developed/confirmed by CSG Setting Attribute Levels Water quality (N, P, Sed., bacteria) consistent with Desired Values TLG advises, using: Guidelines (e.g., NOF) Existing information Experts input To Date: Desired Values developed/confirmed by CSG National Objectives Framework with attribute tables just produced TLG presented Freshwater Management Unit options at CSG#5 Next Steps: Technical experts develop a Draft Waikato Objectives Framework (a ‘WOF’) TLG presents that at CSG#7 Subsequent work on gap-filling on an ‘as needs’ basis TLG uses ‘WOF’ attribute levels in scenario analysis (next slide)

To Date TLG has: Next Steps: Reviewed relevance of previous studies Scenario Analysis – looking at future options for Limits on point and non-point losses from land Integrated assessment across Values to provide CSG with social, economic, cultural & ecological analysis TLG, using experts for: Predictive modelling Non-market valuation studies To Date TLG has: Reviewed relevance of previous studies Built understanding of studies already underway, their availability, what they might deliver for Healthy Rivers, and when Prepared work briefs for initial technical experts’ workshops (see next slide) Next Steps: September – experts report to TLG identifying gaps, work-streams to fill them, costs, and timing. October - TLG reviews reports, sets priorities on work-streams, develops work briefs, and recommends commissioning to Te Roopu Hautu TLG updates at CSG#7

Work-streams currently underway: Scenario Analysis – looking at future options for Limits on point and non-point losses from land Integrated assessment across Values to provide CSG with social, economic, cultural & ecological analysis TLG, using experts for: Predictive modelling Non-market valuation studies Work-streams currently underway: Groundwater - hydrology, age, quality, and N attenuation Extension of the economic impact scenario modelling Social and cultural impacts of scenarios Work-brief currently being worked on: Matauranga Māori knowledge networks and the four contaminants

Beyond CSG 7 Scenario modelling that describes effects of (different) attribute limits on: Values met Mitigations required Costs ($, where, who) Impacts (social and cultural) Anticipate findings in the new year; then iteration

Healthy Rivers Policy Process Desired Values Setting Attribute Levels Water quality (N, P, Sed., bacteria) consistent with Desired Values Scenario Analysis – looking at future options for Limits on point and non-point losses from land Integrated assessment across Values to provide CSG with social, economic, cultural & ecological analysis deliberations CSG CSG Focus Statement e.g., safe to swim, take food, provide well being) Can be ‘alternative’ detail below that CSG outcomes Assess options against Values & risk Consensus? Seek further scenarios? TLG advises, using: Guidelines e.g., NOF Existing information Experts input TLG, using experts for: Predictive modelling Non-market valuation studies

The Long Short and Winding Road…