Forest and water in changing climate - Project proposal Forest and water in changing climate - Impacts of climate change on water discharge as a key ecosystem function in different (mountainous) catchments in Europe European Environment Agency Josef Herkendell Project manager biodiversity and climate change impacts

Mountainous catchment (Alps)

Mountainous catchment (Norway)

Virtual water catchment Runoff changes P(t) Precipitation changes Temperature changes Land use EP(t) R(t) Proposed size of the water catchment Source: FAO Land and water bulletin 1/1993

Human versus natural impacts on watershed processes: a matter of scale HIGHER LIMITED MICRO-WATERSHED (less than 50 km²) MESO-WATERSHED (50 to 20 000 km²) MACRO-WATERSHED (bigger than 20 000 km²) H U M A N IMPACT Proposed size: less than 500 km² ? N A T U R A L IMPACT LIMITED HIGHER Source: Based on G. Ives and B. Messerli, 1989. The Himalayan dilemma. Reconciling development and conservation. London and New York, Routledge

Questions to be answered by project Overall targets Test ing an integrated environmental assessment approach to better understand the functions and services of different land uses in catchments Assessing and mapping the multiple functions of different land uses in catchments ( Reality check ) Variation over Europe Selecting those functions to be shown as the most relevant ones for optimising quality of habitats and water discharge Testing the response behaviour on the impact of extreme weather events based past data with regional CC scenarios Vulnerability check Adaptive capacity of the different functions?/limitations? (reality check on the basis of regional CC scenarios and/or observed impacts of extreme weather events) Current and actual adaptation observations and processes Possible recommendations for optimising land-use management

Proposed selection criteria for water catchments in the frame of this project: Size: 50 to 500 km², one of each bio-geographical region Physical and bio-geographical data and information on actual land-use/changes in land-use ±Even distribution of land-uses protected areas, forests and agriculture East-West/West-East direction of the river flow (±20°), preferably Full discharge information quantity/quality for the catchment Forest growth; Carbon stored; etc. Information on weather extremes in the past 30 years (either drought, extreme precipitation)

Additional information and data needs for each catchment: High density of additional information on ecosystems, preferably long-time series, ▪ Protected areas ▪ Forest ▪ Agriculture ▪ ( other relevant socio-economic information)?

Changes in runoff in Central Alps (Hirham RCM) Source: Martin Beniston, University of Geneva, Switzerland

Examples of recent and projected runoff regime Biogeographic regions of Europe Arctic Boreal Atlantic Continental Alpine Panonian Mediterranean Steppic Black Sea Anatolian Indalsaelven (Bergeforens) Dischmabach (Davos) Rhone (Chancy) Guadiana (Pulo do Lobo) Source: Zierl et al. 2004, Dankers and Feyen, 2008

Alpine runoff regime Example Dischma valley, 2051 - 2080 ? = weather extremes, flood, drought ? possible minimum discharge (drought) Source: Zierl et al. 2004

Multifunctionality of water catchments and their services For all cases: average development for the last 30 years Functions Land uses Water discharge Biodiversity C-storage Culture aspects/ landscape Protection of infrastructure Income Forests Agriculture Infrastructure ?

Multifunctionality of water catchments in Europe Vulnerability check: Impacts of extreme weather events in the past 30 years and climate change impacts in recent years (if available) Functions Land uses Water discharge Biodiversity C-storage Culture aspects/ landscape Protection of infrastructure Income Forests Agriculture Infrasructure ?

Selection of catchments on the basis of forest covered water catchments Biogeographic regions of Europe Arctic Boreal Atlantic Continental Alpine Panonian Mediterranean Steppic Black Sea Anatolian ? Mountainous Northern Europe (No, Swe, Fin) Less snow, lake and river cover Increased river flows ? Highlands in Scotland Increase of winter precipitation Increased river flows ? Central and Eastern Europe medium range mountains (F, D, Cz) Less summer precipitation More river floods in winter ? ? ? High mountain areas (Alps, Carpathians) High temperature increase Less glacier mass Less mountain oermafrost ? ? ? Mountainous Mediterranean region Decrease in annual precipitation Decrease in annual river flow Less energy by hydropower ? (?) Source: EEA Report No 4/2008, p.19

Questions to be answered for each case study: How do the ecosystem services vary? Do the different land-uses full fill the multiple functions of ecosystems in catchments differntly? Which conclusions can be taken from the information on past extreme weather events? Which recent impacts related to climate change can be observed? Which conclusion need to be drawn in terms of recommendations for the future management of water catchments in different bio-geographical regions in Europe?

Thank you for your attention and your contribution! josef.herkendell@eea.europa.eu