Chapter 7 Public Opinion

Source of Public Opinion Political socialization refers to the factors that shape our political opinions. These include family, friends, education, gender, race, religion, and major life events. Party identification has become the most reliable predictor of public opinion in recent years. Self interest and political elites also influence political attitudes. How issues are framed can shift individual and collective views. Dramatic events, especially wars, also have a powerful role in shaping our opinions.

Measuring Public Opinion Scientific surveys have come a long way since their origins in 1936. Professionals now design well-specified polls that capture popular views with a high degree of accuracy. Indeed, poll results can affect public opinion, in ways ranging from the bandwagon effect to the underdog effect. Sampling errors, response bias, and other potential flaws inevitably confer a measure of uncertainty on any survey.

Public Opinion in a Democracy Since the founding era, some Americans have viewed public opinion as an unreliable, even dangerous, guide to government policymaking based in part on voter ignorance. Others argue that, in practice, a “rational public” is the best source of democratic decision-making. One way to combine these clashing views is to focus not on what individuals know about politics but on how many different popular views add up to the “wisdom of crowds.”

Public Opinion and Governing If public opinion is to guide politics, three conditions must be met: the public must know what it wants, its views must be effectively communicated, and leaders must pay attention. Even strong public opinion may not be specific enough to offer policy guidance. U.S. government officials devote more resources to polling operations than do top officials in other nations. All government officials constantly have to weigh doing what they think is best against doing what the public desires. Popular views can help set governing agendas. Polls often guide officials not in selecting a policy, but in determining how best to win over the public to their policies.