MEETING THE CHALLENGE OF OUR TIME IN THE 21ST CENTURY More lectures at Disasters Supercourse - http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/collections/collection52.htm Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

CREATING PARADIGM SHIFTS THAT WILL ACCELERATE THE TRANSITION FROM BEING DISASTER PRONE TO BEING DISASTER RESILIENT

THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21ST CENTURY Protecting and preserving PEOPLE and COMMUNITIES from the potential disaster agents of natural hazards

A SNAPHOT OF OUR WORLD 7 billion people, and growing while… Living and competing in an interconnected global economy, Producing $60 trillion of products each year, and Facing complex disasters every year that can adversely impact a community’s 3 S’s, 5E’s, and 1H.

THE 3 S’s SAFETY (from the potential disaster agents of recurring natural hazards) SECURITY SUSTAINABILITY

THE FIVE E’s ECONOMY ENERGY ENVIRONMENT ECOLOGY EDUCATION

THE 1 H HEALTH CARE

A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that occur when three continuums: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods, earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the people and community are not ready.    

THE THREE CONTINUUMS OF EVERY DISASTER PEOPLE COMMUNITY RECURRING EVENTS (AKA the potential disaster agents of Natural Hazards, which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)

FIVE INTER-CONNECTED WEAK-LINKS CAUSE DISASTERS UN--PREPARED UN—PROTECTED UN---WARNED UN--ABLE TO RESPOND UN--RESILIENT

LIKELY CAUSES OF COMPLEX DISASTERS during THE 21ST CENTURY Increasing morbidity, mortality, homelessness, and economic losses from recurring natural hazards striking non-disaster-resilient communities Threats related to global climate change Environmental degradation and pollution of air, water, and soil Endangerment and extinction of plant and animal life

liKELY CAUSES OF COMPLEX DISASTERS during THE 21ST CENTURY Poverty Chronic hunger Health care needs Increasing risk of pandemic disease Large-scale migration of people Endangered plant and animal life Conflict and terrorism

AN UNDESIRABLE LEGACY OF THE 21ST CENTURY Before we realize it, we could share in an unnecessary and irreversible reduction in the quality of life on Planet Earth if we fail to design and implement a global strategy for disaster resilience.

THE “BEST SOLUTION SET” IS THE FRAMEWORK OF DISASTER RESILIENCE To anticipate and plan for the full spectrum of what can happen, and build capacity FOR preparedness, protection, early warning, emergency response, and recovery in every community. To inform, educate, train, and build equity in all sectors of the community,

WHEN YOU KNOW WHAT TO DO AND HOW TO DO IT, --- JUST DO IT! Communities working strategically can implement a realistic set of scientific, technical, and political solutions to reach the elusive goal of disaster resilience --- within EXISTING administrative, legal, and economic constraints, --- NOW.

STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS INTEGRATION OF SCIENCE AND PUBLIC POLICY THE ART AND SCIENCE OF CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT FOR COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE ENCOMPASSES STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS INTEGRATION OF SCIENCE AND PUBLIC POLICY PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, EARLY WARNING, EM. RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY

RECOVERY FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE ARE INTERCONNECTED PREPAREDNESS AND EARLY WARNING PROTECTION ALL ELEMENTS ARE INTERRELATED RECOVERY EMERGENCY RESPONSE

THE GLOBAL AGENDA: COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE EXPERIENCES WITH PREPAREDNESS EXPERIENCES WITH PROTECTION EXPAND PARTNERSHIPS FROM 1990 TO THE PRESENT (E.G., IDNDR, AND ISDR) GLOBAL BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE EXPERIENCES WITH EMERGENCY RESPONSE EXPERIENCES WITH RECOVERY

FACTORS THAT FACILITATE PARADIGM SHIFTS PUBLIC AWARENESS OF EACH PROBLEM AND THE BENEFIT/COSTS OF ITS SOLUTION SET. A COMMON AGENDA PROMOTED BY PARTNERSHIPS THROUGHOUT THE WORLD INCENTIVES FOR POLITICAL LEADERS AND SCIENTISTS TO ADOPT AND IMPLEMENT PUBLIC POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE.

CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE ISSUES POLICY CHANGE 1: FOCUS ON THE NATURE AND APPROPRIATENESS OF ACTIONS BY GLOBAL PARTNERS AND THE WAYS TO ENLIST SUPPORT AND RESOURCES FOR THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE.

CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE ISSUES POLICY CHANGE 2: FOSTER CHANGE BY INTEGRATING POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES FOR PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, EARLY WARNING, EMERGENCY RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY BASED ON EXISTING LEGAL MANDATES.

CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE ISSUES POLICY CHANGE 3: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PARTNERSHIPS UNTIL YOU CAN SOLVE THE PROBLEMS FACED BY LOCAL COMMUN ITIES IN EVERY REGION.

TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE TURNING POINTS: Partnerships for Preparedness, Protection, Early Warning Emergency Response, and Recovery THE KNOWLEDGE BASE CAPACITY BUILDING CONTINUING EDUCATION Best Practices for Mitigation and Adaptation Gateways to a Deeper Understanding Real and Near- Real Time Monitoring/Communication Vulnerability and Risk Characterization Anticipatory Actions for all Events and Situations Situation Data Bases Interfaces with all Real- and Near Real-Time Sources Cause & Effect Relationships Close Gaps in Knowledge and Implementation Seek out, Enlighten, and Enable “Partnerships” Transfer Ownership of the Knowledge Base Transfer Ownership of Emerging Technologies Move Towards A Disaster Intelligent Community Engage Partners in MMA Learning Experiences Enlighten Communities on Their Risks Build Strategic Equity Through “MMA” Scenarios Multiply “Partnerships” by Regioal/global Twinning Update Knowledge Bases After Each MMA Scenario

YOUR COMMUNITY COMMUNITY GOALS RISK ASSESSMENT ACCEPTABLE RISK HAZARD MAPS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK RISK DISASTER RESILIENCE YOUR COMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR: PREPAREDNESS, EARLY. WARNING, PROTECTION EM. RESPONSE RECOVERY COMMUNITY GOALS HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS