STATUS of Global Producing Center - Beijing Peiqun Zhang (zhangpq@cma.gov.cn)   Beijing Climate Center, CMA, Beijing, 100081 Meeting of the joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS, 10-14 March 2014, Exeter, UK

Current system BCC CM1.0 (BCC AGCM1.1 & CGCM1.1) Atmos: T63 (~180km), 16 vertical levels Ocean: IAP/BCC OGCM, Grid 1.875°x1.875°, 30 vertical levels LRF SST:1-tier method; Daily flux adjustment coupled Ens gen: Atm-LAF(last 8 daily GloAna of each month) Oce-BCC GODAS1.0 (6 Perturbation by the end of each month) Forecast: 48 members to 7-11 months (run before 15th every month) Hindcast: 1982-2003 (22 years) ERF SST:2-tier method; latest weekly SST persisted anomaly Ens gen: LAF(00h 06h 12h 18h GloAna of each day) SVD(4 Perturbation each day) Forecast: 8 members run to 45 days each day: 40 members (over 5 days) Meeting of the joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS, 10-14 March 2014, Exeter, UK

2nd Climate Model System (Exp. Op Dec. 2013): BCC_CSM1 (AGCM+AVIM+OGCM+SIS) BCC AGCM2.2:T42L26->T106L26 (~110km) Originated from CAM3, Improved Dynamics: Wu et al.(2008, J.Atmos.Sci.) and Physics：Wu et al. (2010, Climate Dynamics): Deep convection：modified Zhang and Mu (2005) scheme . Dry Adiabatic Snow cover fraction parameterization (Wu T. and Wu G., 2004) Sensible and latent flux parameterization on the ocean- Atmosphere interface are modified. A new cumulus convective parameterization scheme Wu (2012: Climate Dynamics) MOM4_L40v2 Originated from MOM4 developed by GFDL, Tri-pole gridpoints 1º×1º, 1/3º meridionally in tropics,40 vertical layers, coupled with a carbon cycle module (from OCMIP2) with simple biogeochemical processes. BCC AVIM1.0 Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer module (a multi-layer snow-soil scheme same as NCAR CLM3) with Snow Cover Fraction scheme (sub-grid topography), Vegetation growth module, Soil carbon decomposition module, Land use change scheme (crop planting area) SIS From Sea Ice Simulator (SIS) developed by GFDL. Same resolution with oceanic GCM. 3 vertical layers, including 1 snow cover and 2 sea ice layers of equal thickness. Involving the Elastic–Viscous–Plastic dynamic process and Semtner’s thermodynamic process. Meeting of the joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS, 10-14 March 2014, Exeter, UK

Configuration of System: Model ERF: BCC_AGCM2.2(T106L26) LRF: BCC_CSM1.1-m (BCC_AGCM2.2 + BCC_AVIM1.0 + MOM4_L40v2 + SIS) Initialization Atm: CMA NWP analysis for Forecast & NCEP Reanalysis for Hindcast Ocean and Sea Ice: BCC-GODAS2.0 for LRF & latest weekly SST persisted anomaly for ERF Land: BCC-AVIM1.0 Generation of Ensemble Member: ERF: LAF(00h 06h 12h 18h) 4 members run to 45 days each day. 20 members (over 5 days) ensemble for 6 times per month LRF: 24 members to 8-13 months (run before 15th every month) (1) LAF/15 samples: 5 atmos IC (interval 12hr) from NMC/CMA analysis, and 3 Ocean IC from BCC GODAS2.0 (2) Singular Vector forecast: 9 samples Hindcast: 1991-2013 Meeting of the joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS, 10-14 March 2014, Exeter, UK

Support of RCCs, NMHSs and RCOFs Products Dissemination Graphical products disseminated freely at BCC website: http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/en_md.php for ERF http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/en_cs.php for LRF Digital data (seasonal forecast and hindcast) download on request at: http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/nccdownload/en_cgcm.php for registered user  Digital forecast and hindcast outputs also sent to WMOLC- LRFMME routinely Users LC-LRFMME, APCC, RCC (Beijing) NMHSs (China and partner countries in RA II) to support operational activities of seasonal prediction to assist decision-making of governmental agencies/sectors user for agriculture and risk management of flood and drought, etc. RCOF (FOCRAII, SASCOF, EASCOF, etc. through RCC) http://bcc.cma.gov.cn/bcccsm/htm/ Meeting of the joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS, 10-14 March 2014, Exeter, UK

2nd Generation 1st Generation Obs from IRI Meeting of the joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS, 10-14 March 2014, Exeter, UK 13-11-25-27

Products Developing: MJO & BSISO RMM Indice BSISO： Indice 8d 12-13d Model: BCCCSM 1.1m (couple model) T106 Design: 2001–2010 (10 years) Jan–Dec (12 months) total 120 samples Initialization: 2 month nudging (NCEP) Start time: 00Z Forecast: 1 month Output: Wind, TMP, PREC, OLR, Shum(DAILY) POST: Horizontal and vertical interpolation Meeting of the joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS, 10-14 March 2014, Exeter, UK

(1)EOF result from NCEP vs BCC CSM1.1m BCC-CGCM

MJO Temp-Spat Spectrum (2)Performance of BCC CSM1.1m on MJO & BSISO MJO Temp-Spat Spectrum NCEP-OLR EOF1+2: 26% BCC-CGCM T106 - OLR EOF1+2: 18% BSISO

GPC Beijing Available Products (additional) Variables: Precip., Ts., SST, (OLR…) Circulation: H500, U/V200, U/V850, T Index: Nino, IOD, EASMI, Subtropical High, …… Resolution: Precip/Ts/SST: 2.5x2.5  1.0x1.0 Circulation: 2.5x2.5 (enough?) Frequency: Daily/Pentad for ERF Monthly for LRF(Seasonal) Leadtime: 10-30 days  10-50 days 1-3months (1 seasonal forecast)  4-9months (2-3 seasonal forecast) Meeting of the joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS, 10-14 March 2014, Exeter, UK

Ongoing Work Operational seasonal climate prediction using BCC_CSM1.1m (~ 110 km) Verification Products Developing Developing high resolution version BCC_CSM2.0 Meeting of the joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS, 10-14 March 2014, Exeter, UK

Upgrades of System: BCC_CSM1 (AGCM+AVIM+OGCM+SIS)BCC_CSM2 BCC AGCM2.2:T42L26->T106L26 (~110km)  BCC AGCM3.0: T266 (~45km) Originated from CAM3, Improved Dynamics: Wu et al.(2008, J.Atmos.Sci.) and Physics：Wu et al. (2010, Climate Dynamics): Deep convection：modified Zhang and Mu (2005) scheme . Dry Adiabatic Snow cover fraction parameterization (Wu T. and Wu G., 2004) Sensible and latent flux parameterization on the ocean- Atmosphere interface are modified. A new cumulus convective parameterization scheme Wu (2012: Climate Dynamics) MOM4_L40v2  MOM4_L50 Originated from MOM4 developed by GFDL, Tri-pole gridpoints 1º×1º, 1/3º meridionally in tropics,40 vertical layers, coupled with a carbon cycle module (from OCMIP2) with simple biogeochemical processes. BCC AVIM1.0  BCC AVIM2.0 Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer module (a multi-layer snow-soil scheme same as NCAR CLM3) with Snow Cover Fraction scheme (sub-grid topography), Vegetation growth module, Soil carbon decomposition module, Land use change scheme (crop planting area) SIS  CICE From Sea Ice Simulator (SIS) developed by GFDL. Same resolution with oceanic GCM. 3 vertical layers, including 1 snow cover and 2 sea ice layers of equal thickness. Involving the Elastic–Viscous–Plastic dynamic process and Semtner’s thermodynamic process. Meeting of the joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS, 10-14 March 2014, Exeter, UK

Thank you for your attention Meeting of the joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS, 10-14 March 2014, Exeter, UK 13-11-25-27