Department of Meteorology and Hydrology Myanmar

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Presentation transcript:

Department of Meteorology and Hydrology Myanmar Forecast for WINTER Season MYANMAR Department of Meteorology and Hydrology Myanmar 1

verification of the consensus forecast issued by SASCOF-9 Content Climate of Myanmar El-Nino/La-Nina Condition verification of the consensus forecast issued by SASCOF-9 Forecast for Northeast Monsoon season (Nov& Dec,2017) & (Jan and Feb,2018)

Climate of Myanmar Annual Rainfall & Heavy Rainfall episode Main Influence & Season Criteria for Heavy Rainfall (Dry Zone) RF—38mm/24hr and more Southwest monsoon Northeast monsoon Rainy Winter Summer Seasons Monsoon System Criteria for Heavy Rainfall (others) RF—77mm/24hr and more

El Nino and La Nina Condition

2016 NW Monsoon Condition and verification of the consensus forecast issued by SASCOF-9 for Northeast monsoon season

Definition of Normal, Above & Below of normal (Precipitation) Normal : Average amount of previous 30 years (at least) rainfall data (Between -20 % and +20 %) Above Normal : > (+ 20%) of the Normal Below Normal : < (- 20%) of the Normal % Departure : (Actual/Normal)*100-100

Mean Temperature in November (1981-2010) Actual Mean Temperature in November,2016

Mean Temperature in December (1981-2010) Actual Mean Temperature in December,2016

Mean Temperature in January (1981-2010) Actual Mean Temperature in January,2016

Mean Temperature in February (1981-2010) Actual Mean Temperature in February,2017

Consensus Temp Outlook for the 2016 Northeast Monsoon And Actual Temp for Myanmar in NE Monsoon Season During the season, normal to slightly above normal temperatures are likely, over most parts of the region. Normal-NDJF Actual-NDJF

Above Normal Minimum temperature in Chin, Bago, Kayah and Mon About normal in the Remaining Regions and States during winter season. In 2016 winter season, Below Above

Normal Rainfall in October (1981-2010) Actual Rainfall in October, 2016

Normal Rainfall in November (1981-2010) Actual Rainfall in November, 2016

Normal Rainfall in December (1981-2010) Actual Rainfall in December, 2016

Below Normal Above Normal Normal Percentage Departure Rainfall in Nov, 2016 Percentage Departure Rainfall in Oct, 2016 Percentage Departure Rainfall in Dec, 2016 Normal Above Normal Below Normal

Verification with Actual and Consensus Outlook for the 2016 Northeast Monsoon Rainfall rainfall distribution is below normal and normal during the 2016 northeast monsoon season (Oct – Dec) over Myanmar. Above Normal Below

Temperature and Rainfall Forecast for Northeast Monsoon Season (October-December), 2017

ECMWF Below Normal Rainfall in southern and Eastern Myanmar others normal

NOAA/CPC Slightly above Normal Rainfall in the whole country

Normal Above Normal

nmme Nov Dec Feb Jan Above Normal

Forecast for 2018 Northeast Monsoon Season (Oct, 2107 to Feb,2018) forecast for NDJF, Below Normal Normal Above Normal

Lower Myanmar: Normal Temperature NOAA/CPC Lower Myanmar: Normal Temperature Upper Myanmar :Above Normal Temperature

Normal Temperature in the whole Myanmr

Above Normal Above : Upper Myanmar Normal : Lowe Myanmar

Temperature forecast for 2017 NE Monsoon Season(Oct to Dec) Above : Upper Myanmar Normal : Lower Myanmar