Scoping Workshop for the Upper Colorado River Basin Risk Assessment Scoping Workshop for the Upper Colorado River Basin NIDIS Pilot Carly Jerla Bureau of Reclamation Michael Hayes National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln

Components of Successful Drought Mitigation Plans Monitoring, early warning, and prediction Foundation of a drought mitigation plan Indices/indicators linked to impacts and triggers Risk and impact assessment Who and what is at risk and why? Mitigation and response Programs and actions to reduce future drought impacts Programs and actions during drought events Most drought plans contain only the monitoring and response components.

Risk Assessment Purpose To identify those sectors, population groups, or regions most at risk from drought, most probable impacts, and mitigation actions that will reduce impacts to future events.

How to Reduce Risk http://drought.unl.edu/handbook/risk.pdf Western Drought Coordination Council How to Reduce Risk Preparedness and Mitigation Working Group March 1998 Principal Authors: Cody Knutson, National Drought Mitigation Center Mike Hayes, Tom Phillips, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation http://drought.unl.edu/handbook/risk.pdf

Components of Drought Risk Assessment Hazard Vulnerability = x (natural event) (social factors) Where does the water come from? Who uses the water?

Hazard Assessment (Understanding Drought Characteristics) Review of all available climate resources Historical analyses: frequency, intensity, duration, spatial extent Temporal trends Review available natural resources Streamflow, reservoirs, stock tanks, groundwater, etc… Water use characteristics

Vulnerability Assessment Impact Assessment Social Environmental Economic Causal Assessment Temporal Trends

Impact Assessment Subcommittees Colorado Municipal Water Wildfire Protection Agricultural Industry Tourism Wildlife Economic Impacts Energy Loss Health

Impact Assessment Subcommittees Nebraska Agriculture, Natural Resources, and Wildlife Municipal Water Supply, Health, and Energy New Mexico Agriculture Drinking Water, Health, and Energy Wildlife and Wildfire Tourism and Economic Impact

Impact Assessment Subcommittees Hopi Nation Range and Livestock Agriculture Village Water Supplies Environmental Health

Challenges Risk: not all impacts are equal

Vulnerability to Agricultural Drought: State of Nebraska LEGEND Water, Urban, Forest, Wetland Low Low-to-Moderate Moderate High vulnerability Albers Equal Area Projection, NAD 27 Spatial Resolution: 200 m

Risk and Impact Lessons Stakeholders Reduces conflicts between water users Promotes support Helps identify areas, people, sectors at risk Vulnerability Dynamic (shifts with time) Look Back and Look Ahead Identify particular baselines Triggers for decision-making