Richard H. Johnson Colorado State University

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Presentation transcript:

Convection over the Northern South China Sea during the Onset of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Richard H. Johnson Colorado State University Acknowledgments: Paul Ciesielski, Mike Toy, Andy Newman, Tom Keenan, Steve Aves Symposium on Ocean and Atmosphere Research in the South China Sea Taipei, 19-20 January 2016 4 June 2008

Cool water develops along China coastline during winter monsoon (Johnson and Houze 1987)

11 January 2016

JUNE-JULY Summer monsoon onset over northern SCS in mid-May: Northeasterlies switch to southwesterlies; warm air flow over cool water (Johnson and Houze 1987)

SOP-mean QuikSCAT winds: warm air flowing over cool water MAY-JUNE 2008 SOP-mean QuikSCAT winds: warm air flowing over cool water

Flow Across Meandering SST Front Stable conditions prevent vertical mixing of higher momentum from aloft Adapted from Chelton and Xie (2010)

SOP-mean QuikSCAT winds: warm air flowing over cool water MAY-JUNE 2008 SOP-mean QuikSCAT winds: warm air flowing over cool water

Control and Smoothed SST WRF-ARW Runs SMTHSST adjusted to match GFS SST values at boundaries SST gradient in SMTHSST not unlike some years (later) 13-18 JUNE 2008 (Toy and Johnson 2014, JAS)

Rainfall Enhancement Due to SST Gradient  Difference in rainfall between smoothed and 2008 observed SST gradient around Taiwan  Parts of southwest Taiwan receive ~30% (125 mm) more rainfall over five-day period (13-18 June) * Taipei * Hualien * Tainan * Kaohsiung Toy and Johnson (2014, JAS)

South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) – May-June 1998 Study of key processes associated with onset and evolution of SE Asia summer monsoon BMRC C-POL RADAR

Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) Organization (based on 88 linear, warm-sector MCSs, May 1996,97) (58%) 6-8 h (19%) 4-6 h (19%) 4-6 h (Parker and Johnson 2000)

South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) – May-June 1998 Study of key processes associated with onset and evolution of SE Asia summer monsoon BMRC C-POL RADAR

SCSMEX 6-hour Radar Animation 5 June 1998 TS ● Hong Kong BMRC C-POL RADAR

SCSMEX 4-hour Radar Animation 18 May 1998 LS ● Hong Kong

SCSMEX 6-hour Radar Animation 8 June 1998 PS ● Hong Kong

STUDY PERIOD May-June 1998

CONVECTION ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SCSMEX Modes of Organization as a Function of the Low and Midlevel Wind Shears Low-level shear layer: 1000-800 hPa Mid-level shear layer: 800-400 hPa (>4 m s-1) SHEAR- BAND CONVECTION ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHEAR- BAND SHEAR- BAND SHEAR- BAND Classification based on LeMone et al. (1998) (>5 m s-1) SHEAR- BANDS (Johnson et al. 2005, MWR)

Heavy rainfall in coastal regions Ten-year (1998-2007) May-June Mean Rainfall (Johnson 2011) Heavy rainfall in coastal regions TRMM 3B42

Heaviest rainfall occurs along shore – Western Ghats and Myanmar: suggests topography and diurnal cycle likely important (sea/land, mountain/valley breezes)

Normalized Amplitude, Mean Diurnal Cycle of May-June Rainfall (1998-2007) (Johnson 2011) Morning maxima: base of Himalayas, lee of Tibetan Plateau, interior Borneo Afternoon/evening rainfall maxima over enclosed ocean basins Morning rainfall maxima along coastlines

Time of Maximum May-June Rainfall (1998-2007) Diurnally migrating or propagating convective features ~15 m s-1 ~10-15 m s-1 ~10 m s-1 ~13 m s-1 ~10-15 m s-1 Morning rainfall maxima

Morning precipitation, moves southward May-June 1998 (Aves and Johnson 2008) Morning precipitation, moves southward

N S N S Evening LLJ LLJ Morning Sea breeze South China Sea Some convection may move inland in the early morning and dissipate (Chan and Ng 1993) LLJ Land breeze or other effects? N S South China Sea Morning (Johnson 2006)

Summary SST pattern at summer monsoon onset leads to low-level convergence, precipitation over northern SCS; affects Mei-yu rainfall over Taiwan Three organizational modes of MCSs observed during 1998 SCSMEX: TS, LS, and PS Organization of convective systems determined by low and midlevel wind shear Prominent diurnal cycle of convection over northern SCS during summer monsoon onset characterized by southward propagation of MCSs from mainland China

Summer Monsoon Onset Dates (Tao and Chen 1987)

Diurnal Oscillations of 850-hPa Wind (May-June 1998) V 08 6 02 Hong Kong 08 LLJ: Inertial Oscillation 14 4 02 14 20 Dongsha Island 20 2 |v|850 at 0200 L at Hong Kong 2 4 6 U (m s-1)