A15: High School Graduate Trends Peace Bransberger WICHE, Colorado

Fewer Grads in Total; More Non-White Grads

Fewer Grads in Total; More Non-White Grads GRADUATES IN 2025 1992 2007 2025 2032 2013 Trends for Total number of graduates, in Grey, are:  Peaked ~ 2010  - 2.4% to + 3.0% per year to 2025  Early 2030s -- back to 2008 levels For White graduates, in Blue:  Declines ongoing (since 2007)  - 0.5% grads per year to 2025  Early 2030s -- back to 1992 levels Hispanics are where the increases come from, and it represents fundamental changes in the composition of the graduating classes. Currently, the ratio of Hispanic:White grads is 1:3; 2025 and thereafter, about 1:2 Over the next 7 to 8 years, for every 1 fewer White grad, there will be 1 and then eventually 2 additional Hispanic grads  + 22k / +3% grads per year to 2025  80%+ of all additional grads  Early 2030s -- back to 2020 levels Black graduates continue to be a substantial portion, from 12 to 14 percent of the total, about the same or slightly fewer in number in each coming year. But, they are now only about 2/3s of the number of Hispanic graduates, and are projected to be about half the number of Hispanic graduates from 2025 on. Asian/Pacific Islander graduates increase in numbe in each coming year, from 184k to 241k About 50 percent increase over the next 15 years but there will be about 1 Asian graduate per every 3 to 4 Hispanic graduates. American Indian graduates are about 1 percent. Given the strong influence of non-White students, there are frequently questions about immigrants. About 25% of children live in immigrant families—whether they themselves are US citizens or not. And, as much as 10 percent of public school students might live in families that have some level of undocumented status. As for DACA, of August 2016, California’s estimated 387,000 applications and 359,000 approvals. Texas, 220,000 applied, and nearly 200,000 of those have been approved.

Regional Variation Avg. Annual Change 2000- 2013 2013- 2025 South 2.6% 0.6% West 2.1% 0.2% Midwest 0.8% -0.4% Northeast 1.6% -0.5%

 Fewer graduates  About the same  More graduates Growth or Decline  Fewer graduates  About the same  More graduates

(Compared to states’ recent or new projected high number) South Growth Regions Additional grads from Texas and Florida account for ~80% of all additional U.S. grads by 2025 California may have seen its high year, or very near so Whether growing or contracting, state trends largely driven by Hispanic grad trends In California, 60k more Hispanic grads by 2025, then almost that many fewer by 2030s West (Compared to states’ recent or new projected high number)

(Compared to states’ recent or new projected high number) Midwest Regions in Decline 24 of the U.S. states do not have a new high projected 14 states have a small new increase between 2013 & 2025, but it doesn't exceed their prior high 10 states are in perpetual decline 16 of the states with little increase or none at all are in the Midwest and Northeast Northeast (Compared to states’ recent or new projected high number)

Compared to 2013 by State 2020 2030 Nation: -0.1% Nation: -4.0% 2025 See Knocking pages 20-23 for Top 10 States & state annual change.

Total Graduates, 2013 to 2020 Midwest Northeast South West Proportional to % of region. Change from 2013 to 2020.  Fewer  About the same  More

Total Graduates, 2013 to 2025 Midwest Northeast South West Proportional to % of region. Change from 2013 to 2025.  Fewer  About the same  More

Racial/Ethnic Diversity  White  Hispanic  Black  Asian  American Indian  Private schools Fewer White graduates bring down the total, but there are additional graduates in virtually every state.

Fewer Grads in Total; More Non-White Grads Graduate populations that increase in most states are Hispanic Black Asian White Private school graduates are decreasing in most states 2025 compared to 2013 Percent Change in Total No. of HSGs

Increase for Most States in the South  White  Hispanic  Black  Asian  Am. Ind.  Private Average annual change from 2013 to 2025.

Growth in Western States Mitigated by Slowdown from California  White  Hispanic  Black  Asian  Am. Ind.  Private Average annual change from 2013 to 2025.

The Midwest: Strong Minority Graduate Increases But Steep Downturn of White Graduates  Hispanic  Black  Asian  Am. Ind.  Private Average annual change from 2013 to 2025.

Decreases for All Northeast States Except New York  White  Hispanic  Black  Asian  Am. Ind.  Private Average annual change from 2013 to 2025.

Increase of First Generation Students Children Ages 5 to 17 in 2015 Families with Children Ages 0 to 8 in 2012 Race/ Ethnicity Total Millions Parent with Assoc. or Higher White 26.9 61% Hispanic 12.1 25% Asian 2.4 70% Black 6.7 35% Income Total Millions Parent with Assoc. or Higher All Families 11.9 47% < 200% Fed. Poverty Level 7.9 21% >= FPL 4.0 68% Source: NCES 2015 Digest of Education Statistics, Table 104.70, from American Community Survey (ACS) data. Source: Population Reference Bureau, analysis of data from 2012 ACS PUMS file.

More Students from Lesser Means Income Distribution of Households With Children, U.S., 2010-2014 More Students from Lesser Means Asian 1.8M White 20M All Races Medians  HHs with children -- All Households Distribution (95% of families) Each bar segment is 20% of the families Black 4.3M Hispanic 6.6M American Community Survey PUMS Five-Year Estimates