Student Entry Information Cumulative1 2nd Semester Academic Performance and Persistence of Washington State University Students Vicki A. McCracken, Professor, School of Economic Sciences Fran Hermanson, Associate Director, Institutional Research Abstract Improving student success in postsecondary education is a key federal, state, and university objective that is inseparable from the focus on increasing student access. In 2007, WSU appointed a Council to look at retention of WSU students and to develop plans to encourage student graduation. The Council used descriptive institutional data to make recommendations. This research builds on the work of the Council and uses statistical techniques to identify factors associated with retention and success of WSU students. Nationally, freshmen account for over a quarter of all attrition at 4-year public institutions (Tinto, 1993). The results presented here (part of the larger study) focus mainly on the 1st year experience and specifically identity variables that explain student success. Methodology Institutional data for 5 cohorts of students that entered WSU (Pullman) as new freshmen were available. Detail included information about the student prior to enrolling and then at the end of 1st semester, 1st year, and subsequent years. Success was measured by retention and GPA at key points in time and eventual graduation from WSU. Descriptive information provides a context for student success at WSU. Statistical techniques used account for the panel-nature of the data (cohorts of students followed over time) and the discreteness of one of the dependent variables (retained or not). Statistical tests indicate the importance of accounting for cohort (defined by the term that students entered) in the empirical model. Descriptive Information Selected Results Entry term % Retained to GPA Student Entry Information 2nd Semester 2nd Year 1st Semester Cumulative1 2nd Semester HS GPA SAT % Male % Residents 2003 .935 .837 2.86 2.94 3.43 1067 .46 .89 2004 .954 .846 2.84 2.92 3.45 1073 .48 2005 .818 2.81 2.88 1109 .50 .92 2006 .931 .839 2.74 2.90 1104 .90 2007 .939 .815 2.77 3.41 1111 .87 2008 - 3.48 1116 .49 1 GPA entering 2nd year. Explanatory Variables Explanatory variables (individual student basis) include information about Pell eligibility, race, gender, residency, high school GPA, standardized test score (SAT or equivalent), AP courses; and variables related to 1st semester or year in college, such as: Student Recreation Center usage whether a varsity athlete affiliation with Greek system or Honors College simultaneously taking biology/chemistry/math and an interest area in a STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) discipline. Variables Semester 1 GPA1 Retained2 Semester 2 GPA1 Rec Center .105** 1.01** .125** SSS .018** 3.01 .023** 1.64 Pell -.038** .77* .72** Race (white) .020** .78* 0.15* .93 Gender (male) -.069** 1.20* -.096** .94 Resident (WA) -.030** 1.38* -.026** 1.48** Athlete .054** 2.70** .050** 2.04** Greek -.003 1.74** .003 1.60** Honors .024** 1.89 .029** 1.23 High School GPA .424** 1.89** .440** 2.50** SAT .162** 1.00 .185** STEM -.108** 1.25* -.129** .97 Biochem math -.040** 2.06* -.050** AP .082** 1.83** .074** 1.50** Others *p<0.05 (2-tailed), **p<0.01 (2-tailed) 1 Results presented are the standardized or beta coefficients from the regression. 2 Results presented are the odds ratios from the logistic regression. Key Findings Persistence and performance in high school, measured by High School GPA, is the best single predictor of College GPA and increases the probability of retention (in a positive manner). Performance on standardized tests, SAT, is a solid (positive) predictor of College GPA but does not significantly impact the probability of retention. Higher Recreation Center usage is associated with higher College GPA and higher probability of retention (a result that continued beyond the first year). Varsity Athlete status increases the odds of a student being retained, and is linked to higher GPAs (all else the same). Federal Pell Grant eligibility is associated with lower College GPAs and probability of retention, indicating financial constraints negatively impact student success. Participation in the Student Support Services Programs increases College GPA but does not significantly impact retention. Students who take the science/engineering “trifecta” courses (Biology/Chemistry/Math) in the first semester and/or have a STEM interest area have significantly lower GPA but are more likely retained during their 1st and subsequent years at WSU. Implications All Retention and GPA models identify consistent and statistically significant predictors of success during the 1st year. However, a large amount of unexplained variation in success suggests that (for modeling purposes) additional variables need to be included. These results suggest an admission process selecting students based on individual potential for success should consider factors other than high school GPA and standardized test scores. Retention efforts should identify students based on other (than high school GPA and standardized test scores) risk factors. Retention at WSU starts to fall below its peers by the start of the 2nd year (at a level of .84 relative to .89 in 2006, CSRDE1). Additional research is underway to identify other risk factors, using more information on the total financial aid package of students, characteristics of the high school attended, self reported expectations of preparedness and difficulties expected in college (BCSSE), SAT writing score…and more. 1 Consortium for Student Retention Data Exchange (CSRDE), University of Oklahoma Reference Tinto, V. 1993. Leaving College: Rethinking the Causes and Cures of Student Attrition (2nd edition). Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.