Presidential Primaries Profile Although the campaigning has already begun, the 2016 Presidential Election officially starts with the Iowa Caucus for both parties Monday, February 1, and then the New Hampshire primary the next week, Tuesday, February 9. Important primary dates include Tuesday, March 1, so-called “Super Tuesday,” voting or caucuses in 12 states; Tuesday, March 15 in major states, such as Florida, Ohio and Illinois; and the last primary Tuesday, June 14 in the District of Columbia. According to political observers, commentators and pundits, Hilary Clinton will win often and early to solidify the Democratic nomination while the likely Republican nominee won’t be identified until much further into the primary season.

TV Wins Every Election Estimates for total political ad spending during 2016 range from a low of $6 billion from a Wall Street analyst to $11.4 billion from Borrell Associates, but they all agree that TV is where the most money will be spent for all levels of elections. The Wall Street analyst projects $4 billion going to television while The Cook Political Report estimates $4.4 billion, or an increase of $500 million from 2012, with virtually all of it earmarked for the presidential election. The Cook Political Report forecasts $3.3 billion of the $4.4 billion will be spent on local broadcast TV and $800 million on local cable TV.

The Politician in Us All According to the April 2015 Keller Fay TVB American Conversation Study, 46% of all political conversations is based on news/information people saw on TV. Digital content was half, at 23%; print, 14%; and radio 9%. The study also found that 79% of those surveyed said they were most likely to trust news from local TV stations, compared to 62% from cable news. More than 80% of Democrats trusted local TV stations and Republicans 80%. Local broadcast, at 33%, was the #1 source referenced in political conversations; followed by national broadcast, 31%; cable, 29%; and other, 7%.

Seeking Digital Supporters Of the $6 billion the Wall Street analyst estimated would be spent on all 2016 political advertising, $650 million will go to the digital channel while Borrell Associates forecasts more than $1.1 billion, or a 700-percent increase from the 2012 election. Another source predicts social media will receive approximately half of all 2016 online political spending. Because videos have become so popular since the 2012 election, YouTube, Facebook and other video-heavy sites are expected to feature many ads. Snapchat is aggressively seeking political ad dollars, as data from the site indicated that 67 percent of the millions of Millennials on Snapchat are likely to vote. Another poll found that 63 percent of Snapchat users were closely following the campaigns.

Millennials Lean Left The data seems to support a disconnect between the policy positions of the Republican Party and Millennials. For example, more than 70% support the Affordable Care Act and 67% the right of the LGBTQ population to marry. According to Pew Research Center, only 15% of Millennials consider themselves conservatives, compared to 34% for their parents, and 50% of Millennials are more likely to consider themselves Democrats versus 34% Republicans. Another challenge for Republican candidates is that Millennials are the most diverse generation ever, with 57% European Americans, compared to 72% of Baby Boomers, meaning 43 percent of Millennials are of other ethnicities.

Leveraging Latino American Voters Latino Americans are 13% of all eligible voters; however, they will represent 40% of the increase in eligible voters from 2012 to 2030. In Florida, an important electoral state, Latinos are expected to be 20.2% of all eligible voters for 2016. Since George Bush received 40% of the Latino vote during the 2004 election, their support of Republican presidential candidates has declined, with 31% voting for John McCain (2008) and 23% for Mitt Romney (2012). Numerous sources estimate that the Republican nominee for president will require 42% to 47% of all Latino American votes to win the 2016 election.

Advertising Strategies Although the three primary news broadcasts – early morning, evening and late – will receive most of the political ad dollars, politicians and issue groups can also effectively reach the electorate during primetime and sports broadcasts. Help your non-political clients’ TV advertising from being drowned by political ads by not scheduling spots during the two to three weeks prior to the primary caucus or voting date. Help political candidates and issue groups to identify programming where they can reach Millennials, Latinos and other specific demographic targets. Suggest a call-to-action to drive viewers to social media sites with video content that could attract more Millennials.

Social Media Strategies Videos are an essential digital channel tool for all political advertisers, as it allows them to craft different messages to engage with different audiences. Videos of candidates involved in their communities will have more resonance than simply a “talking-head” message. Although not scientific, political candidates can use social media during active campaigning to ask visitors their opinions on the most-important issues and to participate in polls. Again, videos of people expressing their thoughts will be more engaging than text. Political advertisers must be particularly aware of younger voters’ short attention spans (10 to 15 seconds or less) and create content that is relevant and engaging within that limited time window. The presentation of content must also be compatible with phone screens.