Unit 3: Global Challenge and Change: Topic: World Population Trends

Year & Population… wowzers 1650 - 500 million 1750 - 700 million 1804 - 1 billion 1850 - 1.2 billion 1900 - 1.6 billion 1927 - 2 billion 1950 - 2.55 billion 1955 - 2.8 billion 1960 - 3 billion 1965 - 3.3 billion 1970 - 3.7 billion 1975 - 4 billion 1980 - 4.5 billion 1985 - 4.85 billion 1987 - 5 billion 1990 - 5.3 billion 1995 - 5.7 billion 1999 - 6 billion 2000 - 6.1 billion 2005 - 6.45 billion 2010 - 6.8 billion 2011 - 7 billion 2020 - 7.6 billion 2027 - 8 billion? 2030 - 8.2 billion 2040 - 8.8 billion 2046 - 9 billion? It had taken all of human history (well, we don’t know what the world was like pre-4000 years ago) until around 1800 for world population to reach one billion, the second billion was achieved in only 130 years (1930), the third billion in less than 30 years (1959), the fourth billion in 15 years (1974), and the fifth billion in only 13 years (1987). During the 20th century alone, the population in the world has grown from 1.65 billion to 6 billion.

Top Twenty most populated cities in the world:

How Fast is the World Population Growing Right Now? Growing at a rate of around 1.10% per year. Annual growth rate reached its peak in the late 1960s, when it was a little above 2%. Rate of increase almost halved since its peak of 2.19 percent, which was reached in 1963, to the current 1.15%. The annual growth rate is currently declining Projected to continue to decline in the coming years, Pace of the future change is uncertain. Currently, estimated it will become less than 1% by 2020 and less than 0.5% by 2050. Yet, world pop. will continue to grow in the 21st century, but at a slower rate compared to the recent past. World population has doubled (100% increase) in 40 years from 1959 (3 billion) to 1999 (6 billion). It is now estimated that it will take a further 42 years to increase by another 50%, to become 9 billion by 2042.

Contemporary Picture World pop. – at current rate – increases by 1 billion every 13 years! 80 million people each year According to pop. stats. the world’s pop. may soon be correcting itself Global avg number of children is 2.5 per family but dropping Fertility rates tend to decrease when countries get richer and when women receive higher levels of education People tend to have fewer children when they live in cities and more in country

Big Picture Population growing Rate decreasing Women having fewer children (overall) Population (generally) is aging Trend is occurring in both developed and developing world

About those terms developed/developing… “Developing” or “Countries in transition” Former Soviet countries (Eastern Europe), “stan” countries in Central Asia, select South American and African nations Lower living standard, undeveloped industrial base, and low Human Development Index (HDI) a compound indicator of the above statistics, to gauge the level of human development for countries income per capita (per person) (GDP), life expectancy, the rate of literacy/education, health care, etc. Developing countries are in general countries which have not achieved a significant degree of industrialization relative to their populations, and which have, in most cases a medium to low standard of living. FYI: There is a strong correlation between low income and high population growth.

Developed/Developing… undeveloped A developed country is one that allows all its citizens to enjoy a free and healthy life in a safe environment. Kofi Annan More objectively (and economically), countries with highest income per capita (GDP), level of industrialization, high HDI In common practice, Japan, Canada, United States, Australia, New Zealand, and Western Europe, are considered "developed" regions or areas There is no established convention, i.e., no universally agreed definition And there is criticism that the terms imply superiority or inferiority based on a limited number of factors “Undeveloped country,” (low HDI score) not a term often used, are at the bottom of stats… typically not a great place to live DRC, Niger, Burundi, Haiti

World Map: HDI index      High   Medium   Low

Why is it that the poorest countries have the highest fertility rates? Poverty increases the likelihood of having many children, trapping families and countries in a hard-to-stop cycle Poverty cycle = poor families become impoverished for at least three generations, i.e. for enough time that the family includes no surviving ancestors who possess and can transmit the intellectual, social, and cultural capital necessary to stay out of or change their impoverished condition.

Fertility & Fecundity Very important aspects of life for individuals and society E.g., as family size decreases and fertility rates decline, it becomes more expensive for taxpayers to pay for social programs (health care, welfare, pensions, etc.) Changes in fertility have a profound effect on our society Increasing birth rate MAY result in overpopulation, increased likelihood of starvation, drain on resources, e.g., water & food supplies

Fertility & Fecundity cont… Refers to actual reproduction. A woman is fertile if she has born, or is bearing, offspring Fecundity: Denotes the ability to reproduce. Once a girl reaches menarche (first menstrual cycle), she is fecund.

Fertility Rates Definition: The actual number of children had by women Can be affected by physical and environmental factors as well as social and cultural factors

World Fertility Rate

Country Comparison 95% of all the world’s population growth today is in the “developing” world Nearly half of their population is under the age of 15 Niger at 7.52, Uganda at 6.65 Japan at 1.39, Germany at 1.41, Australia at 1.77 Deaths may very well outnumber births Of all the “developed” countries, only U.S. is at replacement level (2.1-ish # of births required to maintain stable population)… but barely All developed countries growing from immigration alone

Why has there been such a change in fertility rates, particularly in developed/developing nations? A lot of factors: 1 - Change of marriage (and divorce) rates divorce rates have increased greatly since the introduction of Divorce Laws in 1968 43.1% of marriages expected to end in divorce before 50th W.A. 2 (minor reason… but interesting) - Increase in infertility: Infertile = when a couple have been trying to conceive for over one year unsuccessfully Estimated 1/5 couples in Canada Why? Rapid spread of sexually transmitted diseases Decline in sperm counts in men in developed countries Half of what they were 60 years ago… say huh? Perhaps due to high levels of estrogen in water supply From where?... Oral contraceptives… you got it… The Pill And from other chemicals, plastics that mimic the action of female sex hormone, raising the level of estrogen

Why cont… 3 – Contraceptives 4 – Education Substantial increase in contraceptives since late 1960s Initially in developed (West) and quickly in developing (Latin America, Asia and Africa) Contraceptive technologies more readily available worldwide, more affordable, less stigmatized, 4 – Education Education correlates with smaller families Countries in which more children are enrolled in school—even at the primary level—tend to have strikingly lower fertility rates

From Earth-Policy.org Female education is especially important. Research consistently shows that women who are empowered through education tend to have fewer children and have them later. If and when they do become mothers, they tend to be healthier and raise healthier children, who then also stay in school longer. They earn more money with which to support their families, and contribute more to their communities’ economic growth. Indeed, educating girls can transform whole communities

Why cont… 5 - Change of social expectations and values regarding family and home Desire to have children, view of children as infringing on freedom Couples in developed countries (married or not) have fewer children Trend for women to delay motherhood, often to establish careers Many women having babies in 30s rather than in their 20s More than 1/3 of all babies born in Canada are from women in their 30s Decrease in fertility rates because women’s fertility declines considerably as they age Older you are less likely you become pregnant and less time to have multiple births Biological clock ticking…