Food Security Update 28 July 2016

The bulk of the country will in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) June to September 2016 October 2016 to January 2017

Lower than typical regional maize availability 2016-17 South Africa Zambia Carry over stocks 2.3 million Mt (mainly from imports) 2015-16 Production 7.73 million Mt (40% of ave) 2016-17 Deficit 1.6 million Mt Est. Exports 600,000 Mt Est. Imports 3.3 Million Mt (1ml Mt white, 2.2 MT yellow maize) Carry over stocks 667,500 Mt 2015-16 Production 2.87 million Mt (10% above 2015) 2016-17 Surplus 634,700 Mt Est. Exports 167,000 Mt to Spt (old contracts) Est. Imports 0 Mt

Higher than typical maize grain imports April-June 2016 maize imports (174,000 MT) are 62% higher than same time last year (107,000 MT) Of the April-June ‘16 imports, 45% from SA, 19% Zambia, the rest (36%) from international markets. Landing prices from international markets significantly higher than from regional markets

Projected higher than average maize grain prices for 2016-17 marketing season

Key Assumptions for the June 1’6 to Jan ‘17 Outlook Period Higher than normal cereal deficit – June 2016 to January 2017 Poor water availability: June to October Normal to above normal rains: November 2016 to March 2017 Maize grain prices: higher than last year and 5-year Maize meal prices: expected increase later in the consumption year Livelihoods options: below average (cash crop sales, livestock sales, agric & non-agric labor & self employment, remittances); also below average labor rates Acute malnutrition: high and increasing Inter-annual and emergency assistance: resource constraints

Critical water shortages in much of the south and marginal areas in the north to impact on livelihoods

Below average typical livelihoods and coping options