Ecosystem-based fisheries management procedures for the Northeast US: coupling ecological and economic models to quantify societal and ecological tradeoffs Gavin Fay1, Sarah Gaichas2, Geret DePiper2, Robert Gamble2, Jason Link2 gfay@umassd.edu @gavin_fay The performance of options for ecosystem-based fisheries management must be tested with respect to operational objectives that encompass both ecological and socioeconomic goals. We explore alternatives for simplifying fisheries management using a multispecies/ecosystem-based management procedure, and use ecosystem models for the Northeast US continental shelf marine ecosystem to demonstrate the approach and evaluate management performance. For one end-to-end ecosystem model, we link the harvest output from management scenarios to an input-output regional economic model for the Northeast US to calculate changes in socio-economic indicators (such as jobs and earnings). 1. 2.

Ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) Addresses tradeoffs among sectors to reflect multiple and possible conflicting management objectives. Ecosystem models Can be used to quantify tradeoffs associated with alternative management strategies. Options for EBFM must be tested with respect to operational objectives that encompass both ecological and socioeconomic goals.

Coupling economic and ecological models Approaches in the Northeast US Ecosystem Based Management Procedure for Georges Bank finfish fishery Whole of System Modeling: Linking Atlantis ecosystem model to Input-Output model for Northeast US economy. Two parts of the talk. First: MSE to test ecosystem based control rules Second: Coupled ecological – economic models using whole of system approach.

Ecosystem-based management procedures: Georges Bank finfish fishery Goosefish Silver Hake Dogfish WinterSkate Herring Mackerel Winter Fl Haddock Yellowtail Fl Cod Predation Competition 10 interacting species Multispecies operating model Limit on total removals for the ecosystem / aggregate groups. Thresholds in Ecological Indicator responses to drivers Aggregate modeling – multispecies MSY Minimum stock size thresholds for individual species 10 interacting species Several multispecies assessment models Multispecies operating model Simulation testing of Each assessment model (multiple structures) Multi-model inference Ecosystem indicators Management procedures Harvest advice ultimate goal S. Gaichas et al. In Review

Ecosystem-based management procedures: Georges Bank finfish fishery 10 interacting species Multispecies operating model Limit on total removals for the ecosystem / aggregate groups. Thresholds in Ecological Indicator responses to drivers Aggregate modeling – multispecies MSY Minimum stock size thresholds for individual species Guidance for optimizing the species mix Constrained by technical interactions Bio-economic portfolio analysis Large et al. 2013. ICES J Mar Sci. Approaches to setting reference points Make use of indicator thresholds Final component is to add the economic constraints that provide flexibility in targeted species mix S. Gaichas et al. In Review Gaichas et al. 2012. MEPS

Ecosystem Indicators as reference points Indicator-based control rules improved performance over single-species with respect to system catch and biodiversity objectives. But what about economic performance? Previous work showed: When using Indicators as part of multispecies fishery control rules Can get improved performance over single-species FMSY control rules (shown in cross hairs) Total catch Biodversity Interannual variability in catch Systemic perfromance measures, but do these control rules optimize revenue? Fay et al. 2016. ICES J Mar Sci 72: 1285-1296.

Optimizing species mix using Portfolio Analysis Do portfolios of species exist that reduce risk of return? Evaluate performance of management strategies by comparing portfolio risk to the efficiency frontier at that revenue. Strategies that included ecosystem indicators in control rules halved risk gap. Next Step: Include optimal portfolios as part of management procedure. Use portfolio theory to create risk of return given a mix of species in the catch. Desire to minimize risk of obtaining a certain level of revenue - represented by the efficiency frontier. Option b is suboptimal to a because it provides the same expected return but at greater risk. Assess the performance of mgmt strategies to efficiency frontier

Optimizing species mix using Portfolio analysis Do portfolios of species exist that reduce risk of return? Evaluate performance of management strategies by comparing portfolio risk to the efficiency frontier at that revenue. Strategies that included ecosystem indicators in control rules halved risk gap. Next Step: Include optimal portfolios as part of management procedure. Used MSE results from previous analysis For each simulation, calculated average ‘risk gap’ (distance to efficiency frontier) of simulation outcomes during application of management strategy. Indicator-based control rules were almost twice as efficient economically than the single-species control rules that did not use ecosystem indicators.

Coupling economic and ecological models Approaches in the Northeast US Ecosystem Based Management Procedure for Georges Bank finfish fishery Whole of System Modeling: Linking Atlantis ecosystem model to Input-Output model for Northeast US economy. Two parts of the talk. First: MSE to test ecosystem based control rules Second: Coupled ecological – economic models using whole of system approach.

Whole of System Modeling approach Run Management Scenarios in Atlantis. Fishery yield from Atlantis fed to regional economic model for Northeast US. Consequences of management action for regional economy and employment.

Atlantis Northeast US 45 Functional Groups 18 Fishing fleets Pelagic 50 120+ 300+ Sediment Epibenthic Pelagic Atlantis Northeast End to end model Sunlight to dinnerplate 40+ ecological groups 18 fishing fleets Run scenarios given different management options – system wide consequences 3 simple fishing scenarios Maintain current level of fishing effort Halve current fishing effort Double current fishing effort 18 Fishing fleets Link JS, Gamble RJ, Fulton EA. 2011. NEUS – Atlantis: Construction, Calibration, and Application of an Ecosystem Model with Ecological Interactions, Physiographic Conditions, and Fleet Behavior. NOAA Tech Memo NMFS NE-218 247 p. Available at http://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/nefsc/publications/.

Economic model: Northeast region input-output model (NERIOM) Develop from IMPLAN Pro System Translates seafood sector revenue to supporting industries’ sales, income, and employment. Additional societal indicators than Atlantis. Three simple Scenarios Maintain current level of fishing effort Halve current fishing effort Double current fishing effort Steinback & Thunberg. 2006. NOAA Tech Memo NMFS NE 188 3 simple fishing scenarios Maintain current level of fishing effort Halve current fishing effort Double current fishing effort

Systemic indicators reveal disproportionate ecological and economic outcomes Large ecological responses. Tradeoffs in catch and biomass of species groups. Economic indicators responded similarly to fishery yield. Changes in Sales did not match those in landed catch. Little change to average income, but lower under both alternative effort scenarios. Economic indicators for the region responded similarly to fishery yield. Total sales being reduced by 26% under the reduced effort scenario and increasing 19% over base under the increased scenario. Similar effects were seen with respect to total income and total employment for the Northeast region, resulting in very small changes to overall average income Proportional increase in sales under increased feffort scenario (+19%) does not match the increase in total landed catch (+46%), as increases in yield under this scenario are generally for lower value species groups. these results do serve to demonstrate that the consequences of management scenarios may be felt disproportionately through the region in addition to over sectors. Fay et al. In Prep.

Aggregate indicators can mask variable outcomes for individual sectors Fishing sectors There were distinct regional differences in the magnitudes of effects for the changed effort scenarios, reflecting the differences in species and fleets associated with the various ports. Sectors at top of plot: Systemic / Whole Industries. At bottom fishing sectors are split out, more variable responses, tradeoffs among sectors. Fay et al. In Prep.

Operationalizing EBFM: Strategies must address tradeoffs among species and balance management objectives. Hierarchical management procedures allow for flexibility in the mix of fished species. Ecosystem based control rules appear to be more economically efficient. Coupled modeling retains detail of both economic and ecological systems to provide additional performance measures. Tradeoffs in economic outcomes for regions and sectors can be expected as well as those for individual species catch and biomass. Ecosystem-based control rule better balanced tradeoff between ecological and economic goals. Challenge is to do this without creating burden of additional complexity and management cost. Input-output models offer considerable industry detail to determine linkages and to generate estimates of indirect and induced multiplier effects. Spatial resolution of the NERIOM model clearly provides information at scales relevant to fisheries management decision-making in the Northeast US, although we largely focused on super-regional scales here. Our approach lacks feedback mechanisms from the economic back to the ecological sub-model. Input-output analysis is static. Effects should therefore be viewed as the immediate/short-term impacts of the change being analyzed. simple scenarios provide an easy way to demonstrate economic effects at the regional level Applied in a multi-model inference context, our worked example provides a framework for evaluating the tradeoffs between management simplicity, risk, yield, and biomass status at both multispecies fisheries and whole-of-system scales.

Next Steps Thank you! gfay@umassd.edu www.thefaylab.com @gavin_fay Funding: NOAA QUEST program NOAA Fisheries and the Environment Include optimal portfolios as part of management procedure. Use expected revenue to drive distribution of fishing effort in Atlantis.

Fishing with threshold-based limit on exploitation: ecological benefits with little economic cost