China: Growth and Opportunity Globalization and the Ever Shrinking World

Questions To Ponder As we discuss China, and as you watch part of Tank Man, please think about the following questions: How has China changed over the last 35years? What are the positive aspects of this change? What are the negative aspects of this change? What risks are there in the system that has been set up?

History of China Glory Years Rejection of England/Outside World Opium War Japan China Civil Unrest and Civil War Mao and Communism Great Leap and Cultural Revolution Mao’s Death

China 1978: Summary Stats Average Schooling: 4 years Life Expectancy: 68 years Urban Population: 17.8% GDP per capita: approximately 2000 Yuan (at today’s exchange rate that is equivalent to about $300 per person) Source: Dr Juefee Wang; lecture 3-4-09

Reforms Abolish Communes Recognition of Knowledge and Intellectuals Restoration of Entrance Exams for Colleges Reopening of Graduate Schools People Responsible for Production in Economy

Agreement Between Government and People Communist Government Remains Capitalist Economic System

Slow Change Change was slow at first: Economy slowly getting better; Government still very totalitarian

China FRONTLINE: the tank man | PBS

China Today Section Five of the Computer Information Network and Internet Security, Protection, and Management Regulations approved by the State Council on 11 December 1997 states the following: No unit or individual may use the Internet to create, replicate, retrieve, or transmit the following kinds of information: Inciting to resist or breaking the Constitution or laws or the implementation of administrative regulations; Inciting to overthrow the government or the socialist system; Inciting division of the country, harming national unification; Inciting hatred or discrimination among nationalities or harming the unity of the nationalities; Making falsehoods or distorting the truth, spreading rumors, destroying the order of society; Promoting feudal superstitions, sexually suggestive material, gambling, violence, murder; Terrorism or inciting others to criminal activity; openly insulting other people or distorting the truth to slander people; Injuring the reputation of state organizations; Other activities against the Constitution, laws or administrative regulations.[14] Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_censorship_in_the_People's_Republic_of_China

Agreement (?) Between US and China China keeps their currency value low China makes products US buys products China takes the money from this and lends it back to us to help us fund our deficit spending- currently we are in debt to China approximately $1.3 trillion.

Economic Growth in China Source: Chinability.com 2002 9.1% 2003 10.0% 2004 10.1% 2005 9.9% 2006 11.1% 2007 11.4% 2008 9.6% 2009 8.7% 2010 10.3% 2011 9.2% 2012: 7.8% 2013: 7.7% 2014: 7.3% Estimated 2015: 6.9% Estimated 2016: 6.6% Estimated

Economic Growth in China 1% GDP growth means approximately 1,000,000 new jobs. According to Wang Juefei the breakeven point for China is approximately 8% growth per year. Below this figure, the workers moving from the farms to the city will not find jobs.

Speed YouTube - Speed (1994) Theatrical Trailer China is that bus! “It has to grow at a minimum of 8% per year or it will explode because it will have so much unemployment and discontent, the population will erupt.” Nayan Chanda, former Editor of the Far Eastern Economic Review

Changes in China GDP per capita in China (source CIA Factbook): After years of double digit growth in GDP, the per capita GDP in China is approximately $15,400. US GDP per capita in 2016 was $56,300 (CIA Factbook)

Education In China Compulsory education ages 6-15 (Grades 1-9) Currently allocate 2% of GDP to education; in the US we allocate approximately 5.5%

China Today 1978 2016 Average Schooling 4 years 14 years Life Expectancy 68 75.5 Labor Force 400 million 806million Urban Population 17.8% 55.6% GDP Per Capita (US $’s) 290 $15,400

China and the US US 2016 China 2016 Average Schooling 17 years Life Expectancy 79.8 75.5 Labor Force 158.6 million 806 million Urban Population 81.6% 55.6% GDP Per Capita (US $’s) $57,300 $15,400 GDP $18.56 Trillion $11.4 Trillion

Sources Information on the previous slide is from Dr Wang Juefei, Professor at UVM, and the CIA FactBook.

Relationship US and China Over the past 15-20 years, there has been a strong economic tie between the US and China. This has worked to the advantage of each country- China growth of Middle Class; US access to cheaper goods Potential for Conflict: Political goals for China in S. China Sea

Questions To Ponder How has China changed over the last 30 years? What are the advantages and disadvantages to the changes in China? Is this growth sustainable? What risks are there in the current system? What would create a showdown between the Government and the People? Who would win a showdown between the government and the people?