Model Team Presentations – Science Goals, Model Capabilities ATom 1st Science Team Meeting 22-24 Jul 2015 Model Team Presentations – Science Goals, Model Capabilities Global Chemical Models – Global modeling, Representativeness, and Integrated Products (GRIPs) Michael Prather (UC Irvine CTM) Sarah Strode & Jose Rodriguez (NASA GEOS-CCM & GEOS-CCM) Jean-Francois Lamarque (NCAR CESM/CAM5) Arlene Fiore & Lee Murray* (GEOS-Chem & GFDL AM3) Flight Forecasts & Back Trajectory Footprints Eric Ray (NOAA/CIRES & FLEXPART)

It’s a wild and crazy world out there: Atmospheric Rivers (from the ECMWF T319 forecast model) 16 Jan2005 In the real world it may be even crazier (fine grained) (from NOAA ESRL) 15 Jul 2010

? It’s a wild and crazy world out there: Rivers of CH4 Loss (UCI CTM run w/ECMWF T319 forecast) 16 Jan2005 In the real world it may be even crazier ?

There is a lot of structure and variability in key species NOx (snapshots on the 720 hPa surface) NOx Probability Distributions vary considerably between Pacific & Atlantic basins

Joint Probability Distributions = excellent model diagnostic O3 vs. CO (courtesy of TRACE-P 2001 ) CTM Hindcast following flight tracks looks OK

? Why do we care about Representativeness? need to develop and test the Chemistry-Climate Models Chemical climatology for region does not match ?

From the models we take a single day (~16 Aug) simulations with 4-D gridded quantities: (I=longitude grid, J=latitude grid, K = layer 0-13 km, N = species index) Basic Cell Data: 1    Air in each cell (moles) 2   Strat-trop tracer (e90, O3, or PV) Derived Products (mole fraction / day) 20 L-CH4 (OH+CH4, scaled to 1800 ppb) 21  P-O3 (HO2/RO2 + NO only) 22 L-O3 (O1d+H2O, OH+O3, HO2+O3 only) 23 O3(24h) – O3(00h), true dO3/dt 24 J(O1D) (/day) 25 J(NO2) (/day) 26 SULF = sulfate formation (OH+SO2) 28 SOAF = SOA formation (OH + VOCs) Initialized Tracer Species: (all in mole fraction) 3    O3           4    NOx = NO+NO2 5   HONO2        6   HO2NO2 7   C2H3NO5 = PAN 8   RONO2   (if any)      9   H2O2      10   CH3OOH       11   HCHO        12  C2H5OOH     13  CH3CHO  = acetaldehyde 14  C3H6O = acetone 15  CO 16   C2H6       17   Alkane (>C2)  18  Alkene       19  C5H8 = Isoprene  For UCI T319, an ATom slice of 60S-60N x 0-12km has 27x 212 = 5724 air parcels

From the models we take a single day (~16 Aug) simulations with 4-D gridded quantities: (I=longitude grid, J=latitude grid, K = layer 0-13 km, N = species index) UCI CTM capabilities: UCI trop chemistry (ASAD) 30+ species UCI strat chemistry (Linoz) ECMWF forecasts (3 hr avg) at resolution of 60 km lat-long (T319) and ~0.5 km vertical (L=1:28 for 0-12+ km) only for Yr 2005 Cy36 ECMWF OpenIFS data (2005-2014, expect 2015– generated by U. Oslo collaboration with Isaksen, Sovde, Myhre resolution T159L60 Cy38r1 (1.1°) Do not expect hindcast capability within 9-month window of data release.

high NOx in winter, low NOx low sun, low reactivity in tropics UCI: 60S-60N x 0-12km x 1°(@180W) Jan16 sorted by NOx (to be switched to Aug 16) Frequency of NOx (sorted by abundance with 10 bins per decade) plotted as air mass (Peta-moles) in the 1° wide tomographic slice with the range of NOx. For UCI here, all NOx falls between 2 and 400 ppt, most lies in 30-100 ppt range, a second peak at 4 ppt. high NOx in winter, low sun, low reactivity low NOx in tropics

UCI: 60S-60N x 0-12km x 1°(@180W) Jan16 sorted by NOx (to be switched to Aug 16) Reactivities – PO3, LO3, LCH4 (in Mega-moles/day) – plotted as a function of NOx. Y-axis shows the amount of Mmoles/day in that bin (10-bins per decade in NOx ppt). PO3 peaks at high-NOx air masses. The low-NOx (4 ppt) is important for L-CH4 & L-O3. LCH4 x 2 (Mmol/d)

PO3 is almost linear in NOx, only slightly sensitive to H2O2. UCI: 60S-60N x 0-12km x 1°(@180W) Jan16 sorted by NOx (to be switched to Aug 16) Reactivities – linearity with NOx. Recalculate reactivity with 1.1*NOx and scale the increase in reactivity (x10), plot again. PO3(lin-NOx) = [PO3(1.1*NOx) – PO3(std NOx)] x 10 and plot vs PO3(std NOx) (Also done for H2O2, but ignore the ‘+’s here.) PO3 is almost linear in NOx, only slightly sensitive to H2O2.

LCH4 has some response to NOx @ hi-NOx, much less sensitive to H2O2. UCI: 60S-60N x 0-12km x 1°(@180W) Jan16 sorted by NOx (to be switched to Aug 16) Reactivities – linearity with NOx. Recalculate reactivity with 1.1*NOx and scale the increase in reactivity (x10), plot again. PO3(lin-NOx) = [PO3(1.1*NOx) – PO3(std NOx)] x 10 and plot vs PO3(std NOx) (Also done for H2O2, but ignore the ‘+’s here.) LCH4 has some response to NOx @ hi-NOx, much less sensitive to H2O2.

UCI: 24S-24N x 2-8km x 1°(@180W) Jan16 sorted by H2O2 H2O2 sorted in smaller tropical domain: 0.1 to 2 ppb, interesting shape

UCI: 24S-24N x 2-8km x 1°(@180W) Jan16 sorted by H2O2 H2O2 sorted in smaller tropical domain: 0.1 to 2 ppb, interesting shape Reactivities have similar pattern, PO3 shifted to lower H2O2 (higher NOx).

AIR: global vs tropical Pacific Joint PDFs all for UCI CTM for global (60-60, 0-12km) vs tropical Pacific (20-20, 0-12km) Example of NOx vs. CO, plotting relative amount of total in log-log pixels AIR: global vs tropical Pacific ½ - 12km ½ - 12km

shows up when weighted by PO3 ! Joint PDFs : global (60-60, 0-12km, 0°-360°) vs tropical Pacific (20-20, 0-12km, 140°-220°) Example of NOx vs CO, plotting relative amount of total in log-log pixels overflow, >1,000 ppb shows up when weighted by PO3 ! PO3: global vs tropical Pacific ½ - 12km ½ - 12km

L-O3: global vs tropical Pacific Joint PDFs for global (60-60, 0-12km) vs tropical Pacific (20-20, 0-12km, 140°-220°) Example of NOx x CO, plotting relative amount of total in log-log pixels L-O3: global vs tropical Pacific ½ - 12km ½ - 12km

L-CH4: global vs tropical Pacific Joint PDFs for global (60-60, 0-12km) vs tropical Pacific (20-20, 0-12km, 140°-220°) Example of NOx x CO, plotting relative amount of total in log-log pixels L-CH4: global vs tropical Pacific ½ - 12km ½ - 12km 0.78 ppb/day 1.01 ppb/day

Joint PDFs: (20S-20N x 140°-220° x 0-13 km) GEOS-CHem (Murray) vs. UCI CTM << AIR >> << P-O3 >>

Joint PDFs: (20S-20N x 140°-220° x 0-13 km) GEOS-CHem vs. UCI CTM << AIR >> << L-CH4 >>