Housing and business needs surveys A presentation by Danny Friedman and Ros Grimes 24 October 2017

The housing needs survey

Our approach Study commissioned to provide robust evidence base to inform policies in the Neighbourhood Plan In order to obtain a complete picture and achieve the most accurate assessment of housing need there were three strands to our approach: Postal / web-based survey of residents – central to the collection of original data Interviews with stakeholders – to assist with ‘on the ground’ picture Analysis of secondary data – to provide context,, understanding and projections

This presentation will cover …… The context to understanding housing requirements in the area – demographics, incomes, prices, employment, affordability …. The main findings from the resident survey and stakeholders interviews Bringing it all together – what this means for future housing requirements and policy directions

Context: general Population: Increasing population 2001-2015 (6%), but slower rate than overall Wiltshire (10%) Age: Relative increase in over 50s (higher than national average), decline in younger ‘family’ groups, small increase in younger adults Household size: More 1 / 2 person households and significantly more 65+ households than national average Tenure: 60% owner – occupiers (64% national; high proportions of social and private renting) Property type: 83% households live in houses (18% flats in Marlborough – hardly any elsewhere) Health: 85% residents have good health – higher than national average Education: High proportion with degree plus qualifications (45%)

Context: economic activity, income, prices, rents Economic activity and incomes 64% working age people in employment (67% active); 60% drive to work; greater proportion of homeworkers than average High proportion in managerial / professional sectors. Marlborough College has considerable impact on local economy Average (median) income £37,960 ; lowest quarter £21,000 - £25,000; highest quarter £84,000 - £93,000 The younger earn less House prices 27% increase 2010 to 2016 (£300,000 to £380,000). More expensive in rural areas. 1.3 times England average Lowest quarter prices: average £220,000 - £250,000 Rents £829 pcm (£650 for 1 bed, £1,350 for 4 bed) Lowest quarter average rent is £547 pcm

Context: affordability Assume household should not have to pay more than 33% gross income on housing Buying: lower quarter price of £220,000 / £250,000 Income required £47,000 pa in Marlborough, £54,000 in rural areas Lower quarter requirement v lower quarter actual earnings: 2.2 Private renting: £19,000 / £24,000 to get lower quarter 2-bed Intermediate tenure (shared ownership): £30,000 / £33,000 required Young people: The ratios are worse for young people: 3.5 / 5.4 x actual earnings to buy; 1.4 / 2.4 to rent

Context: active housing market According to stakeholders Under-supply of most forms of housing, keeping prices constant / upward-moving More localised market – more moves within area than incomers recently (downsizing / upsizing) Reduction in families with children Concern about over-proliferation of private retirement developments Concern about lack of affordable options for low-paid local workers Low cost home ownership very popular but undersupplied Reliance on ‘Bank of Mum and Dad’ Mixed private rented market, not as strong as elsewhere

Context: future housing development 920 new homes planned between 2015 – 2026 in Marlborough Community Area (larger than NP area); 620 in Marlborough itself All bar 57 completed, or committed (39 with outline planning permission) Consultation on further sites in June 2017, but not affecting NP area Development constrained by natural features, AONB status etc Frustrated ambitions of housing associations to build more shared ownership homes in particular Survey results supported more small scale developments, particularly affordable homes for young people; and concern about retirement developments

Context: future population growth Population increase of 549 to 10,141 between 2014 to 2026 (6%) Drivers are natural growth and internal UK migration Cross-border inward and outward migration in balance (6%) Over time, more deaths than births; but compensated for by internal migration If more land released, population will rise But geopolitical factors will be relevant: continued impact of recession, local and national economy, Brexit

Resident survey: how it was conducted Every household in Marlborough and the three surrounding Parishes was sent a questionnaire by post (4,217 in total) General section on housing and more detailed information collected from households who expected to be looking for accommodation in the next five years Freepost return envelope provided Web alternative publicised in covering letter and on Town Council website

Resident survey: who responded Almost one in four households (24%) replied Relatively more questionnaires were returned by older residents so an adjustment was made to make the results more reflective of the actual age profile of the area Most were established residents, 70% had lived here for at least 10 years The majority were home owners

Resident survey: in movers One in five taking part had come to live in the area within the previous five years Reasons for coming to live here included: for employment, to be near family, a pleasant town with good amenities, the rural nature of the surrounding area, good schools, a lively community and a compact town layout. ‘Marlborough is a place that people want to be so demand is always strong’

Resident survey: views on the supply of housing Acceptable and most needed types of property

Resident survey: views on the supply of housing Acceptable sizes for local developments

Resident survey: future demand How likely are existing households to move in the next five years

Resident survey: future demand Who is moving and why More likely to be moving are: Younger households Working households Those who already have a mortgage Those in private rented accommodation Reasons for wanting to move included: Needing a larger (32%)or smaller (18%) property Employment reasons (16%) To reduce housing (16%) and/or energy (14%)costs To be nearer shops and services (10%) To be nearer family and friends (8%) To move into home ownership (8%) Health care, access or support reasons (13%)

Resident survey: future demand New households There were 161 households (17%) of the total who thought that someone might move out to form their own household within the next five years Reasons for creation of new households included: Young people becoming independent from the family home (80%) Marriage/moving in with a partner (15%) To take up employment (9%) To attend university(5%) To obtain care and support or a more suitable property(7%) Taken together with existing households moving, on the basis of the survey there would be around 400 households looking for accommodation

Resident survey: nature of future demand Preferred size and location of accommodation

Resident survey: nature of future demand Preferred and expected tenure

Resident survey: nature of future demand Preferred and expected property type

Resident survey: future demand Affordability Purchase 42% of prospective purchasers have a upper limit of £250,000 48% can afford in excess of £250,000; others uncertain Lower thresholds for new households Renting 53% cannot afford rent above £600 pcm 87% have an upper limit of £800 pcm Rents in the private sector expected to be the highest Income Half the sample earn less than £33,600 pa 23% earn in excess of £52,800 pa Conclusion: The supply of property needs to meet a very wide range of requirements

Bringing it all together The demand data from the survey from people seeking to move (new, part and existing households) over next five years The data on affordability, prices and rents taken from secondary sources The ability of the market sector to meet that demand The consequent need for non-market or affordable housing to meet the difference

Health warnings Following figures are not necessarily requirements for new developments: some need met from empty homes of those leaving, people dying, people finding rehousing outside area. Excludes demand from potential incomers – this is just about the current population of the NP area 24% of households responded; we assume that most of those wanting to move took the opportunity to express their views, but we cannot assume that all the other 76% do not want to move, or do not have views on their housing requirements. Figures should therefore be taken as an indicative minimum. We only had full data (income and bedroom requirements) on 372 of the 404 households that wanted to move – another reason to treat these figures as minimum requirements

Additional demand next five years: 372 households Can afford market housing Could afford intermediate housing Could meet needs in PRS Require social / affordable rented Bedroom requirement 1 7 5 28 52 2 22 30 47 48 3 27 25 4+ 20 Total 97 68 100 107

Some thoughts on policy directions … The impact of the ageing population Older groups increasing disproportionately faster than younger groups Cost of housing and necessity of commuting also factors Impacts on employers in area in recruiting / retaining lower paid staff (also Brexit / immigration?) Little appetite for sheltered / retirement homes and indications of over provision THEREFORE: more investment in aids / adaptations / floating support in order to reduce reliance on overstretched services, keep people in independent accommodation, avoid development of specialist accommodation

Some thoughts on policy directions … Retaining younger households into the future Though number of families reduced, number of ‘pre-families; increasing Substantial demand (160 households) from those planning to move from this group In interests of local economy and to support older population to retain this group Won’t be able to afford to buy (even shared ownership) However private renting more of an option for younger households on median incomes THERFORE: policy initiatives to encourage responsible private landlords, unused space ‘over the shop’, , private renting in new developments, co-operation with College?; also, measures to boost young peoples incomes – employment / training initiatives, involving local business for example

Some thoughts on policy directions … Expensive – but not that expensive Prices relatively low (1.3 X England average) Prices and sales levels relatively stable the last few years Less in-migration from other parts of England than in earlier years (helping to keep prices down) Worth taking measures to retain affordability in owner-occupier market: THEREFORE: tight planning watch on speculative development; future approach to site appraisals that prioritise social / community gain; encouragement of community asset status on eligible and potentially vulnerable sites; implementation of rural exemption sites status where applicable

Some thoughts on policy directions … Intermediate and affordable housing Requirement for wide range of housing at different market points Substantial interest in intermediate housing, from Has and residents (50 locals on Council SO register; 68 could afford it – including 25% with children – the newly developing households) 30% can only afford social / affordable; but 80% of these have no children so reliant on PRS, or leaving area 17% have children – require in situ development THEREFORE: careful attention to ensuring affordable provision especially in view of paucity / limited number of sites; likewise if there are ad hoc CiL or S106 opportunities; importance of not allowing development constraints to force prices up or affordability provision down.

Business survey and employment data

Employment and work travel 60% of the sample currently employed (40% full time, 20% part time) Almost half work within Marlborough and the Parishes but 44% travel outside Swindon and London the most likely single destinations 60% travel to work by car and there is very little use of public transport One in four walk, cycle or work from home so do not impact on parking or congestion issues

Business survey: method used and response received Postal survey sent to all households with the housing questionnaire Distributed by post to existing businesses in the town by the Town Council A web version also available Focus on requirements for premises in the future 167 responses in total (156 existing businesses, 8 potential new ones and 3 both running a business and proposing a new one)

Business survey: existing businesses Sample profile Mostly small – three out of four had 0 – 5 employees (approximately 800 people employed) 40% work from home, most of the remainder rent premises The majority were well established in Marlborough but 9% had been in business less than two years. Nature of business very varied; health and wellbeing an important sector The most important of the reasons for locating here is because it is where they also live – the business fits the location

Business survey: existing businesses Looking ahead 15% expect to need new premises within five years and a further 22% think it is possible. May mean up to 60 businesses looking for premises Those currently renting are most likely to move Most are looking for relatively small spaces Three out of four would want premises in the Marlborough area Around 20 businesses would be interested in serviced office accommodation

Business survey: existing businesses New business creation Sectors include manufacturing, health and wellbeing and others More than half will work from home; employment creation is limited but there is potential for growth If looking for premises a range of sizes will be needed Preferred locations edge of town or more rural

Business survey: overview of future demand for premises Potentially 35 – 40 people looking for premises Space requirements range from less than 25 sq.m. to 1500 sq.m but the emphasis is on small spaces Not necessarily a requirement for all new spaces Potentially more than 20 people interested in serviced offices or start up units

Business survey: factors influencing business success positively Better/faster broadband More/better parking Ease of travel around the area/traffic management Reasonable rent and rates Good road and rail communications Good footfall/client base Promotion of the area as attractive to tourists Several comments linked to maintaining the appeal and vibrancy of the High Street

Business survey: factors likely to inhibit business success Lack of parking High rent/rates Poor broadband Traffic congestion/road works Poor communications/transport links Availability of suitable/trained staff Financial concerns/economic uncertainty Lack of availability of suitable/affordable premises

Business survey: conclusions Overall a healthy business climate Evidence of new business creation and a broad range of business types But limited scope for the creation of significant additional employment opportunities The availability of adequate parking is a concern, as is congestion and traffic management A significant number feel that tourism is important for their business Desire for careful guardianship of the High Street area to preserve both functionality and charm and attractiveness Future demand for premises is likely to be largely at the smaller end and there is some interest in serviced offices