Meeting Objectives Discuss proposed CISM structure and activities Focus on development of RSQSim as a forecasting tool Review status of RSQSim platform development Physical modeling Computational issues Agree on first-year RSQSim objectives Statistical models to guide empirical UCERF End-to-end physics-based forecasting Organize RSQSim-related activities Working group structure Software access issues Year-1 development schedule

Collaboratory for Interseismic Simulation and Modeling (CISM) Project Goal Develop a collaboratory where interdisciplinary teams can create system- specific models for time-dependent earthquake forecasting that are comprehensive, physics-based, data-calibrated, and prospectively testable Physics-based simulations Ground Motions Ground Motion Simulator extended ERF CyberShake synthetic seismograms Earthquake Rupture Simulator RSQsim Intensity Measures Ground-Motion Prediction Eqn Earthquake Rupture Forecast Empirical models UCERF3 NGA GMPEs response spectra Comprehensive forecast

Collaboratory for Interseismic Simulation and Modeling (CISM) (funded for period 2015.07-2018.07 by a $2M grant from W.M. Keck Foundation) Develop a collaboratory where interdisciplinary teams can create system- specific models for time-dependent earthquake forecasting that are comprehensive, physics-based, data calibrated, and prospectively testable Develop rupture simulators and ground-motion simulators using California as the primary test bed Combine time-dependent earthquake rupture forecasting models with ground motion prediction models to forecast exceedance probabilities Test models in CSEP and by other means (e.g., using virtual earthquakes) Develop a high-performance, workflow-oriented cyberinfrastructure that facilitates model verification, simulation, validation, and data assimilation Provide researchers with advanced tools for integrating heterogeneous sets of scientific software modules into testable forecasting models Maintain a high-performance computing environment in which system-level models can be rapidly executed and analyzed Initiate WMKF Fellowships in Earthquake Forecasting Research Sponsor CISM participation of early-career scientists

Collaboratory for Interseismic Simulation and Modeling (CISM) Cyberinfrastructure Objective Implement a high-performance, workflow-oriented cyberinfrastructure that supports research on comprehensive physics-based forecasting models by facilitating earthquake simulation and data assimilation

CISM Structural Elements – Year 1 RSQSim Platform CyberShake Platform RSQS1 RSQS2 RSQSn . RSQSim CyberShake UCERF-TD UCERF-TI UCERF-ETAS UCERF3 NGA GMPEs OpenSHA Platform

CISM Validation Datasets – Year 1 Earthquake Rupture Forecasting Ground Motion Prediction RSQS1 RSQS2 RSQSn . RSQSim CyberShake Retrospective testing: Historical seismograms Fragile geologic features Retrospective testing: Historical seismic catalogs Paleoseismic model catalogs Prospective testing: Intensity measurements ShakeMap observations Virtual earthquakes UCERF-TD UCERF-TI UCERF-ETAS UCERF3 NGA GMPEs Prospective testing: CSEP data sets, Calif. and elsewhere

CISM ERF Objectives – Year 1 Develop formats for exchanging data across the ERF  GMP  EHM computational pathway Develop RSQSim workflows Other simulators? Generate RSQSim catalogs for UCERF3 fault system Derive empirical probability distributions to condition UCERF forecasting variables Prototype physics-based ERF using RSQSim Couple UCERF3 to the CyberShake (LA region) Demonstrate UCERF3-ETAS  CyberShake as OEF prototype Submit a short-term ERF for CSEP testing UCERF3-ETAS?

Collaboratory for Interseismic Simulation and Modeling (CISM) Key Personnel and Responsibilities SCEC Directors, T. Jordan (USC) and G. Beroza (Stanford) will lead the project SCEC Executive Science Director for Special Projects will manage science SCEC AD for Administration, J. McRaney (USC), will manage administration SCEC IT Architect, P. Maechling (USC), will oversee collaboratory development, supported by professional software engineers based at USC Geophysicists J. Dieterich and K. Richards-Dinger (UC Riverside) will lead the development of physics-based rupture simulators Computer scientist Y. Cui (SDSC) will coordinate HPC code development CSEP lead scientist, M. Werner (U. Bristol), will coordinate CSEP activities with CISM Chair of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, N. Field (USGS, Golden), will coordinate CISM activities with the USGS program in operational earthquake forecasting

CISM Working Groups – Year 1 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities Chair: Ned Field IT liaison: Kevin Milner RSQSim Working Group Chair(s): Jim Dieterich and/or Keith Richards-Dinger A-Team Chair: Dave Jackson CyberShake Working Group Chair: Christine Goulet IT liaison: Scott Callaghan CSEP Chair: Max Werner IT liaison: Masha Liukis

End

CISM Working Groups – Year 1 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities Chair: Ned Field IT liaison: Kevin Milner RSQSim Working Group Chair(s): Jim Dieterich and/or Keith Richards-Dinger A-Team Chair: Dave Jackson CyberShake Working Group Chair: Christine Goulet IT liaison: Scott Callaghan CSEP Chair: Max Werner IT liaison: Masha Liukis

CISM ERF Objectives – Year 1 Develop formats for exchanging data across the ERF  GMP  EHM computational pathway Develop RSQSim workflows Other simulators? Generate RSQSim catalogs for UCERF3 fault system Derive empirical probability distributions to condition UCERF forecasting variables Prototype physics-based ERF using RSQSim Couple UCERF3 to the CyberShake (LA region) Demonstrate UCERF3-ETAS  CyberShake as OEF prototype Submit a short-term ERF for CSEP testing UCERF3-ETAS?

Notes on 2016 potential action items Develop standard formats for the various input Provide kinematic models for exploring pipeline to GMs and to evaluate slip speed issue. Develop suite of test cases for evaluating parameter sensitivities. Jacqui ran a lot of those, but do that for various cases/fault geometries. Formalize test cases and develop tools to compute statistics on differences. Comparisons between RS off-fault and UCERF3-ETAS. Could be done for a few cases taken from the RS catalog. Also could compare similar ruptures in RS and see how similar or different they are. Produce 50 catalogs after issues with MRIs fixed (representation of epistemic uncertainty). Define computational needs (Jim and Keith) so that SCEC can provide the best resources (cluster, BlueWaters, etc.). Going from discrete distributions to OEF. One option could be to develop efficient code for annealing from catalog. Explore other options?